A perfect example why we should avoid Martingale

I made a research inspired by a betting forum article for using martingale with big favorites. The idea is simple you take 5 big guns and bet for them using martingale. I switch the research using another method, but with the same idea.
I bet on every favorite below 1.5 coefficient and using my soccer database to make selection. Where the odds shown by my database are higher than those given by the bookies I bet on this match.
The only condition is in the section of the database which I will use to have at least 20 games.
When two or more matches are being played at the same time I will bet on the first on the table in today

To bet on French League 1

Today I read an interesting post in Ed

Creating odds from ratings

I read lot about power ratings etc. about the way of making good soccer betting system. Of course, those ratings can be used for any sports, but most of the punters use it for soccer. From all the pages I read, I assume that one of the biggest problems in those ratings is how to calculate true odds from your ratings, so the punter can search for value.

I must say, it is an unexplored field for me, but it seems easy to me how to calculate those odds and the way is to use Asian handycap +0.5. Isn’t it?

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Betting on underdogs using betsuf database

A few weeks ago I started a research using my soccer database. Until now I’ve used it only to find profit on favorites and there was some success. Betting on underdogs could be profitable too, but the punter must use the correct betting system and money management.

For my research I bet on 100 matches using doubles (draw and back the underdog) and only draws, using 3% on the bank on every bet. As a conclusion I can say that the draw betting was a mistake, I lost everything on the half way. The double betting was a bit better, but again with bad result. The ROI is about 80%. In the beginning the results were great and there was near 30% profit, but then the results got worse.

However, there is profit because 30+ of those games, predicted by my database as profitable when betting on underdogs finished with win for the underdogs. Most of the odds are high above 3, which will give good profit. I will check this later and I will try again.

Here is the table with matches:

Date
Campionship
Match
0.5
X K.
0.5 K.
Res.
X Bank
0.5 Bank
X +
0.5 +
No
X + %
0.5 + %
X ROI
0.5 ROI
6.06
MLS
Salt Lake – Colorado
X2
1.7
1:1
23.45
56
100
0.00
56.00
0.00
78.17
6.06
Spa. 2nd
Albacete – Murcia
X2
1.58
0:0
22.75
55
99
0.00
55.56
0.00
75.83
6.06
World Cup
Macedonia – Norway
1X
1.55
0:0
22.17
54
98
0.00
55.10
0.00
73.90
5.06
MLS
Chicago – Houston
X2
1.6
0:1
21.62
53
97
0.00
54.64
0.00
72.07
5.06
Ire.
Galway – Drogheda
X2
1.6
1:1
20.62
52
96
0.00
54.17
0.00
68.73
5.06
Ire.
Sligo – Derry City
1

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Mathematics and betting

Recently I’ve been reading a post in punterslounge forum about a football rating system. The posts there are really fascinating and throw me in deep thinking about maths and how we use it.

However, I have read only 3 pages until now, because I have other stuff to do, but the post helped me with some fresh ideas, which I am going to give a try.

I was really impressed with how we can use the idea of Gauss about Least Squares Approximations . Right now I have put all other betting stuff aside and just read about this method.

I hope it will help me improve my results, which are quite bad these days.

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A new look into the game

An interesting approach about betting occurred into my mind those days. I was away on travel, but I though a bit for betting. So, the point is for patterns in betting. I’m asking myself: “Is it possible bookies to have on their sheets we will make 23% underdog wins on 3.2 coefficient this year?”.

Sounds a it silly, but who knows.

However, I am checking now first 8 rounds in Finnish 1st Veiskkauliiga and there are some interesting patterns.

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To bet on underdog draws using Betsurf database

I was too excited yesterday, but unfortunately I had to cool my head and to see the reality. The first 11 days of April showed ROI better than 120%, when I checked the system I wrote about yesterday. The result for the whole month are not so good with ROI 98.9%.

However, the system is interesting and I will continue on a paper sheet to see what will happen.

I will follow those matches using pure draw system and Asian handicap for the underdog. 3% of the bank will be used for every bet. Crossing fingers.

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A simple NBA betting system

No football matches today, so it is perfect time for a NBA post. Now, it is about under-over betting and a system that I use and a system that gives me really good profit. It is really simple. First of all I follow all the matches in the league and write down on an excel table, for every team

Bet on underdog at home! True or false? The answer about NBA

I wrote few days ago that I’ve read something about this old betting rule –