Computer made Under Over soccer predictions

One of the most interesting betting options on football matches is whether both teams will score more or less than 2.5 goals in the game. Of course, this bet has many variations and can be played on 0.5, 1.5, 3.5 and more goals, the goal only for one the two teams or only these scored in one of the halves. There are many variations, but the hard task is to make profit from all of these kind of bets.

Is it possible to create a computer program that provides fairly true betting predictions for the number of the goals scored in a match? The answer to this question hasn’t been answered so far or rather it goes to one big No, but recently I came across a curious trial in this area. I found the site 1f6.info and since the latest predictions is from the European Championship in 2016 we can conclude that the experiment was unsuccessful.

However, the approach of the developers is interesting and deserves attention. Here is briefly what they most probably were trying to do and how far they reached.

The idea of ​​this computer program is to estimate the number of goals scored in a football match by calculating the number of created chances to score by both teams and the number of actually scored goals. For base are taken the last few games of each of the teams and then the program calculates the percentage probability of each one of the teams to score. After having these number the program makes projections which simulate a number of matches between the two teams to get the percentage probability of how much would the total number of goals scored in the game be. This probability is assessed against the odds and where it found a value a bet must be made.

There is one additional condition and it is that only matches with probabilities above 80 percent and odds more than 1.4 are considered for real betting. Thus guarantee sufficient security of the made investments.

What are the results? In fact, it wasn’t very easy to take out the final results because such were not represented on the site, but after some calculations, it appears that this approach returns very little profit after 100 bets. Presumably, that is why there are no recent publications on the site.

Anyway, the idea is interesting and definitely worth consideration. At least, this approach to sports betting is something that very few use but it has to be the opposite.

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Betting on draws or on Ties for the half with the most goals in the match

There are not so many interesting matches today and this is why I decided to take some time for checking our a very interesting theory about betting. According to this theory, if you think a game will end in a draw, you can bet not for a draw, but for a tie on the Half with the most goals in the match.

This bet should secure you even if the match ended with a win to some of the opponents, but with the same amount of scored goals in both halves. The idea is simple. The most common draw result is 1:1, then immediately comes 0:0. Much rarer are draws with more goals like 2:2, 3:3 and so on.

When the draw is 0:0 it is clear that we have a tie of the number of goals scored in both halves. Where the draw is 1:1, it is clear that there are three possible combinations, however, it seems that the most common would be to have a goal in each half.

Apart from this, the odds for a tie in the number of goals scored in both halves is relatively higher than the odds for a draw. Usually Bet365’s proposal for this type of bet is 3.6 and more, with maximum around 5.

I did a quick check on the betting coupon for Tuesday, November 27. For that day we had twenty draws, of which 11 were with tie and 9 were with more goals in one or the other half. Of course, the question remains open, how many of our betting predictions for draws would have really come and how much would be covered by betting on tie for the Half with the most goals in the match.

I made another check, where I used betting my predictions for draws in this season of Barclays Premier League. Since the beginning of season 2012/2013 I’ve bet on draws 19 times. Of these 19 only 5 times the match ended in a tie in the number of goals scored in both halves, which is not the greatest result. With odds of 3.6, which is the most common for this bet in the Premier League, I would have bet 19 units and I would get back 18 or I would be back with one.

However, my success rate for direct betting of draws is much better. From 19 bets I have 8 wins which bring me a profit of 26.95 units or in other words a pure profit of nearly 8 units, which is much better result.

So, this option for securing when betting on draws perhaps deserves more attention, but at least I will stay with betting on simple draws.

Two and a half years later

Hi to all who read this blog. It seems I haven’t posted anything for more than two years which is a really long, long time. I simply haven’t found the time to do it.

However, I haven’t stopped betting or trying to find some betting system which works. Unfortunately, with no great success. Today I checked my account on Bet365 and for the last six months I have won almost nothing, but I haven’t lost anything either, so my balance is great πŸ™‚

For the last two years I have abandoned my main idea for getting the prediction from the betting odds given by the bookies. The simple reason for that is the fact I need to learn more about excel and VBA and I haven’t found the time to do it. When I am ready with it I will post here again.

For this period I have tried some betting systems about draws on soccer matches, under and over betting on NBA matches and some other options, but as I said with no great success.

I mostly do betting prediction for soccer matches from the biggest European championships which you can see at my other site – eurobetinfo.com. I try to make predictions every day and so far my success rate is good. I will be glad if you come and visit the site.

PS. If someone wants to help me and has the needed knowledge on excel and VBA, I will be glad if you contact me at my mail πŸ™‚ Wish you all the best in your betting and many successful days.

For all spammers!!!

This post is for something really different than betting, but it is something that really makes me angry. It is about spamming in my blog. Every day I delete some spam comments and I will do it until I have this blog.

So, here is a polite message to the spammers. Please do not spam my blog. None of your comments will appear. You can be 100% sure.

If your link is about betting, than send me an e-mail and I will add you in my links page.

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