Back to the past

After a few successful trials, the soccer hotmatches had two really bad months. In order to get back on track, I decided to return to an older soccer database, with strong hope that this will give me again those 130-180% ROI which I’ve got in the beginning of the year.

Crossing fingers.

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Backing the favourites with odds higher than 2.2. The stats for June!

As I posted earlier I followed the soccer matches where the favorite had coefficient more than 2.2. The first few days the results were amazing. 53% of the games finished with wins for the favorites. Here are the final stats for the month.

Favorite’s wins = 46%
Draws = 25%
Underdog’s wins = 29%

All this is from 124 matches played in June. I must say here that those 124 matches would be played just for a weekend in regular football months as September for example.

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Shouldn’t we bet on French League?

Is there something special in French League 1. I found an article in another blog that we shouldn

Would we bet on French League 1?

As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.

I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right

To bet on French League 1

Today I read an interesting post in Ed

Back the favorites!

I found something that really hit me in the head. I started a paper sheet project a few weeks ago. Short explanation: the project is something about soccer betting on all favorites where the odds for them are over 2.2. What a big surprise came when I saw the first 60 games with more than 50% wins for the favorites. Here are the games:

If this continues, it will be really strange, but really nice also 🙂

1
Jap. Cup
Niigata – Yokohama
1
0:3
0
0
2
Jap. Cup
Kashiva – Kobe
1
3:0
1
50
3
Jap. 2nd
Yokohama – Fukuoka
1
0:1
1
33.33
4
Jap. 2nd
Gifu – Mito
2
1:1
1
25
5
World Cup
Costa Rika – USA
1
3:1
2
40
6
Bra.
Santo Andres – Santos
2
3:3
2
33.33
7
Pol. 2nd
Jastrzebie – Katowice
1
0:1
2
28.57
8
Pol. 2nd
Swinoujscie – Zaglebie
1
2:3
2
25
9
World Cup
North Korea – Iran
2
0:0
2
22.22
10
World Cup
Malawi – Burkina Faso
1
0:1
2
20
11
Cze. 2nd
Sparta Prague B – Dukla
1
1:0
3
27.27
12
World Cup
Gabon – Togo
1
3:0
4
33.33
13
World Cup
Macedonia – Norway
2
0:0
4
30.77
14
Ita. 2nd
Ancona – Rimini
1
1:1
4
28.57
15
World Cup
Lithuania – Romania
2
0:1
5
33.33
16
World Cup
Cyprus – Montenegro
1
2:2
5
31.25
17
World Cup
Uruguay – Brazil
2
0:4
6
35.29
18
World Cup
Trinidad & Tobago – Costa Rica
2
2:3
7
38.89
19
MLS
Kansas City – Columbus
1
0:2
7
36.84
20
Jap. Cup
Yamagata – Kashiwa
1
1:1
7
35
21
Jap. Cup
Kobe – Shimizu
2
1:2
8
38.1
22
Jap. 2nd
Toyama Kataller – Verdy
2
0:3
9
40.91
23
Jap. 2nd
Fukuoka – Kusatsu
1
1:2
9
39.13
24
Euro U21
Kazakhstan 21 – Montenegro 21
1
0:2
9
37.5
25
Swe. 2nd
Ljungskile – Norrk?ping
1
2:2
9
36
26
Nor. 2nd
Tromsdalen – H?nefoss
2
0:1
10
38.46
27
Nor. 2nd
Alta – Sarpsborg
1
3:0
11
40.74
28
Nor. 2nd
Stavanger IF – Bryne
2
0:2
12
42.86
29
Spa. 2nd
Eibar – Girona
2
2:2
12
41.38
30
Bra.
Sport Recife – Flamengo
1
4:2
13
43.33
31
Ita. 2nd
Grosseto – Livorno
1
2:0
14
45.16
32
World Cup
Mali – Ghana
1
0:2
14
43.75
33
World Cup
Algeria – Egypt
2
3:1
14
42.42
34
World Cup
Peru – Ecuador
2
1:2
15
44.12
35
Bra.
Fluminense – Botafogo
1
1:0
16
45.71
36
Swe. 2nd
Trollh?ttan FC – Angelholms
2
1:2
17
47.22
37
Swe. 2nd
Syrianska FC – Sundsvall
1
1:2
17
45.95
38
Lit.
Kruoja Pakruojis – Siauliai
2
0:5
18
47.37
39
Dan. 2nd
AB Copenhagen – Herfolge
1
0:4
18
46.15
40
Rom.
FC Brasov – FC Timisoara
2
1:0
18
45
41
Rom.
CS Otopeni – Farul
1
6:0
19
46.34
42
Rom.
G. Buzau – G. Bistrita
2
2:1
19
45.24
43
Rom.
Unirea – Steaua Bucharest
2
1:1
19
44.19
44
World Cup
Ecuador – Argentina
2
2:0
19
43.18
45
World Cup
Venezuela – Uruguay
2
2:2
19
42.22
46
Lat.
Daugava Riga – Tranzits Ventspils
1
2:0
20
43.48
47
Swe. 2nd
J?nk?pings – Mj?llby
2
0:3
21
44.68
48
Ita. 2nd
Brescia – Empoli
1
3:0
22
45.83
49
Bul.
Slavia Sofia – Lok. Sofia
2
2:2
22
44.9
50
Bul.
Spartak Varna – Litex Lovech
2
0:4
23
46
51
Ice.
Fjolnir – Fylkir
2
1:3
24
47.06
52
Nor. 2nd
H?nefoss – Ham-Kam
1
1:1
24
46.15
53
Ire. Cup
Tralee Dynamos – Salthill Devon
1
2:1
25
47.17
54
Spa. 2nd
Murcia – Salamanca
1
2:1
26
48.15
55
Rom. Cup
CFR Cluj – FC Timisoara
1
3:0
27
49.09
56
Bra.
Botafogo – Santos
1
2:0
28
50
57
MLS
DC United – Chicago
1
2:1
29
50.88
58
MLS
Kansas City – New England
1
3:1
30
51.72
59
MLS
Dallas – Houston
2
1:3
31
52.54
60
Jap. 2nd
Tochigi SC – Tosu
2
0:5
32
53.33

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Creating odds from ratings

I read lot about power ratings etc. about the way of making good soccer betting system. Of course, those ratings can be used for any sports, but most of the punters use it for soccer. From all the pages I read, I assume that one of the biggest problems in those ratings is how to calculate true odds from your ratings, so the punter can search for value.

I must say, it is an unexplored field for me, but it seems easy to me how to calculate those odds and the way is to use Asian handycap +0.5. Isn’t it?

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18% pure profit when betting on soccer underdogs

In my last post I wrote about my research on soccer betting and my soccer database. It wasn’t good enough, but there is profit. I found out that I made a mistake with the way of betting and not with the games I picked.

So, if I’d bet on single for the underdogs, instead of doubles with draw, I would have 35 winners and ROI of 118.63% with 1% of the bank, used for every bet.

Of course this result is only from 100 matches. I will continue with searching.

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Betting on underdogs using betsuf database

A few weeks ago I started a research using my soccer database. Until now I’ve used it only to find profit on favorites and there was some success. Betting on underdogs could be profitable too, but the punter must use the correct betting system and money management.

For my research I bet on 100 matches using doubles (draw and back the underdog) and only draws, using 3% on the bank on every bet. As a conclusion I can say that the draw betting was a mistake, I lost everything on the half way. The double betting was a bit better, but again with bad result. The ROI is about 80%. In the beginning the results were great and there was near 30% profit, but then the results got worse.

However, there is profit because 30+ of those games, predicted by my database as profitable when betting on underdogs finished with win for the underdogs. Most of the odds are high above 3, which will give good profit. I will check this later and I will try again.

Here is the table with matches:

Date
Campionship
Match
0.5
X K.
0.5 K.
Res.
X Bank
0.5 Bank
X +
0.5 +
No
X + %
0.5 + %
X ROI
0.5 ROI
6.06
MLS
Salt Lake – Colorado
X2
1.7
1:1
23.45
56
100
0.00
56.00
0.00
78.17
6.06
Spa. 2nd
Albacete – Murcia
X2
1.58
0:0
22.75
55
99
0.00
55.56
0.00
75.83
6.06
World Cup
Macedonia – Norway
1X
1.55
0:0
22.17
54
98
0.00
55.10
0.00
73.90
5.06
MLS
Chicago – Houston
X2
1.6
0:1
21.62
53
97
0.00
54.64
0.00
72.07
5.06
Ire.
Galway – Drogheda
X2
1.6
1:1
20.62
52
96
0.00
54.17
0.00
68.73
5.06
Ire.
Sligo – Derry City
1

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Mathematics and betting

Recently I’ve been reading a post in punterslounge forum about a football rating system. The posts there are really fascinating and throw me in deep thinking about maths and how we use it.

However, I have read only 3 pages until now, because I have other stuff to do, but the post helped me with some fresh ideas, which I am going to give a try.

I was really impressed with how we can use the idea of Gauss about Least Squares Approximations . Right now I have put all other betting stuff aside and just read about this method.

I hope it will help me improve my results, which are quite bad these days.

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