Backing the favourites with odds higher than 2.2. The stats for June!

As I posted earlier I followed the soccer matches where the favorite had coefficient more than 2.2. The first few days the results were amazing. 53% of the games finished with wins for the favorites. Here are the final stats for the month.

Favorite’s wins = 46%
Draws = 25%
Underdog’s wins = 29%

All this is from 124 matches played in June. I must say here that those 124 matches would be played just for a weekend in regular football months as September for example.

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Would we bet on French League 1?

As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.

I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right

18% pure profit when betting on soccer underdogs

In my last post I wrote about my research on soccer betting and my soccer database. It wasn’t good enough, but there is profit. I found out that I made a mistake with the way of betting and not with the games I picked.

So, if I’d bet on single for the underdogs, instead of doubles with draw, I would have 35 winners and ROI of 118.63% with 1% of the bank, used for every bet.

Of course this result is only from 100 matches. I will continue with searching.

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Betting on underdogs using betsuf database

A few weeks ago I started a research using my soccer database. Until now I’ve used it only to find profit on favorites and there was some success. Betting on underdogs could be profitable too, but the punter must use the correct betting system and money management.

For my research I bet on 100 matches using doubles (draw and back the underdog) and only draws, using 3% on the bank on every bet. As a conclusion I can say that the draw betting was a mistake, I lost everything on the half way. The double betting was a bit better, but again with bad result. The ROI is about 80%. In the beginning the results were great and there was near 30% profit, but then the results got worse.

However, there is profit because 30+ of those games, predicted by my database as profitable when betting on underdogs finished with win for the underdogs. Most of the odds are high above 3, which will give good profit. I will check this later and I will try again.

Here is the table with matches:

Date
Campionship
Match
0.5
X K.
0.5 K.
Res.
X Bank
0.5 Bank
X +
0.5 +
No
X + %
0.5 + %
X ROI
0.5 ROI
6.06
MLS
Salt Lake – Colorado
X2
1.7
1:1
23.45
56
100
0.00
56.00
0.00
78.17
6.06
Spa. 2nd
Albacete – Murcia
X2
1.58
0:0
22.75
55
99
0.00
55.56
0.00
75.83
6.06
World Cup
Macedonia – Norway
1X
1.55
0:0
22.17
54
98
0.00
55.10
0.00
73.90
5.06
MLS
Chicago – Houston
X2
1.6
0:1
21.62
53
97
0.00
54.64
0.00
72.07
5.06
Ire.
Galway – Drogheda
X2
1.6
1:1
20.62
52
96
0.00
54.17
0.00
68.73
5.06
Ire.
Sligo – Derry City
1

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To bet on underdog draws using Betsurf database

I was too excited yesterday, but unfortunately I had to cool my head and to see the reality. The first 11 days of April showed ROI better than 120%, when I checked the system I wrote about yesterday. The result for the whole month are not so good with ROI 98.9%.

However, the system is interesting and I will continue on a paper sheet to see what will happen.

I will follow those matches using pure draw system and Asian handicap for the underdog. 3% of the bank will be used for every bet. Crossing fingers.

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Bet on underdog at home! True or false? The answer about NHL

The old rule in betting to bet for the underdog at home is going to be huge mistake. As I wrote few days ago if a punter did this in NBA he or she will lose 14% of the bank. Almost the same thing will happen in NHL. The ROI there if you bet for the underdog at home is 85.2%.

289 games where played by now and only 92 were winners and 197 were losers.

If we take a deeper look NY Islanders are the best underdog at home in NHL. 11 winners from 27 matches, but this team also gives poor profit. The ROI is only 92.8%.

Atlanta has 9 winners at home as underdog, Phoenix, St. Luis and Toronto have 8 winners, but the ROI is simply not good enough to bet.

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Betting on rock bottom team

This post is not mine I just read it recently, I like it and I want to share it with you. The post is from Ed’s betting blog. Here is the story:

One of the first rules in online betting is not to bet against a rock bottom team. This is usually taken for granted but too many times have the punters lost their money disregarding this rule. We will try to give you some insight into this matter and help you take this more seriously.

Even though many punters believe that the teams destined for relegation have nothing to play for, this is not entirely true. The players know that the only chance to stay in the league is to impress the visiting scouts and possible future employers and that is one of the reasons why they excel in the closing stages of the league campaign. This is something you should look for as the aforementioned players could be even more motivated than their opponents.

The teams that have lost all the chances to stay in the league are no longer under any pressure as their destiny is already determined, and we all know how much better a team play when the players are under no pressure. Teams in this situation are likely to risk more as they have nothing to lose and that can produce very good results.

The stronger teams also tend to underestimate these rock bottom teams and they usually do not take the game seriously, which later comes back to haunt them. Underestimating your opponent is probably the worst thing you can do in football, as it is enough for the weaker team to score an early goal and then they are very hard to break due to the very defensive approach they are likely to adopt after scoring the goal.

These are just some guidelines you should have in mind when placing your bets but ultimately, it is up to you to assess all the facts and see if it is worth betting against a rock bottom team.

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Bet on underdog at home! True or false? The answer about NBA

I wrote few days ago that I’ve read something about this old betting rule –