Derby – Nottingham 2

I have always believe that the manager is almost everything in a football club. So, in this match we have the name of Billy Davies, who did his best at Derby and now he is doing his best for Forest. For the first 23 days of his career in Nottingham he has two wins in a row.

Which is most important Billy Davies is a man who knows everything about Derby. He knows their weaknesses and he know how to use them.

Derby is with 3 loses on row and with only one win in the last 10 Championship matches. Those facts makes the coefficient of 3 for Nottingham win very attractive to me. At least, I see that Forest has more than 40% chance to win today.

Newcastle – Central Coast 1:2

The tradition rules. Those words could be yours when you look at this game. In the last four seasons this two teams has played 16 matches. 13 of them finished under 2.5 goals or with other words 81.25%. This percent is good enough with odds of 1.9.

However, we have to take a look at the stats of this year.

Newcastle scores 1.375 goals per home match and concedes 1.25 goals per home match. Central Coast scores and concedes 1.75 goals per away match. This is a bit disturbing, but “The tradition rules”, so I bet here under for 1.9 coefficient.

Stoke – Derby

Is it possible the third best team at home in Premier League to take something different from a win against the 15th in Championship? I do not think so.

I have to add the fact that the 15th in Championship will be without five players: Dean Leacock (groin), Claude Davis (hamstring) and Martin Albrechtsen (calf) and cup-tied Luke Varney and Nacer Barazite. I will also add that the manager of the Championship team said for BBC: “It’s a game we’re looking forward to but it’s going to be a tough test for us.”.

So, the match is between Stoke and Derby and it is ? final for Carling Cup and the stake for Stoke 1.7 is quite good.

Detroit – Portland

When I watch Detroit for the last time, they played so badly that I simply turned my TV to a music channel. It was the match against Boston and I have played it over than 183 points. It was so painful to watch how they missed a shot, then another one, then another one and finally lost with 5 points under my pick.

Now, I will bet over again, but this time against Portland and this time, the thin red line is 186 points. Will they make it? I think, yes.

Iverson played a bit better against Milwaukee scoring 17, even though he came from the bench. Another 5 players made more than 9 points for Detroit in the last match and they scored more than 185 in the last 3 matches.

A few things about Portland. When Brandon Roy is on the pitch, it means many points. In the first 14 games for Portland 9 of them were over. Now, they are coming to Detroit with 4 games under in a row and I think today the line will be crossed.

Last 3 Portland’s away matches are over 186 points, so this is enough for me to put my money for an over here.

Houston – Denver

I think Denver and Houston will make more than 193 points and there are four reasons for that.

The first is Houston’s firepower. When Tracy McGrady went off the pitch few days ago, no one expected Houston would keep the firepower, but it happened. Luther Head who replaced him scored his season best 21 points against San Antonio yesterday. Ron Artest added 16 and another 5 players made over ten points against Tim Duncan and co for 103:84 win at home.

Now, against them is standing Denver that held an opponent under 100 points just one time in the last four games.

The second reason is the firepower of Denver’s players. Chauncey Billups is on fire and he made season’s best 27 points for 3 quarters against Minnesota yesterday. Carmelo added 25 and Denver won 106:97.

The third reason is the statistic. Denver made over 193 in 3 of last four home games, Houston made over 193 in their last three games away. Even more, all the 4 games last season between those two ended with more than 190 points, but here I have to remind that Iverson played for Denver in last season.

The fourth and the last reason to play this match an over 193 is that I cannot see who will stop Yao tonight.

Lokomotiv Mezdra – CSKA Sofia

It is difficult to bet for everything else than the top teams in Bulgarian championship. Even more when the value is 1.95 for away win. CSKA is coming to Mezdra without any problems with high spirit after the win against Litex in the last round.

In the beginning of the championship everyone in Bulgaria expected Lokomotiv to be one of the strongest teams after the top three, but the reality is different. Lokomotiv holds the 7th place in the table and there are rumors that the players have not received their salaries for few weeks.

The other rumor in Bulgaria is that CSKA is coming with the referee too, which is a thing to think about it.

So an away win here for 1.95

Coventry – Swansea 1

It is a bit difficult to predict how this match will end, but I prefer Coventry here.

Swansea will be without two of the biggest stars in the team against Coventry tonight. Top-scorer Ferrie Bodde will be out for around six months, after his left leg was put in a splint. Scans have revealed the 26-year-old Dutch midfielder has suffered anterior cruciate knee ligament damage and torn cartilage in his left knee. The striker has made seven goals by now.

Midfielder Leon Britton was also injured in Friday’s 3-2 loss to Birmingham City and he is uncertain for the battle tonight. If those two are not available it will be extremely difficult for Roberto Martinez’ boys to get something.

Coventry’s players are hoping to end the non winning strike of 4 matches at home. “It may not be a pretty game on Tuesday but I don’t care about that,” said Chris Coleman for BBC. “I just care about getting another result”.

Something interesting here is that Coleman is former Swan and Swansea is his top favorite team. This is simply another reason to play a home win here for 2.3 coefficient.

Minyor – Levski

“There will be blood in Pernik” – this must have been your words if you were in that town, situated in about 20 kilometers from Bulgarian capital Sofia. If you have read Bulgarian newspapers you would be able to feel those bloody emotions coming before that derby. It is a bit strange to bet against the top favorites in a championship like Bulgarian A group, but in this match I believe that the hate, the emotions and the history will decide the result of the game, not the team which has better players.

This match has a huge history, many blooded derbies, a lot of injured players, red cards and fights on and off the pitch. The last game of those teams was eight years ago and finished 4:0 for Levski (which was absolutely normal to happen) and with penalty for Minyor for about 50 stones thrown at the pitch, during the game.

On the other hand, if you saw the line ups for Levski you would find out there were lot of young, not so good and inexperienced players, who would not be able to stand against a whole town.

If we have to talk about facts Levski has 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 loses away, Minyor has absolutely the same at home. In history, for last ten years they have met 4 times – 3 wins for Levski and one for the team from Pernik.

However, I think today the fact that will decide the score will be the emotions and that is why I will bet +0.5 Minyor for 1.83.

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