Betting prediction for Sunderland vs QPR

QPR against Sunderland is the first match of the fourteenth round in the English Premier League and this is a match that is really difficult for a proper betting prediction. It is a match which could end in any way and generally said it is only for real betting experts. Both Sunderland and QPR have serious problems and that is why they are in the bottom of the table.

Sunderland’s poor performance this year is a major surprise for me. I believe Martin O’Neill is one of the best managers in the Premier League and his appearance at Sunderland 11 months ago proved it. With O’Neill as manager, the team made an incredibly strong series of matches without a single loss. I expected that series to continue and the team to become even better because of the fact O’Neill had the summer break to improve the squad. However, it didn’t happen and now Sunderland is on the 16th place with only 12 points.

In opposite I fully expected the QPR’s performance as in my opinion Mark Hughes was not the right manager for this team. The change was completely logical, since with these players and all the millions invested in the team it is just madness that they have won only four points from 13 matches. The arrival of Harry Redknapp is serious step forward in their development, as this is exactly the manager who can make the miracle and save QPR from relegation.

All this makes the match between Sunderland and QPR controversial and difficult to bet. Even more interesting is when we see the results from the last two matches between these two teams in which Sunderland managed to win twice.

However, there is one major difference between Sunderland from March and Sunderland today. The team just doesn’t create enough chances right now. They are one of the teams creating the least goal attempts per match – just 8. Only Aston Villa, Stoke, Norwich and the guests in this match – QPR have scored less than they have. The difference is that guests from QPR create goal attempts, but for one reason or another, fail to realize.

Moreover, in England happens quite often with the appointment of a new manager to get a temporary bump in the team. Exactly what I think will happen in this match between Sunderland and QPR.

The Asian handicap advantage for the guests proposed by Bet365 is 1.975 for 0, 0.5. In Sportingbet the offer is an away victory with Draw no bet for 2.15.

Two and a half years later

Hi to all who read this blog. It seems I haven’t posted anything for more than two years which is a really long, long time. I simply haven’t found the time to do it.

However, I haven’t stopped betting or trying to find some betting system which works. Unfortunately, with no great success. Today I checked my account on Bet365 and for the last six months I have won almost nothing, but I haven’t lost anything either, so my balance is great 🙂

For the last two years I have abandoned my main idea for getting the prediction from the betting odds given by the bookies. The simple reason for that is the fact I need to learn more about excel and VBA and I haven’t found the time to do it. When I am ready with it I will post here again.

For this period I have tried some betting systems about draws on soccer matches, under and over betting on NBA matches and some other options, but as I said with no great success.

I mostly do betting prediction for soccer matches from the biggest European championships which you can see at my other site – eurobetinfo.com. I try to make predictions every day and so far my success rate is good. I will be glad if you come and visit the site.

PS. If someone wants to help me and has the needed knowledge on excel and VBA, I will be glad if you contact me at my mail 🙂 Wish you all the best in your betting and many successful days.

Really important news for Hotmatches

This must be read from all people who follow my football tips at betsurf soccer hotmatches. It seems that the hotmatches has serious problem, which can lead to really strange and may be bad results.

As you can see the start this time wasn’t good at all and I started to investigate why. The reason is really simple.

For my soccer hotmatches I use my soccer database. In this database I have collected around 8000 matches and their results, grouped in sectors by the odds given from bookies for the favourite in the match.

For the odds I use average odds from different bookies given by betexplorer.com. They use to give average odds from a particular group of bookmakers, which group is being changed those days. Of course this means that I will get different results from this different group of bookies.

I will continue with my picks, but I will use small bank, just for experience. Right now I have started to fill another sheet of my database, where I use the odds only by one bookmaker, so this problem will not occur soon.

However, my new database will not be ready at least for two mounts.

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Finally 20% profit in hotmaches

I used more time and matches than I planned before, but I made it. I made 20% profit in football betting, 22% actually. Now it is time to cash and another sequence.

I needed 41 days and 71 matches for doing that.

Crossing fingers this time the period to be shortened.

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Who is the most overestimated team in NBA?

You know there is margin given by the bookies in every match in NBA. The idea of this margin is to make chances for both teams for winning the game even. I think here is a possibility for making money, cos not the players of the pitch decide who will win, but the house.

Here is a table about this margin in NBA, where you can see that some teams, like Lakers are really overestimated, but some teams like Atlanta are on opposition of that.

Here is the table:

Teams W L % %
Boston 16 21 43 57
New Jersey 13 26 33 67
New York 19 20 49 51
Philadelphia 17 22 44 56
Toronto 20 20 50 50
Dallas 17 22 44 56
Houston 23 17 58 43
Memphis 21 18 54 46
New Orleans 19 20 49 51
San Antonio 19 18 51 49
Chicago 18 18 50 50
Cleveland 20 21 49 51
Detroit 19 18 51 49
Indiana 17 22 44 56
Milwaukee 19 19 50 50
Denver 17 21 45 55
Minnesota 19 21 48 53
Portland 20 20 50 50
Oklahoma 24 16 60 40
Utah 24 16 60 40
Atlanta 26 13 67 33
Charlotte 20 15 57 43
Miami 18 18 50 50
Orlando 20 19 51 49
Washington 15 23 39 61
Golden State 19 19 50 50
LA Clippers 18 21 46 54
LA Lakers 17 24 41 59
Phoenix 20 20 50 50
Sacramento 22 15 59 41

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Another profitable hotmaches sequence

Yesterday I decided that my goal in betting must be 20% pure profit. That means I will have to start another series of hotmatches betting, because after 52 matches the profit was above 30%.

So, the new sequence of matches begins today. Crossing fingers for another profitable one.

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Bet on underdog at home in NBA – Don’t!

I read something about that way of betting which would be really profitable. The idea is simple where the underdog play at home bet for it and the margin that the bookies give.

Like most of those betting strategies this one doesn’t work or at least it does not work with NBA betting.

Here is my paper sheet with the first 100 matches where the underdog played at home. The ROI is 69.1% so I would lose 1/3 of my bank if I have been betting on that idea.

I started with 30 units and 3% of the bank for every bet.

Date
Match
Odds
Margin
Res.
Bank
+
All
%
ROI
13-Dec
Oklahoma – Cleveland
2.45
3.5
89:102
20.74
48
100
48.0
69.1
13-Dec
LA Clippers – San Antonio
2.9
5.5
90:115
21.74
48
99
48.5
72.5
13-Dec
Toronto – Houston
2.1
2
101:88
22.74
48
98
49.0
75.8
11-Dec
Toronto – Atlanta
2.55
4
89:111
21.84
47
97
48.5
72.8
11-Dec
Philadelphia – Houston
2.3
2.5
91:96
22.84
47
96
49.0
76.1
10-Dec
Detroit – Denver
3.5
7
101:99
23.84
47
95
49.5
79.5
10-Dec
Washington – Boston
3.6
7.5
102:104
22.93
46
94
48.9
76.4
10-Dec
Utah – Orlando
2.2
2.5
120:111
22.02
45
93
48.4
73.4
9-Dec
Minnesota – New Orleans
2.4
3
96:97
21.11
44
92
47.8
70.4
9-Dec
Houston – Cleveland
2.25
2.5
95:85
20.2
43
91
47.3
67.3
9-Dec
Indiana – Portland
2.6
4
91:102
19.29
42
90
46.7
64.3
8-Dec
LA Clippers – Orlando
3.4
7
86:97
20.29
42
89
47.2
67.6
8-Dec
Memphis – Cleveland
3.65
7.5
111:109
21.29
42
88
47.7
71.0
8-Dec
Charlotte – Denver
2.35
3
107:95
20.38
41
87
47.1
67.9
7-Dec
Philadelphia – Denver
3.35
6.5
83:93
19.47
40
86
46.5
64.9
7-Dec
New York – Portland
2.45
3.5
93:84
20.47
40
85
47.1
68.2
6-Dec
Sacramento – Miami
2.05
1.5
102:115
19.56
39
84
46.4
65.2
6-Dec
Milwaukee – Cleveland
3.35
6.5
86:101
20.56
39
83
47.0
68.5
5-Dec
Golden State – Orlando
4.75
9
118:126
21.56
39
82
47.6
71.9
5-Dec
Minnesota – Utah
3.65
7.5
108:101
20.65
38
81
46.9
68.8
4-Dec
New Jersey – Charlotte
2.35
3.5
97:91
19.74
37
80
46.3
65.8
4-Dec
Memphis – Dallas
3.2
5.5
98:82
18.83
36
79
45.6
62.8
4-Dec
Oklahoma – Boston
2.65
4.5
87:105
17.92
35
78
44.9
59.7
3-Dec
Golden State – Houston
2.05
1.5
109:111
18.92
35
77
45.5
63.1
2-Dec
LA Clippers – Houston
2.1
2
85:102
19.92
35
76
46.1
66.4
2-Dec
Minnesota – Memphis
2.35
3
95:97
20.92
35
75
46.7
69.7
2-Dec
New Jersey – Dallas
3.5
7
101:117
20.01
34
74
45.9
66.7
1-Dec
New York – Phoenix
3.6
7
126:99
21.01
34
73
46.6
70.0
1-Dec
Charlotte – Boston
2.55
4
90:108
20.1
33
72
45.8
67.0
29-Nov
New York – Orlando
3.1
6
102:114
21.1
33
71
46.5
70.3
29-Nov
Miami – Boston
2.55
4
85:92
22.1
33
70
47.1
73.7
29-Nov
Toronto – Phoenix
2.25
3
94:113
23.1
33
69
47.8
77.0
29-Nov
Detroit – Atlanta
3.2
6
94:88
24.1
33
68
48.5
80.3
28-Nov
Milwaukee – Orlando
3.3
6.5
98:100
23.19
32
67
47.8
77.3
28-Nov
Golden State – LA Lakers
4.75
9
97:130
22.28
31
66
47.0
74.3
27-Nov
Minnesota – Phoenix
5.25
9.5
95:120
23.28
31
65
47.7
77.6
27-Nov
Indiana – Dallas
2.25
3
92:113
24.28
31
64
48.4
80.9
27-Nov
Houston – San Antonio
2
1
84:92
25.28
31
63
49.2
84.3
27-Nov
Charlotte – Cleveland
2.8
5
94:87
26.28
31
62
50.0
87.6
27-Nov
Philadelphia – Atlanta
2.8
5
86:100
25.39
30
61
49.2
84.6
25-Nov
Minnesota – Denver
4.25
8.5
111:124
26.39
30
60
50.0
88.0
25-Nov
Detroit – Cleveland
2.85
5
88:98
27.39
30
59
50.8
91.3
22-Nov
Toronto O1 – Orlando U1
2.35
3.5
96:104
28.39
30
58
51.7
94.6
22-Nov
New York U2 – Boston U2
5.5
10
105:107
29.39
30
57
52.6
98.0
21-Nov
New Orleans O1 – Atlanta O4
2.7
4.5
96:88
28.48
29
56
51.8
94.9
20-Nov
LA Clippers U1 – Denver O1
4.75
9
106:99
27.57
28
55
50.9
91.9
20-Nov
Golden State U1 – Portland U1
4
8
108:94
26.66
27
54
50.0
88.9
20-Nov
Indiana U2 – Cleveland O5
2.75
5
95:105
25.75
26
53
49.1
85.8
19-Nov
New Orleans – Phoenix
3.75
8
110:103
26.75
26
52
50.0
89.2
18-Nov
Minnesota – Houston
3.05
5.5
84:97
25.84
25
51
49.0
86.1
18-Nov
Washington – Cleveland
2.7
4.5
108:91
26.84
25
50
50.0
89.5
17-Nov
Sacramento – Chicago
2.25
3
87:101
25.93
24
49
49.0
86.4
17-Nov
New Orleans – LA Clippers
2.05
2
110:102
26.93
24
48
50.0
89.8
17-Nov
New Jersey – Indiana
2.65
4.5
83:91
26.02
23
47
48.9
86.7
15-Nov
Detroit – Dallas
2.7
5
90:95
27.02
23
46
50.0
90.1
14-Nov
Charlotte – Portland
2.3
3
74:80
27.02
22
45
48.9
90.1
14-Nov
Indiana – Boston
3.5
7
113:109
28.02
22
44
50.0
93.4
13-Nov
LA Clippers – toronto
2.45
3.5
89:104
27.11
21
43
48.8
90.4
13-Nov
Sacramento – Houston
2.7
4.5
109:100
28.11
21
42
50.0
93.7
13-Nov
New Orleans – portland
2.3
3
78:86
27.2
20
41
48.8
90.7
13-Nov
minnesota – Dallas
6.5
11
77:89
28.2
20
40
50.0
94.0
11-Nov
San Antonio – Dallas
2.05
1.5
92:83
29.2
20
39
51.3
97.3
11-Nov
Milwaukee – Denver
2.5
3.5
108:102
28.29
19
38
50.0
94.3
11-Nov
Minnesota – Portland
4
8
84:107
27.38
18
37
48.6
91.3
11-Nov
New York – Atlanta
2.95
5.5
101:114
28.38
18
36
50.0
94.6
10-Nov
Sacramento – Oklahoma
2.15
2
101:98
29.38
18
35
51.4
97.9
10-Nov
Memphis – Portland
3.15
6.5
79:93
28.47
17
34
50.0
94.9
10-Nov
Chicago – Denver
2.3
3
89:90
29.47
17
33
51.5
98.2
10-Nov
Charlotte – Orlando
2.45
3.5
81:93
28.56
16
32
50.0
95.2
9-Nov
LA Clippers – New Orleans
2.15
2
84:112
29.56
16
31
51.6
98.5
9-Nov
New York – Utah
3
6
93:95
30.56
16
30
53.3
101.9
9-Nov
Philadelphia – Phoenix
2.15
2
115:119
29.65
15
29
51.7
98.8
8-Nov
Sacramento – Golden State
2.4
3.5
120:107
30.65
15
28
53.6
102.2
8-Nov
Oklahoma – Orlando
3.15
6
102:74
29.74
14
27
51.9
99.1
8-Nov
Washington – Phoenix
2.15
2
90:102
28.83
13
26
50.0
96.1
7-Nov
New Jersey – Boston
12
14
76:86
29.83
13
25
52.0
99.4
6-Nov
New York – Cleveland
4.25
8
91:100
28.92
12
24
50.0
96.4
6-Nov
Charlotte – Atlanta
2.2
2.5
103:83
29.92
12
23
52.2
99.7
4-Nov
Sacramento – Atlanta
2.9
5.5
105:113
29.01
11
22
50.0
96.7
4-Nov
Houston – LA Lakers
2.1
2
102:103
30.01
11
21
52.4
100.0
4-Nov
Minnesota – Boston
7.5
12
90:92
29.1
10
20
50.0
97.0
4-Nov
New Jersey – Denver
4.75
9
94:122
28.19
9
19
47.4
94.0
3-Nov
Oklahoma – LA Lakers
3.65
7.5
98:101
29.19
9
18
50.0
97.3
3-Nov
Detroit – Orlando
3.35
6.5
85:80
28.28
8
17
47.1
94.3
3-Nov
Philadelphia – Boston
3.6
7
74:105
27.37
7
16
43.8
91.2
3-Nov
Indiana – Denver
2.9
5.5
93:111
28.37
7
15
46.7
94.6
2-Nov
New York – New Orleans
2.25
2.5
117:111
29.37
7
14
50.0
97.9
1-Nov
Oklahoma – Portland
2.2
2.5
74:83
28.46
6
13
46.2
94.9
1-Nov
Toronto –

Villarreal – Manchester United X

It is always good to place some money for a draw which will satisfied both teams. This is the case tonight between Villarreal and Manchester United. A draw will assure both teams of progressing to the knock out stage.

I prefer to ignore what Manuel Pellegrini have said about an eventual draw: “The worst possible way to qualify for the next round would be to go out and try to play for a draw,” he said for uefa.com and i think both teams will secure a draw with minimum pressure thinking about weekends matches.

I remember a similar match between Leverkusen and Monaco 10 years ago. The match ended 2:2 and there was no football at all. Bartez was sitting for the last 20 minutes holding the bar.

I bet for a draw for 2.6 coefficient.

200% ROI from Betsurf football hotmaches

The new football database is really good I think. The first sequence gave 200% ROI just for 20 days. Of course, here I must say I used a small bank and 10% of it for every single bet. However, those 54% successful bets with average odds of about 2,2 is cool enough to make me feel good.

Now, I’ll start with bigger bank and 5% of it on every bet. Let’s see what will happen. The first matches is tonight.

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Is it difficult to keep betting at the same level?

I know that from my experience. A punter finds a way to bet and finally a system that works looks perfect and the future seems bright. The punter starts making tips and fortunately the profit is rising, but there is a moment when all of this is not enough anymore. After a period of money increasing everything goes back and even below the bank the punter started with.

Why does it happen? Many people would say that the system is simply not good enough or the punter