A perfect example why we should avoid Martingale

I made a research inspired by a betting forum article for using martingale with big favorites. The idea is simple you take 5 big guns and bet for them using martingale. I switch the research using another method, but with the same idea.
I bet on every favorite below 1.5 coefficient and using my soccer database to make selection. Where the odds shown by my database are higher than those given by the bookies I bet on this match.
The only condition is in the section of the database which I will use to have at least 20 games.
When two or more matches are being played at the same time I will bet on the first on the table in today

Results from my basketball betting research

It is a bit strange for me but my basketball under over research shows similar results. I use 6 methods for picking matches and all of them give results around 50%. This of course is 100% unsatisfying, but my research will continue.

Here are the results after 9 matches on WNBA:

When I use my old method with all previous matches

Bet under on Phoenix matches in WNBA

I am going to bet under on next five Phoenix games with martingale. I know it is a bit dangerous and I can lose all my bank, but I’ve got some reasons. From the beginning of WNBA Phoenix played 8 matches and all of them are over.

The longest strike of over I know about was New York’s last season with 12 overs in a row.

I think Phoenix will make at least one under in the next few games. So, crossing fingers.

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Would we bet on French League 1?

As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.

I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right

To bet on French League 1

Today I read an interesting post in Ed

Isn’t it the best moment to bet in Formula One?

Recently, I think lot of betting in Formula 1. You all know that right now the situation there is very complicated. The big guns like Mclaren and Ferrari are struggling and the newest team in F1 Brawn GP has the best car. Jason Button is leading with 31 points, 12 ahead from his partner Rubens Barrichello. On opposite drivers like Raikkonen are with 3 points, Hamilton with 9, Massa with 0 and all of them are far back in the standings. I am asking myself isn’t it the best moment to bet for them, right now?

I can not imagine a year with zero wins for Raikkonen or Massa. Hamilton too. Is it possible the world champion to finish without a single victory in the next season? I do not think so!

There is something more. Brawn GP surprised everybody with the new technology which has been showed in the first few races. But now the money problem for Brawn is getting bigger and bigger. Something more, bigger teams have already stolen what is best from Brawn’s technology and they will use it in next few races.

What about the odds. 15 is the coefficient for Raikkonen to win the next race. 17 is the coefficient for Massa and 9 for Hamilton. What I think to do? I will pick Raikkonen as my favorite driver, I will put some money and I will start to bet for him to win a race. 10% of the bank for every race and then I will sit a front of my TV and I will start to pray for Ferrari and Kimi. We will see what will happen.

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To bet on 4:4 draw for 401 coefficient

Andrey Arshavin, taken from guardian.co.uk

Andrey Arshavin, taken from guardian.co.uk

A friend of mine uses really strange system of betting, which has been extremely profitable this days. What is he doing? He picks a match almost every day and simply bet on exact score 4:4 with 401 coefficient.

Yesterday he won with Liverpool and Arsenal and a week ago he made the same thing with the match between Chelsea and Liverpool.

He has won one more time since the start of using this system and again the match was in England. The match was Arsenal versus Tottenham if my memories are correct.

However, this system is not so profitable, even those 800 units he collected this week. I checked with Soccerstats tracker the results from more than 30 championships to find out the following: In season 2007/2008 there were only 14 games finished 4:4 draw and Aston Villa Chelsea and Tottenham made it twice.

The season before that one

Betting on rock bottom team

This post is not mine I just read it recently, I like it and I want to share it with you. The post is from Ed’s betting blog. Here is the story:

One of the first rules in online betting is not to bet against a rock bottom team. This is usually taken for granted but too many times have the punters lost their money disregarding this rule. We will try to give you some insight into this matter and help you take this more seriously.

Even though many punters believe that the teams destined for relegation have nothing to play for, this is not entirely true. The players know that the only chance to stay in the league is to impress the visiting scouts and possible future employers and that is one of the reasons why they excel in the closing stages of the league campaign. This is something you should look for as the aforementioned players could be even more motivated than their opponents.

The teams that have lost all the chances to stay in the league are no longer under any pressure as their destiny is already determined, and we all know how much better a team play when the players are under no pressure. Teams in this situation are likely to risk more as they have nothing to lose and that can produce very good results.

The stronger teams also tend to underestimate these rock bottom teams and they usually do not take the game seriously, which later comes back to haunt them. Underestimating your opponent is probably the worst thing you can do in football, as it is enough for the weaker team to score an early goal and then they are very hard to break due to the very defensive approach they are likely to adopt after scoring the goal.

These are just some guidelines you should have in mind when placing your bets but ultimately, it is up to you to assess all the facts and see if it is worth betting against a rock bottom team.

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United always wins!!!

Manchester United scored late goal to win against Aston Villa just few minutes ago. They probably will be on the first place in the Premier League after the last round, but this is not so important to me. Actually, as a fan of Arsenal this is awful situation, but this is the life. What is more important for me than this to see United again on the top is the next question.

Do you know the fact that United is a team which has not have sequence of five games without a win in the last 10 years?

I checked only the last ten, but there are may be more years without five games in a row without win for the red devils, which is great for martingale if you have enough money and balls to try it.
So, I checked what would be happened if I was played for United with martingale this year. Until today I would have ROI

More about my simple betting system

Yesterday when I read the comment by Robert (thank you for your interest:)) about my simple NBA betting system I started to think about other sports and leagues where this system can be used. Few words about this system. It is really easy. When I am going to bet I check the percent of under and over endings for both teams in the match. If the sum for over percent is higher I bet over, if it is under I bet under.

The system is profitable. It gives around 50-50 which I use in modified for safety reasons martingale system. For example, yesterday I had 9 winners and only 1 lose. It was really pleasure to watch the games 🙂

OK about the system in other sports and leagues.

First of all the news are not good. I can see this system working only in NBA and WNBA. Probably it can be used in NCAAB, but the odds there are lower than in NBA. At the other hand this is not a problem for martingale.

In Europe we also have basketball leagues where I can try with this system, but here the problem is very few matches in those leagues. For example every team in NBA play more than 90 matches per year (including play-offs), in Germany the regular season is 34 games for every team. 34 games is the season in Israel too, but I am not 100% sure about it.

Where is the problem when you have only 34 matches. It is simply uncomfortable. The punter must wait for minimum 10 games for safety reasons and to be clearer which team in which direction, under or over is going and after this the punter will have only 24 games left to bet.

May be Korea is a variant with 54 games for every team, but the season there starts in August. I found those leagues in bet365, may be somewhere a bookie offers more leagues.

I will post more about other sports tomorrow, but by now I saw opportunity only in handball. Tennis, soccer and Ice Hockey does not work at all and the reason is the fixed score (2,5 for soccer, 5,5 for hockey) and odds between 1,4 to 2,2.

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