Under-over researching results after 66 games

What is going on with my research about betting on under or over in Basketball? Nothing so special, I would say, and the reason for that is the fact that the ROI has dropped from 17% to just four percents. However, there is good news and this is Gauss method for least square approximation. This is the most profitable method. Yes, with just four percents ROI, but it is a start. May be the way that the data is being collected is wrong, or maybe 4% is not so small profit. We will see.

Here are the results:

Under-over percentages from previous matches give 95.5 ROI
Under-over percentages from previous special matches give 101.3 ROI
Gauss method with data collected from last 10 matches for every team give 104 ROI
Gauss method with data collected from last 10 mutual games give 98.39 ROI
Average score made by teams in last 10 games for every team give 101.29 ROI
Average score made by teams in last 10 mutual games give 89.71 ROI

The last row is really a surprise for me. How is it possible the average for mutual games to be the worst result? Really strange, but a fact.

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Should we start betting under on WNBA matches?

I am asking myself this question right now and the reason is simple. If you take a look at the table below you will see that the gap between matches finished over and under has never been so huge like right now. As far as I remember some previous seasons in NBA and WNBA the bookies are trying to hold the percentages 50-50 between unders and overs.

Would it be the same way this year? I do not know, but I will try it.

Here is the table:

Teams
U
O
Atlanta
35
65
Chicago
30
70
Connecticut
58
42
Detroit
47
53
Indiana
37
63
Los Angeles
69
31
Minnesota
40
60
New York
44
56
Phoenix
32
68
Sacramento
45
55
San Antonio
37
63
Seattle
59
41
Washington
44
56

If we speak in general all under finished games are 43.6% and over finished games are, well here the math is easy ?

So, if those numbers above must go to 50-50 percent there is clear profit. I will try it. Crossing fingers.

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Football matches with coefficient more than 2.2. The results for July from 246 matches

I am getting a bit lazy these days with just following WNBA Under

Hamilton gave profit in F1

As I wrote in the beginning of May this season in F1 is really good for punting. It was impossible some of the best drivers last year to finish without a single win and Hamilton did it. He gave good profit too. 15 was the coefficient for him. I was a bit surprised to see him winning in Hungary, because on this track Brawn was excepted to be better than everybody else.

Unfortunately, I picked the wrong driver. I preferred Kimi, but there is hope for him to win a race. It would be better for me if something happened with Lewis

Result on my research after 18 games in WNBA

Last week my betting study was occupied only with the research in basketball under or over ending. I wrote a few times about it and I will do it now, again. It is time for evaluation after the first 18 matches already played.

I won’t be explaing again which methods I use. You can read more about them here.

There is 16.1% profit in two of the profits. The other four are below the line after those 18 games. However, as we all know we have to wait for the final matches for making analysis.

Here is the table with the result after 18 games in percentages:

% L +
%i L +
G L +
Gm L +
Avg. L +
Avg.m L +
61.1
50
33.3
61.1
38.8
44.4

One mark here. All odds here are 1.91

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Phoenix made profit. Finally!

As I posted earlier I was going to bet on Under for Phoenix with Martinagale. Finally it gave profit and I am satisfied with full pockets. 🙂

Crossing fingers this to continue.

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To bet on French League 1

Today I read an interesting post in Ed

Back the favorites!

I found something that really hit me in the head. I started a paper sheet project a few weeks ago. Short explanation: the project is something about soccer betting on all favorites where the odds for them are over 2.2. What a big surprise came when I saw the first 60 games with more than 50% wins for the favorites. Here are the games:

If this continues, it will be really strange, but really nice also 🙂

1
Jap. Cup
Niigata – Yokohama
1
0:3
0
0
2
Jap. Cup
Kashiva – Kobe
1
3:0
1
50
3
Jap. 2nd
Yokohama – Fukuoka
1
0:1
1
33.33
4
Jap. 2nd
Gifu – Mito
2
1:1
1
25
5
World Cup
Costa Rika – USA
1
3:1
2
40
6
Bra.
Santo Andres – Santos
2
3:3
2
33.33
7
Pol. 2nd
Jastrzebie – Katowice
1
0:1
2
28.57
8
Pol. 2nd
Swinoujscie – Zaglebie
1
2:3
2
25
9
World Cup
North Korea – Iran
2
0:0
2
22.22
10
World Cup
Malawi – Burkina Faso
1
0:1
2
20
11
Cze. 2nd
Sparta Prague B – Dukla
1
1:0
3
27.27
12
World Cup
Gabon – Togo
1
3:0
4
33.33
13
World Cup
Macedonia – Norway
2
0:0
4
30.77
14
Ita. 2nd
Ancona – Rimini
1
1:1
4
28.57
15
World Cup
Lithuania – Romania
2
0:1
5
33.33
16
World Cup
Cyprus – Montenegro
1
2:2
5
31.25
17
World Cup
Uruguay – Brazil
2
0:4
6
35.29
18
World Cup
Trinidad & Tobago – Costa Rica
2
2:3
7
38.89
19
MLS
Kansas City – Columbus
1
0:2
7
36.84
20
Jap. Cup
Yamagata – Kashiwa
1
1:1
7
35
21
Jap. Cup
Kobe – Shimizu
2
1:2
8
38.1
22
Jap. 2nd
Toyama Kataller – Verdy
2
0:3
9
40.91
23
Jap. 2nd
Fukuoka – Kusatsu
1
1:2
9
39.13
24
Euro U21
Kazakhstan 21 – Montenegro 21
1
0:2
9
37.5
25
Swe. 2nd
Ljungskile – Norrk?ping
1
2:2
9
36
26
Nor. 2nd
Tromsdalen – H?nefoss
2
0:1
10
38.46
27
Nor. 2nd
Alta – Sarpsborg
1
3:0
11
40.74
28
Nor. 2nd
Stavanger IF – Bryne
2
0:2
12
42.86
29
Spa. 2nd
Eibar – Girona
2
2:2
12
41.38
30
Bra.
Sport Recife – Flamengo
1
4:2
13
43.33
31
Ita. 2nd
Grosseto – Livorno
1
2:0
14
45.16
32
World Cup
Mali – Ghana
1
0:2
14
43.75
33
World Cup
Algeria – Egypt
2
3:1
14
42.42
34
World Cup
Peru – Ecuador
2
1:2
15
44.12
35
Bra.
Fluminense – Botafogo
1
1:0
16
45.71
36
Swe. 2nd
Trollh?ttan FC – Angelholms
2
1:2
17
47.22
37
Swe. 2nd
Syrianska FC – Sundsvall
1
1:2
17
45.95
38
Lit.
Kruoja Pakruojis – Siauliai
2
0:5
18
47.37
39
Dan. 2nd
AB Copenhagen – Herfolge
1
0:4
18
46.15
40
Rom.
FC Brasov – FC Timisoara
2
1:0
18
45
41
Rom.
CS Otopeni – Farul
1
6:0
19
46.34
42
Rom.
G. Buzau – G. Bistrita
2
2:1
19
45.24
43
Rom.
Unirea – Steaua Bucharest
2
1:1
19
44.19
44
World Cup
Ecuador – Argentina
2
2:0
19
43.18
45
World Cup
Venezuela – Uruguay
2
2:2
19
42.22
46
Lat.
Daugava Riga – Tranzits Ventspils
1
2:0
20
43.48
47
Swe. 2nd
J?nk?pings – Mj?llby
2
0:3
21
44.68
48
Ita. 2nd
Brescia – Empoli
1
3:0
22
45.83
49
Bul.
Slavia Sofia – Lok. Sofia
2
2:2
22
44.9
50
Bul.
Spartak Varna – Litex Lovech
2
0:4
23
46
51
Ice.
Fjolnir – Fylkir
2
1:3
24
47.06
52
Nor. 2nd
H?nefoss – Ham-Kam
1
1:1
24
46.15
53
Ire. Cup
Tralee Dynamos – Salthill Devon
1
2:1
25
47.17
54
Spa. 2nd
Murcia – Salamanca
1
2:1
26
48.15
55
Rom. Cup
CFR Cluj – FC Timisoara
1
3:0
27
49.09
56
Bra.
Botafogo – Santos
1
2:0
28
50
57
MLS
DC United – Chicago
1
2:1
29
50.88
58
MLS
Kansas City – New England
1
3:1
30
51.72
59
MLS
Dallas – Houston
2
1:3
31
52.54
60
Jap. 2nd
Tochigi SC – Tosu
2
0:5
32
53.33

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Betting on underdogs using betsuf database

A few weeks ago I started a research using my soccer database. Until now I’ve used it only to find profit on favorites and there was some success. Betting on underdogs could be profitable too, but the punter must use the correct betting system and money management.

For my research I bet on 100 matches using doubles (draw and back the underdog) and only draws, using 3% on the bank on every bet. As a conclusion I can say that the draw betting was a mistake, I lost everything on the half way. The double betting was a bit better, but again with bad result. The ROI is about 80%. In the beginning the results were great and there was near 30% profit, but then the results got worse.

However, there is profit because 30+ of those games, predicted by my database as profitable when betting on underdogs finished with win for the underdogs. Most of the odds are high above 3, which will give good profit. I will check this later and I will try again.

Here is the table with matches:

Date
Campionship
Match
0.5
X K.
0.5 K.
Res.
X Bank
0.5 Bank
X +
0.5 +
No
X + %
0.5 + %
X ROI
0.5 ROI
6.06
MLS
Salt Lake – Colorado
X2
1.7
1:1
23.45
56
100
0.00
56.00
0.00
78.17
6.06
Spa. 2nd
Albacete – Murcia
X2
1.58
0:0
22.75
55
99
0.00
55.56
0.00
75.83
6.06
World Cup
Macedonia – Norway
1X
1.55
0:0
22.17
54
98
0.00
55.10
0.00
73.90
5.06
MLS
Chicago – Houston
X2
1.6
0:1
21.62
53
97
0.00
54.64
0.00
72.07
5.06
Ire.
Galway – Drogheda
X2
1.6
1:1
20.62
52
96
0.00
54.17
0.00
68.73
5.06
Ire.
Sligo – Derry City
1

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Searching for patterns. Finnish 1st league

I am staring at the numbers in the last two days with hope to find something that will give a clue about profitable betting. You know I hope to find some pattern which will lead me to profit in Finnish 1st league. I use results from past years and compare them to this one. I got some good guess on betting for the favorite with coefficients between 2.01 and 2.2, but unfortunately the first bet was unsuccessful