Research about basketball under – over betting

I am starting a quick research on a few different strategies about betting on under or over at basketball games. I will use WNBA because it is only one major championship where matches are on right now. Few words about those different strategies: the first one I have used before in NBA last regular season. I follow the under

Backing the favourites with odds higher than 2.2. The stats for June!

As I posted earlier I followed the soccer matches where the favorite had coefficient more than 2.2. The first few days the results were amazing. 53% of the games finished with wins for the favorites. Here are the final stats for the month.

Favorite’s wins = 46%
Draws = 25%
Underdog’s wins = 29%

All this is from 124 matches played in June. I must say here that those 124 matches would be played just for a weekend in regular football months as September for example.


England U21 vs Sweden U21 – 1

I will make another bet against the hosts. It is nothing against them as a team, but they simply are not too good for England. A bit more, they have to stand up against fresh and relaxed, after a match pause England squad. Manager Stuart Pearce left all eleven start ups out of the last match against Germany, after the perfect start with qualification with two wins in first two games.

Theo Walcott, Joe Hart, Martin Cranie, Micah Richards, Nedum Onuoha, Kieran Gibbs, Lee Cattermole, Fabrice Muamba, Mark Noble, James Milner and Agbonlahor are the names of the players who missed the match with Germany.

Sweden made it through after a win against Serbia, but didn’t convince me they are good enough. I think England will show their potential here and they will win against young Swedish.

Something more, in stage like semis one of the most important part of winning is the experience. I think we can not even compare both teams here.

So, what we have? More experience player for England, more relaxed players, hmm again for England and better players again for England. What else can we bet here except to back England? The answer is nothing.

Shouldn’t we bet on French League?

Is there something special in French League 1. I found an article in another blog that we shouldn

Brann – Aalesund Under 2.5

It is a bit risky bet and I know many punters will bet here over. More of them believe Brann will win with many and of course Aalesund can score a goal. Of course this scenario can happen. What I think about this match?

First of all. As far I know Kjetil Rekdall as V?lerenga coach he likes to play really safety in those type of matches. He usually fill the midfield with many players which does not give so much opportunities to the other team.

My words up there are proved by the statistic. Aalesund gives only 3.64 opportunities per match for the opposite team – 6 best in the league. Brann is a bit better with only 3.21 – second best in defense, after RBK.

At the other hand Brann sees difficulties in last games against Aalesund. They lost all of them. This is why Jan Gunnar Solli said for Aftenposten, that three loses in a row are far too match. I know that Brann will probably win this one, but it will be tough and I hope it will be scoreless. A match in the middle of the field with not so many opportunities for the strikers.

Nevertheless the odds are high – 2.3 for under.

Brunei DPMM vs Geylang 1

Some wise men have been said the match can’t be compared with another match, but I will make exactly this with my bet today. 11 days ago Brunei DPMM defeated Geylang with 5:3 in League Cup match and I don’t see anything which will prevent the same result to happen again.

However there are some problems in Brunei DPMM squad. The midfielder Ivan Jerkovic will miss the next 8 matches for the team after surgery. He will be replaced by Azwan Salleh.

The team spirit is high after winning the League Cup and this is what the coach Vjeran Simunic liked most. “We respect Geylang, they are a very good team. It will be a tough game,” he said for the team official site. “It will be a crucial match tonight as Brunei DPMM are trying to close the gap on current league leaders Gombak Utd and also to extend our points from Tampines whom are just a point behind.”, Simunic added.

So the percents for this match to end with home win are high enough to back Brunei DPMM and I am going to do it.

Bet under on Phoenix matches in WNBA

I am going to bet under on next five Phoenix games with martingale. I know it is a bit dangerous and I can lose all my bank, but I’ve got some reasons. From the beginning of WNBA Phoenix played 8 matches and all of them are over.

The longest strike of over I know about was New York’s last season with 12 overs in a row.

I think Phoenix will make at least one under in the next few games. So, crossing fingers.


Sweden U21 vs Serbia U21 2 DNB

I am totally against all people who think the hose will do something in this tournament. I wrote why few days ago and the main reason for that is the tournament preparation where the coach duo used 70 players, before choosing the needed 22. I think Serbia is better prepared here and they will take what they need and this is a win.

Nothing else is enough for the Serbians if they want to qualify for the semis.

There are few problems in Serbia squad, but nothing so special. At the other side the Swedish coach duo will choose from everything they have.

I read a comment from a punter from Sweden. He/she wrote “Serbia knows how to win big games”. I agree with him and I will back them, but I will secure myself again with DNB.

Germany U21 vs England U21 Draw

The reasons for this pick are quite obvious. The draw will secure Germany’s place on the semifinals and also will give to England squad the first place in the group, which means they will avoided Italy in the next match. So, I bet for a draw here without having any pure football reasons.

Would we bet on French League 1?

As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.

I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right