United always wins!!!

Manchester United scored late goal to win against Aston Villa just few minutes ago. They probably will be on the first place in the Premier League after the last round, but this is not so important to me. Actually, as a fan of Arsenal this is awful situation, but this is the life. What is more important for me than this to see United again on the top is the next question.

Do you know the fact that United is a team which has not have sequence of five games without a win in the last 10 years?

I checked only the last ten, but there are may be more years without five games in a row without win for the red devils, which is great for martingale if you have enough money and balls to try it.
So, I checked what would be happened if I was played for United with martingale this year. Until today I would have ROI

A simple snooker betting system

Few days ago I wrote about my biggest mistake in martingale. I made it betting on snooker. Now, I bet on snooker in different way and I want to write about it. The system is really simple. I play only live and I play for the winner in every frame, if the odds allow me to do it.

I bet for the underdog in the frame when the odds reach some level. You know that when a player is on the table and make points after points the odds for the player who sits on his chair are going higher and higher. Here is my point. I simply wait until the odds reach the level I want and I bet for the underdog in this frame. Sometimes it is really nice to bet for Ronnie on 5 coefficient :).

Here is the example from today. 5 minutes ago the match between Stephen Hendry and Peter Ebdon finished. Ebdon won by 5:1, but the game was great and I think Hendry lost the match almost without making a single huge mistake.

What happened with my betting? Usually I bet when the odds go to 3 for the underdog. Today I did it with 5 coefficient for win for the man on the chair. Actually, sometimes the difference between 3 and 5 is about tho shots. It is about a punter’s stile of betting. If the punter want more bets and a bit safer then bet when the odds are lower, if you want bigger coefficients, just wait for few shots. However, the ROI is almost the same – about 120% in both ways.

So I wait until the odds are 5 for the underdog.

Frame 1: I bet for Hendry with coefficient of 5.5. The result at this time was 0-40 for Ebdon. I lost. Total for this match -1 unit.
Frame 2: I bet for Hendry with coefficient of 5.5. The result at this time was 0-18 for Ebdon. I lost. Total for this match -2 units.
Frame 3: I bet for Ebdon with coefficient of 5. The result at this time was 0-23 for Hendry. I won. Total for this match +2 units.
Frame 4: The bookie did not offer coefficient more than 3.75, so I did not bet.
Frame 5: The bookie did not offer coefficient more than 3.75, so I did not bet.
Frame 6: I bet for Hendry with coefficient of 5. The result at this time was 9-34 for Ebdon. I lost. Total for today +1 unit.

That is. I bet on straight 100 bets and then I calculate the ROI. The last sequence of 100 bets gave me 123.5 ROI.

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My biggest mistake with martingale

Right now, I am watching the snooker match between Dave Harold and Stephen Maguire and I remembered what I did few year ago. I want to share this with you, because it is very funny. I had brilliant idea about martingale system and I could not resist to try it which led to my biggest failure in betting.

I remember I walked on the street and thought something like: “Wow, this is great it can not be wrong. I am going to succeed”, well, now I am laughing for this street walk few years ago. I remembered a joke now about succeed, but you will find it on the bottom of this post 🙂 .

Then I also watched snooker and I found out that the underdog has more than 2 coefficient to win in every frame and also even Ronnie lose some frames, so my idea was simply to bet in live martingale for the underdog. Of course the betting would stop when the underdog get a frame in 5 from 9 games and some frames in longer games.

Even now, I do believe there is some point in this system, but I don’t dare to try it again. What happened? Neel Robertson played with some player, I can’t recall his name now and easily won with 5-0 and I lost everything I had.

However, I must say it again, this system can be profitable, but it has to be played very carefully.

Now, the joke. May be many of you know about it, but anyway. So, we have a man climbing Everest. On the 4000 meters a beautiful blond woman stop him and told him: “Do you want sex with me or you want to succeed?” The man answered: “I want to succeed!”. The same situation happened again on the 6000 meters, but with beautiful brown hair woman and the answer was the same.

The final result here is that on the top of Everest, strong black man came up and simply said to the man: “Hello, my friend. My name is Seed!” 🙂 That is 🙂

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More about my simple betting system

Yesterday when I read the comment by Robert (thank you for your interest:)) about my simple NBA betting system I started to think about other sports and leagues where this system can be used. Few words about this system. It is really easy. When I am going to bet I check the percent of under and over endings for both teams in the match. If the sum for over percent is higher I bet over, if it is under I bet under.

The system is profitable. It gives around 50-50 which I use in modified for safety reasons martingale system. For example, yesterday I had 9 winners and only 1 lose. It was really pleasure to watch the games 🙂

OK about the system in other sports and leagues.

First of all the news are not good. I can see this system working only in NBA and WNBA. Probably it can be used in NCAAB, but the odds there are lower than in NBA. At the other hand this is not a problem for martingale.

In Europe we also have basketball leagues where I can try with this system, but here the problem is very few matches in those leagues. For example every team in NBA play more than 90 matches per year (including play-offs), in Germany the regular season is 34 games for every team. 34 games is the season in Israel too, but I am not 100% sure about it.

Where is the problem when you have only 34 matches. It is simply uncomfortable. The punter must wait for minimum 10 games for safety reasons and to be clearer which team in which direction, under or over is going and after this the punter will have only 24 games left to bet.

May be Korea is a variant with 54 games for every team, but the season there starts in August. I found those leagues in bet365, may be somewhere a bookie offers more leagues.

I will post more about other sports tomorrow, but by now I saw opportunity only in handball. Tennis, soccer and Ice Hockey does not work at all and the reason is the fixed score (2,5 for soccer, 5,5 for hockey) and odds between 1,4 to 2,2.

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A simple NBA betting system

No football matches today, so it is perfect time for a NBA post. Now, it is about under-over betting and a system that I use and a system that gives me really good profit. It is really simple. First of all I follow all the matches in the league and write down on an excel table, for every team

The golden rule of betting

My really poor start of this 100 Hot matches sequence, 5 of 5 wrong remind me about the golden rule of betting. Never, never and never change the system you are using. Do not change your percent of the bank for the next bet and do not change the way you make your tips.

If you win or if you lose, there is no difference. Many smart punters know they will reach those 50% or whatever percent the punter usually hits and the start does not matter at all. The most important is the final result.

However, I have never started with 5 wrong 🙁 When I saw Bury’s equalizer in the last minute against Rotheram I felt terrible, but tomorrow I will wake up, I will push the button and I will find those Hot matches, which will bring me back over 100% ROI.

Or at least I hope so 🙂

Good night everyone.

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Bet on underdog at home! True or false? The answer about NBA

I wrote few days ago that I’ve read something about this old betting rule –

Good discution

I do not have much time this weekend (lot of matches and my girlfriend is with me), so I do not have much time to think about betting systems, but I found an interesting discution. It is about draws in soccer and how to use them. Also the punter giving picks has an incredible result – 66% rate of correct draws. In that discution I read also a lot of math information 🙂

It was nice to read it. Here is the link

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Moenchengladbach – Bochum Under 0:1

Is it possible Moenchengladbach – Bochum to score under 2.5 goals in this match? Moenchengladbach has scored 8 goals in last two games and has scored in every match in the last ten without the match against Stuttgart 0:2. At the other hand the last 4 away games for Bochum finished under. Could the Bochum’s defense hold the attack present by Moenchengladbach? I think yes.

For me this match is something around 1:0 or 2:0 for the host.

VfL Bochum’s defender Marc Pfertzel has been suspended for two games and will miss the game, but the striker Diego Klimowicz is back in team training.

Line-ups as expected, taken by bundeliga.de:

M?nchengladbach: Bailly – Stalteri, Brouwers, Daems, Levels – Galasek, Bradley – Baumjohann – Matmour, Friend, Marin

Bochum: Fernandes – Concha, Fabian, Mavraj, Fuchs – Sestak, Dabrowski, Imhof, Azaouagh – Epalle, Klimowicz

I’ll say it again. I believe more of Bochum’s defense rather than Moenchengladbach’s attack. So I will bet here on Under for 2.2 odds.

It is really funny

This is my first blog, as I said in my previous post, but it is really cool. The ability to write what you want and to know that somebody will read it is incredible 🙂 Right now I am looking how to put some analytic program like google analytics to find out how many people read it 🙂

Something about betting. Yesterday I read something about the old story that underdog at home is the best way to place your bet. I did quick research to find out that if you play in that way in NBA (I checked the last 20 games in betexplorer.com) for your 20 units you will receive 20.56 not much, but who know…
I did the same thing in football, of course we have to consider the fact that in soccer we do have three possible endings against two in basketball (I did not disturbed myself with Asian handicap and DNB in this little research) and the results were the same. I checked English League One and Two. The results were around 102% ROI.
In betexplorer I use average odds. so the ROI can be a bit different. I will check more of this tonight.

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