Manchester City – Newcastle 17.08 – Premier League 1 round

My prediction for Manchester City versus Newcastle – over 3 goals with odds 2 given by bet365

One of the biggest questions before the match between Manchester City and Newcastle is how the host from Manchester will play under the guidance of their new coach – Manuel Pellegrini. Many claim that City will lose most of their pragmatic football and begin to receive many goals compared to the team led by Roberto Mancini. Of course, this should be compensated by the greater power in the attack, but it is a bad news for Joe Hart and defenders in front of him.

The transfer of Kolo Toure and its successful start with Liverpool showed that the defense of Manchester City has opened a hole that must be filled. However, Manchester City has enough class defenders in their team, but how will they adjust to the style of Pellegrini is another huge topic when we do our betting predictions.

When we talk about the offence players in Manchester City, then the issue becomes quite different. If anyone should bet on which team will score the most goals in the Premier League, the most common answer would certainly be – Manchester City.

Newcastle on the other hand definitely have huge problems. The team has done almost nothing on the transfer market (which is especially important in the Premier League) and continues with the team that felt so serious difficulties last year.

There is hardly any heavier option for Newcastle to start the season than the hungry for goals Manchester City. However, the chance that Newcastle has is to be able to get something from the City’s mistakes which could come from Manuel Pellegrini still unaccustomed to football in the Premier League tactic.

So, the class that the City’s attackers have and these opportunities that I expect the guests will have make me expect goals in this match. That is why I am going to bet for over 3 goals scored in this match with odds of 2 offered by bet365.

Here is a video with the last match between these two.

Sweden vs Ireland WC qualification

Sweden welcomes Ireland in a qualifying match for the World Cup in Group C. A match that will be really important for both teams, as it is clear that the biggest favorite for the top spot in the group is the team of Germany.

ireland-300x223So far, both teams are going more than well. Their only missteps were against Germany as Ireland had catastrophic loss with 1:6, while the Swedes made a little miracle, managed to finish 4-4 as a guest in Munich, although trailed by 0-4 in the 62nd minute.

In their other matches both teams have won against Kazakhstan and Faeroe Islands.

At first glance, it appears that the victory for the Swedes is mandatory. A home match against a direct competitor is something that should not be missed. It is felt by everyone in Sweden and according to the latest news, all match tickets have been already sold.

A possible draw in the match would be a great result for the guests who would have the benefit to play on the home ground next time.

The two teams have not played each other since 2006 when the match were in control of Ireland team which surprisingly won with 3-0.

However, what is the most important is the strength of the two teams at the moment. I think the Swedes are an absolute favorite in this match, but the problem is that the bookies felt it too and offer too low rate for their victory, just 1.5.

ireland-300x223Ireland should not be underestimated so lightly. That’s why I will turn to other market, namely Both teams to score. Both Sweden and Ireland show holes in their defense, the Irish have conceded a goal in each of their three games so far. Swedes in turn managed to keep a clean sheet only against Kazakhstan. To see the Faeroe Islands to score against you hardly speaks well of your defense capabilities.

On the other hand, the coefficient for Yes on Both teams to score is more than good – 2.1. I think the chances of seeing a match with many goals and at least one goal in both nets is much higher than 45% and that is why it would be my bet for this match.

Bryne vs Brann – an away win

One of the favourites for the title in Norway – Brann Bergen will play its final friendly match before the start of the season against a team from the second division in the country – Bryne. Generally, in such friendly matches it is usual the opponent to be a much weaker team so the bigger team to enter into the championship with a big win. brann2Moreover, the first meeting of the new season for Brann is against a very tough opponents – Vålerenga where the victory is mandatory and it will be really tough to get it.

This is why I expect a full mobilization of the Brann’s players, although the match is a friendly. In the played friendly matches so far the players from Bergen didn’t play particularly well. In six matches they have achieved only one victory against Las Palmas with 3-1. In addition to this victory, the team scored four draw against Varden, Estrella, Molde and Sadnes Ulf and conceded a defeat with 1:2 in their last friendly match against Kongsvinger.

Surely not particularly impressive results, but Bryne didn’t perform much better. In their friendly matches the team from Adeccoligaen had four losses, two wins against much weaker opponents and a draw.

Because of all said above for me a betting prediction for a win for Brann with coefficient of 1.4, proposed by Bet365 seems justified and will play it.

Chelsea – Arsenal 20.01.2013

Arsenal is having a terrible season so far and unfortunately for all the fans of Arsenal Arsene Wenger obviously has no exact idea how to make thing better. It is clear to everyone that he is trying. It is clear that the players are doing their best to get out of the crisis. It was clearly demonstrated by their constant attempts to turn back the match with Manchester City, although they player for a long time playing with 10 versus 11 and they were losing with 0-2. demba-baIt was remarkable how they pushed even in the 90th minute and tried to turn the things in their favor.

On the other hand, the team of Chelsea is presented fairly soulless in the last matches, despite several great victories which they made under Benitez. A lot of experienced players in the squad already know that Chelsea won’t be their team in the next season and the story for the poor form of Fernando Torres is legendary. However, Chelsea made a very good move, adding Demba Ba, in the team, who scored already his first two goals.

How will Chelsea and Arsenal end on Sunday? Let’s see what the statistics show. wilshere-walcott_2436049bChelsea is the team in England which let least number of goals at home, only 8. Meanwhile, Arsenal are the team with the least goals allowed as a guest – 9. The gunners allowed an average 8.64 points goals attempt to their opponents, which is also a result among the best in the league. Only Tottenham and Manchester City have better numbers.

Clearly, the problems of both teams won’t be the defense. In fact, we can distinguish two spots where will both teams have problems. At Chelsea it will surely be the unbalanced team the have where they have too many creative players and none of so called hard worker who can stop the opponent’s attacks. Arsenal’s problem is that they simply can not score enough. To have Theo Walcott as your main goalscorer is just frivolous.

Anyway, this is a match between two teams who will compete for places in the Champions League. When we talk about any derby in the Premier League the most important becomes the spirit in the both teams. At this point, the guests from Arsenal have the greater spirit and this is why I think they won’t lose the match. The proposal of Bet365 for Arsenal not losing the match is 2, which is certainly good and will be my bet in this match.

The NBA season so far in numbers

The NBA season is on its 20th round and it seems now is the time to make the first analyzes of how the teams are playing this season. Without any doubt, the most impressive thing so far in NBA is Lakers’ extremely poor performance. Whit their players they should be competing for the first place, but with Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Steve Nash on the list, they are below the 50 percent mark.

One of the most popular betting option for basketball matches is betting on under and over total scored points by both teams. What the statistics show about teams performances with this score line?

Here are all the results of basketball matches, played so far. In the first column are the teams. Then there are two columns with the number of matches completed with under and over. The last two columns are respectively for the percentages of matches completed under and over:

Отбори U O % %
Boston 10 10 50 50
Brooklyn 12 8 60 40
New York 7 12 37 63
Philadelphia 9 12 43 57
Toronto 10 11 48 52
Dallas 9 11 45 55
Houston 8 12 40 60
Memphis 9 8 53 47
New Orleans 10 11 48 52
San Antonio 8 13 38 62
Chicago 14 6 70 30
Cleveland 11 10 52 48
Detroit 12 9 57 43
Indiana 12 9 57 43
Milwaukee 10 8 56 44
Denver 9 12 43 57
Minnesota 9 9 50 50
Portland 10 10 50 50
Oklahoma 10 11 48 52
Utah 10 11 48 52
Atlanta 9 9 50 50
Charlotte 8 11 42 58
Miami 9 10 47 53
Orlando 11 8 58 42
Washington 7 11 39 61
Golden State 7 14 33 67
LA Clippers 9 11 45 55
LA Lakers 9 12 43 57
Phoenix 9 11 45 55
Sacramento 10 11 48 52

What is most remarkable in the table above is the fact that the vast majority of the teams are near to the 50 percent. This is completely normal for NBA under – over betting. Usually from 30 teams in the league 22-25 finish close to 50%.

What make an impression though are three teams that are clearly distinguished from the rest. These are Chicago, Golden State and New York.

Clearly, Chicago for one or another reason is overrated by bookmakers offering bets for NBA matches. That’s why we have such a large percentage of matches that end with an under. The opposite can be said for Golden State, but this could be influenced by the time of the season we are now. Usually, in the beginning of the season the bookmakers give very low rates for under and over betting for total scored points. Probably this is the explanation for the Golden State’s high percentage of over ended matches.

There is an interesting thing that I saw in the last few seasons in NBA. It is that if a team is above 60% in this table after the first 20 matches it finished the season with the same percentage. It will be interesting to see will it happen again this season.

My predictions for 09.12

After a relatively successful betting yesterday, I hit two draws and that there will be more than 3 cards shown in the match between Chelsea and Sunderland with odds of 2 I will bet only on two matches today. Again, both are from the Premier League, where I will miss only the derby between Manchester United and Manchester City, because it is too unpredictable.

My bets for today are an over 2.5 goals scored in the match between Everton and Tottenham and a bet for the hosts West Ham against Liverpool. Here I bet on Asian Handicap market with a margin for West Ham 0;0.5 and coefficient of 1.85.

Betting predictions for 08.12.2012

My football predictions for today will be only from the Premier League. Today six league matches are going to be played and I’ve made ​​predictions for five of them. I will not make a bet only for the match between Southampton and Reading, as I could not find value anywhere.

Here are my predictions for the matches in the Premier League on December 8:

Wigan – QPR a draw with odds of 3.6
Swansea – Norwich a draw with odds of 3.6
Aston Villa – Stoke a draw with odds of 3.1
Arsenal – West Brom over 3 goals with odds of 2.025
Sunderland – Chelsea Over received 3 cards with odds of 2.05

Good luck with your predictions and bets 🙂

Europa League Stuttgart vs Molde

The season for the champion of Norway Molde is almost over and the match against Stuttgart will be their last before the long pause before the next season. Molde has no chance to move forward in the Europa League, which Ole Gunnar Solskjaer would hardly like. However, the team doubles the title at the local championship, which was the most important goal for the team.

Stuttgart’s chances to qualify for eliminations in Europa League are excellent, as the Germans are currently second in the group and a win here would qualify them for sure. If Steaua wins or draws the match away to Copenhagen, the Stuttgart will go ahead, no matter how the game with Molde finish.

For me there is no doubt that Stuttgart is the favorite in this game and their chances for a win are more than good. However, the important question is whether they are as strong as offers their odds of 1.16. I don’t think so.

Molde is a very good team that grabbed for the second time the title in Norway. Two miserable losses at home against Steaua Bucharest and Copenhagen predetermined their last place in the group, but it should be taken in mind that both games were during the most important games for Molde in Norway. Now the league is over and Solskjaer ‘s players can focus completely on the game against Stuttgart.

Furthermore, Molde made his only victory so far in the league against Stuttgart with 2:0 on October 4th. These two teams played against each other two seasons ago. The matches ended drawn 2:2 in Germany and 2:3 to Stuttgart in Molde.

Just for this reason, I think that a bet for a Molde win with margin of 2 goals in Asian Handicap with odds of 1.9 is more than secure. If Stuttgart wins by one goal, which is the most likely outcome, the bet will be a winner. If they win with two goals the bet would be refunded.

Champions League – Olympiakos vs Arsenal

The match between Olympiakos and Arsenal on Tuesday night probably will not change the final standings in the second group of Champions League. The Greek team can’t lose the third place nor to go through the second and the chances of Arsenal to finish as the leader in the group are connected with a victory in Greece and a loss or draw for Schalke as a guest of the French Montpelier.

Surely, where Arsenal will finish in the group is the smallest problem for Arsene Wenger. His players played so badly in the last few games that the group of fans who want his retirement had been growth for sure. The loss from Swansea at Emirates was another shock that the team’s fans had to accept.

Well, if Arsene Wenger was an inexperienced manager, surely he would throw all his strength to regain the respect of fans and players with a win of this match in the Champions League. However, Wenger is an old dog and knows that the season is long and now is concentrating on adding new players in the squad like Lampard, Fellaini and Huntelaar. He’s definitely looking ahead and I think he believes that the Premier League match against West Brom on Saturday is far more important then the clash versus Olympiakos in the Champions League.

That’s why I think the team which didn’t play particularly well in the recent matches would be even more weakened in order to prepare for the incoming match of the Premier League. As I see it from this angle, putting the hosts Olympiakos as outsiders in the match seems to me a bit strange. The Greeks would have done everything possible to beat their rivals for prestige, even though the game can’t change the final standings. Apart from this, they are in pretty good shape. For the last three months they have made just three losses. Indeed, all three are in the Champions League, two of Schalke 04 and one of the Arsenal players but Olympiakos showed very solid game against Schalke in the last game and quite miserably lost it with 1-0.

All this gives me all I need to make a betting prediction for the hosts in the match between Olympiakos and Arsenal. My bet will be on Asian Handicap with margin for Olympiakos 0;0.5 and odds of 1.75, given by Bet365.

Have a look on the video below which shows the match between Arsenal and Olympiakos ended with a win for the Gunners with 3:1

Betting on draws or on Ties for the half with the most goals in the match

There are not so many interesting matches today and this is why I decided to take some time for checking our a very interesting theory about betting. According to this theory, if you think a game will end in a draw, you can bet not for a draw, but for a tie on the Half with the most goals in the match.

This bet should secure you even if the match ended with a win to some of the opponents, but with the same amount of scored goals in both halves. The idea is simple. The most common draw result is 1:1, then immediately comes 0:0. Much rarer are draws with more goals like 2:2, 3:3 and so on.

When the draw is 0:0 it is clear that we have a tie of the number of goals scored in both halves. Where the draw is 1:1, it is clear that there are three possible combinations, however, it seems that the most common would be to have a goal in each half.

Apart from this, the odds for a tie in the number of goals scored in both halves is relatively higher than the odds for a draw. Usually Bet365’s proposal for this type of bet is 3.6 and more, with maximum around 5.

I did a quick check on the betting coupon for Tuesday, November 27. For that day we had twenty draws, of which 11 were with tie and 9 were with more goals in one or the other half. Of course, the question remains open, how many of our betting predictions for draws would have really come and how much would be covered by betting on tie for the Half with the most goals in the match.

I made another check, where I used betting my predictions for draws in this season of Barclays Premier League. Since the beginning of season 2012/2013 I’ve bet on draws 19 times. Of these 19 only 5 times the match ended in a tie in the number of goals scored in both halves, which is not the greatest result. With odds of 3.6, which is the most common for this bet in the Premier League, I would have bet 19 units and I would get back 18 or I would be back with one.

However, my success rate for direct betting of draws is much better. From 19 bets I have 8 wins which bring me a profit of 26.95 units or in other words a pure profit of nearly 8 units, which is much better result.

So, this option for securing when betting on draws perhaps deserves more attention, but at least I will stay with betting on simple draws.