Kimi gave profit too!

I am really pleased with that. I started betting on him in the middle of May and now I’ve won. Even better almost no one believed he could win this week and the odds were higher than I expected.

So I get that money and no more bets on F1 for this season.

May be I will start next year or WRC for Kimi again, who knows?

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Back to the past

After a few successful trials, the soccer hotmatches had two really bad months. In order to get back on track, I decided to return to an older soccer database, with strong hope that this will give me again those 130-180% ROI which I’ve got in the beginning of the year.

Crossing fingers.

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CSKA – Dinamo Moskow 2

It is hard for me to bet against a Bulgarian team, but today it will happen. 2.5 coefficient for away team is a gift. A team for 39 000 000 euro against a team with players for may be 2 000 000 and for that we have 2.5 coefficient. This is enough for me to bet on it.

Another thing – the Russian championship is about to finish, but Bulgarian has only two games played.

CSKA has a coach with no experience at all and Penev proved it on the first two matches in Europe League where they beat difficulty Derry from Ireland with 2:0 at home with goals after 70th minute and 1:1 away.

2.5 coefficient is not something to be missed.

Norway vs Scotland Under 2.5

The Scottish come to this match without four key players, most valuable from them is goalkeeper Creig Gordon. He will be replaced by Neil Alexander.

Norway star John Carew made huge problems for Scottish defense last time when those teams met and tonight he will be again ahead on Norway’s attack. Carew said already that this match will be crucial for them and their last chance to go through this group, a chance that they do not attend to miss.

Matches like this one are being played often with very hard defense and lack of opportunities for goal. Even more the stats are telling us that those teams haven’t many matches with more than two goals scored.

One more thing about that under. Norway will play only with Carew in attack, which means lot of long balls in the center of Scottish defense, which will be comfortable for them and I am sure this is not the way to see three goals here.

Scottish already said they are coming for win here, but I am sure a draw tonight is something that won’t make them unhappy at all.

1.66 is the coefficient for under 2.5 goals here and I am not going to miss it.

Under-over researching results after 66 games

What is going on with my research about betting on under or over in Basketball? Nothing so special, I would say, and the reason for that is the fact that the ROI has dropped from 17% to just four percents. However, there is good news and this is Gauss method for least square approximation. This is the most profitable method. Yes, with just four percents ROI, but it is a start. May be the way that the data is being collected is wrong, or maybe 4% is not so small profit. We will see.

Here are the results:

Under-over percentages from previous matches give 95.5 ROI
Under-over percentages from previous special matches give 101.3 ROI
Gauss method with data collected from last 10 matches for every team give 104 ROI
Gauss method with data collected from last 10 mutual games give 98.39 ROI
Average score made by teams in last 10 games for every team give 101.29 ROI
Average score made by teams in last 10 mutual games give 89.71 ROI

The last row is really a surprise for me. How is it possible the average for mutual games to be the worst result? Really strange, but a fact.

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Should we start betting under on WNBA matches?

I am asking myself this question right now and the reason is simple. If you take a look at the table below you will see that the gap between matches finished over and under has never been so huge like right now. As far as I remember some previous seasons in NBA and WNBA the bookies are trying to hold the percentages 50-50 between unders and overs.

Would it be the same way this year? I do not know, but I will try it.

Here is the table:

Teams
U
O
Atlanta
35
65
Chicago
30
70
Connecticut
58
42
Detroit
47
53
Indiana
37
63
Los Angeles
69
31
Minnesota
40
60
New York
44
56
Phoenix
32
68
Sacramento
45
55
San Antonio
37
63
Seattle
59
41
Washington
44
56

If we speak in general all under finished games are 43.6% and over finished games are, well here the math is easy ?

So, if those numbers above must go to 50-50 percent there is clear profit. I will try it. Crossing fingers.

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Football matches with coefficient more than 2.2. The results for July from 246 matches

I am getting a bit lazy these days with just following WNBA Under

Hamilton gave profit in F1

As I wrote in the beginning of May this season in F1 is really good for punting. It was impossible some of the best drivers last year to finish without a single win and Hamilton did it. He gave good profit too. 15 was the coefficient for him. I was a bit surprised to see him winning in Hungary, because on this track Brawn was excepted to be better than everybody else.

Unfortunately, I picked the wrong driver. I preferred Kimi, but there is hope for him to win a race. It would be better for me if something happened with Lewis

Honka FC – Garabag-Azersun Agdam Under 2.5

Azerbaijan’s FC Garabag is going to be my favorite club for betting in Europe League. There is no other team to play so successfully in defense as Garabag. Yes, they have proved it only in two games so far, but at least they are 100% predictable.

Honka also are team which matches mainly finish under 2.5 goals. They qualified for the second round with two wins against Bangor. The first match ended 1:0 and the second 2:0. In Finland they are a bit more sharp, with almost 2 goals made average per game.

I think Garabag will not change their successful tactic – to play with 9 man on defense. A tactic which have proved to be right against RBK, where the Norwegians had no more than 5 goal opportunities for two matches.

The odds for under here are 1.8.

FC Copenhagen – Stabaek 1

A tip here for really small odds, but with lot of arguments behind it. The first one is of course the players. There is no doubt that FC Copenhagen is better on that side. Stabaek has lot of financial troubles led to some of their best players out of the club recently. On the other side FC Copenhagen is the best Scandinavian club, something that is admit even by Stabaek’s players.

Something other that must be considered before betting on that match is the name of Copenhagen head coach. The Norwegian St?le Solbakken knows exactly what to do to win against a Norwegian club as Stabaek.

Stabaek is a bit better in their championship is already started, but I’m sure Copenhagen’s players are in their best form exactly for Champions League matches.

So, a home win here for 1.5 coefficient