This must be read from all people who follow my picks at betsurf soccer hotmatches. It seems that the hotmatches has serious problem, which can lead to really strange and may be bad results.
As you can see the start this time wasn’t good at all and I started to investigate why. The reason is really simple.
For my soccer hotmatches I use my soccer database. In this database I have collected around 8000 matches and their results, grouped in sectors by the odds given from bookies for the favourite in the match.
For the odds I use average odds from different bookies given by betexplorer.com. They use to give average odds from a particular group of bookmakers, which group is being changed those days. Of course this means that I will get different results from this different group of bookies.
I will continue with my picks, but I will use small bank, just for experience. Right now I have started to fill another sheet of my database, where I use the odds only by one bookmaker, so this problem will not occur soon.
However, my new database will not be ready at least for two mounts.
I used more time and matches than I planned before, but I made it. I made 20% profit in football betting, 22% actually. Now it is time to cash and another sequence.
I needed 41 days and 71 matches for doing that.
Crossing fingers this time the period to be shortened.
You know there is margin given by the bookies in every match in NBA. The idea of this margin is to make chances for both teams for winning the game even. I think here is a possibility for making money, cos not the players of the pitch decide who will win, but the house.
Here is a table about this margin in NBA, where you can see that some teams, like Lakers are really overestimated, but some teams like Atlanta are on opposition of that.
Here is the table:
| Teams |
W |
L |
% |
% |
| Boston |
16 |
21 |
43 |
57 |
| New Jersey |
13 |
26 |
33 |
67 |
| New York |
19 |
20 |
49 |
51 |
| Philadelphia |
17 |
22 |
44 |
56 |
| Toronto |
20 |
20 |
50 |
50 |
| Dallas |
17 |
22 |
44 |
56 |
| Houston |
23 |
17 |
58 |
43 |
| Memphis |
21 |
18 |
54 |
46 |
| New Orleans |
19 |
20 |
49 |
51 |
| San Antonio |
19 |
18 |
51 |
49 |
| Chicago |
18 |
18 |
50 |
50 |
| Cleveland |
20 |
21 |
49 |
51 |
| Detroit |
19 |
18 |
51 |
49 |
| Indiana |
17 |
22 |
44 |
56 |
| Milwaukee |
19 |
19 |
50 |
50 |
| Denver |
17 |
21 |
45 |
55 |
| Minnesota |
19 |
21 |
48 |
53 |
| Portland |
20 |
20 |
50 |
50 |
| Oklahoma |
24 |
16 |
60 |
40 |
| Utah |
24 |
16 |
60 |
40 |
| Atlanta |
26 |
13 |
67 |
33 |
| Charlotte |
20 |
15 |
57 |
43 |
| Miami |
18 |
18 |
50 |
50 |
| Orlando |
20 |
19 |
51 |
49 |
| Washington |
15 |
23 |
39 |
61 |
| Golden State |
19 |
19 |
50 |
50 |
| LA Clippers |
18 |
21 |
46 |
54 |
| LA Lakers |
17 |
24 |
41 |
59 |
| Phoenix |
20 |
20 |
50 |
50 |
| Sacramento |
22 |
15 |
59 |
41 |
Yesterday I decided that my goal in betting must be 20% pure profit. That means I will have to start another series of hotmatches betting, because after 52 matches the profit was above 30%.
So, the new sequence of matches begins today. Crossing fingers for another profitable one.
I read something about that way of betting which would be really profitable. The idea is simple where the underdog play at home bet for it and the margin that the bookies give.
Like most of those betting strategies this one doesn’t work or at least it does not work with NBA betting.
Here is my paper sheet with the first 100 matches where the underdog played at home. The ROI is 69.1% so I would lose 1/3 of my bank if I have been betting on that idea.
I started with 30 units and 3% of the bank for every bet.
|
Date
|
Match
|
Odds
|
Margin
|
Res.
|
Bank
|
+
|
All
|
%
|
ROI
|
|
13-Dec
|
Oklahoma – Cleveland
|
2.45
|
3.5
|
89:102
|
20.74
|
48
|
100
|
48.0
|
69.1
|
|
13-Dec
|
LA Clippers – San Antonio
|
2.9
|
5.5
|
90:115
|
21.74
|
48
|
99
|
48.5
|
72.5
|
|
13-Dec
|
Toronto – Houston
|
2.1
|
2
|
101:88
|
22.74
|
48
|
98
|
49.0
|
75.8
|
|
11-Dec
|
Toronto – Atlanta
|
2.55
|
4
|
89:111
|
21.84
|
47
|
97
|
48.5
|
72.8
|
|
11-Dec
|
Philadelphia – Houston
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
91:96
|
22.84
|
47
|
96
|
49.0
|
76.1
|
|
10-Dec
|
Detroit – Denver
|
3.5
|
7
|
101:99
|
23.84
|
47
|
95
|
49.5
|
79.5
|
|
10-Dec
|
Washington – Boston
|
3.6
|
7.5
|
102:104
|
22.93
|
46
|
94
|
48.9
|
76.4
|
|
10-Dec
|
Utah – Orlando
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
120:111
|
22.02
|
45
|
93
|
48.4
|
73.4
|
|
9-Dec
|
Minnesota – New Orleans
|
2.4
|
3
|
96:97
|
21.11
|
44
|
92
|
47.8
|
70.4
|
|
9-Dec
|
Houston – Cleveland
|
2.25
|
2.5
|
95:85
|
20.2
|
43
|
91
|
47.3
|
67.3
|
|
9-Dec
|
Indiana – Portland
|
2.6
|
4
|
91:102
|
19.29
|
42
|
90
|
46.7
|
64.3
|
|
8-Dec
|
LA Clippers – Orlando
|
3.4
|
7
|
86:97
|
20.29
|
42
|
89
|
47.2
|
67.6
|
|
8-Dec
|
Memphis – Cleveland
|
3.65
|
7.5
|
111:109
|
21.29
|
42
|
88
|
47.7
|
71.0
|
|
8-Dec
|
Charlotte – Denver
|
2.35
|
3
|
107:95
|
20.38
|
41
|
87
|
47.1
|
67.9
|
|
7-Dec
|
Philadelphia – Denver
|
3.35
|
6.5
|
83:93
|
19.47
|
40
|
86
|
46.5
|
64.9
|
|
7-Dec
|
New York – Portland
|
2.45
|
3.5
|
93:84
|
20.47
|
40
|
85
|
47.1
|
68.2
|
|
6-Dec
|
Sacramento – Miami
|
2.05
|
1.5
|
102:115
|
19.56
|
39
|
84
|
46.4
|
65.2
|
|
6-Dec
|
Milwaukee – Cleveland
|
3.35
|
6.5
|
86:101
|
20.56
|
39
|
83
|
47.0
|
68.5
|
|
5-Dec
|
Golden State – Orlando
|
4.75
|
9
|
118:126
|
21.56
|
39
|
82
|
47.6
|
71.9
|
|
5-Dec
|
Minnesota – Utah
|
3.65
|
7.5
|
108:101
|
20.65
|
38
|
81
|
46.9
|
68.8
|
|
4-Dec
|
New Jersey – Charlotte
|
2.35
|
3.5
|
97:91
|
19.74
|
37
|
80
|
46.3
|
65.8
|
|
4-Dec
|
Memphis – Dallas
|
3.2
|
5.5
|
98:82
|
18.83
|
36
|
79
|
45.6
|
62.8
|
|
4-Dec
|
Oklahoma – Boston
|
2.65
|
4.5
|
87:105
|
17.92
|
35
|
78
|
44.9
|
59.7
|
|
3-Dec
|
Golden State – Houston
|
2.05
|
1.5
|
109:111
|
18.92
|
35
|
77
|
45.5
|
63.1
|
|
2-Dec
|
LA Clippers – Houston
|
2.1
|
2
|
85:102
|
19.92
|
35
|
76
|
46.1
|
66.4
|
|
2-Dec
|
Minnesota – Memphis
|
2.35
|
3
|
95:97
|
20.92
|
35
|
75
|
46.7
|
69.7
|
|
2-Dec
|
New Jersey – Dallas
|
3.5
|
7
|
101:117
|
20.01
|
34
|
74
|
45.9
|
66.7
|
|
1-Dec
|
New York – Phoenix
|
3.6
|
7
|
126:99
|
21.01
|
34
|
73
|
46.6
|
70.0
|
|
1-Dec
|
Charlotte – Boston
|
2.55
|
4
|
90:108
|
20.1
|
33
|
72
|
45.8
|
67.0
|
|
29-Nov
|
New York – Orlando
|
3.1
|
6
|
102:114
|
21.1
|
33
|
71
|
46.5
|
70.3
|
|
29-Nov
|
Miami – Boston
|
2.55
|
4
|
85:92
|
22.1
|
33
|
70
|
47.1
|
73.7
|
|
29-Nov
|
Toronto – Phoenix
|
2.25
|
3
|
94:113
|
23.1
|
33
|
69
|
47.8
|
77.0
|
|
29-Nov
|
Detroit – Atlanta
|
3.2
|
6
|
94:88
|
24.1
|
33
|
68
|
48.5
|
80.3
|
|
28-Nov
|
Milwaukee – Orlando
|
3.3
|
6.5
|
98:100
|
23.19
|
32
|
67
|
47.8
|
77.3
|
|
28-Nov
|
Golden State – LA Lakers
|
4.75
|
9
|
97:130
|
22.28
|
31
|
66
|
47.0
|
74.3
|
|
27-Nov
|
Minnesota – Phoenix
|
5.25
|
9.5
|
95:120
|
23.28
|
31
|
65
|
47.7
|
77.6
|
|
27-Nov
|
Indiana – Dallas
|
2.25
|
3
|
92:113
|
24.28
|
31
|
64
|
48.4
|
80.9
|
|
27-Nov
|
Houston – San Antonio
|
2
|
1
|
84:92
|
25.28
|
31
|
63
|
49.2
|
84.3
|
|
27-Nov
|
Charlotte – Cleveland
|
2.8
|
5
|
94:87
|
26.28
|
31
|
62
|
50.0
|
87.6
|
|
27-Nov
|
Philadelphia – Atlanta
|
2.8
|
5
|
86:100
|
25.39
|
30
|
61
|
49.2
|
84.6
|
|
25-Nov
|
Minnesota – Denver
|
4.25
|
8.5
|
111:124
|
26.39
|
30
|
60
|
50.0
|
88.0
|
|
25-Nov
|
Detroit – Cleveland
|
2.85
|
5
|
88:98
|
27.39
|
30
|
59
|
50.8
|
91.3
|
|
22-Nov
|
Toronto O1 – Orlando U1
|
2.35
|
3.5
|
96:104
|
28.39
|
30
|
58
|
51.7
|
94.6
|
|
22-Nov
|
New York U2 – Boston U2
|
5.5
|
10
|
105:107
|
29.39
|
30
|
57
|
52.6
|
98.0
|
|
21-Nov
|
New Orleans O1 – Atlanta O4
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
96:88
|
28.48
|
29
|
56
|
51.8
|
94.9
|
|
20-Nov
|
LA Clippers U1 – Denver O1
|
4.75
|
9
|
106:99
|
27.57
|
28
|
55
|
50.9
|
91.9
|
|
20-Nov
|
Golden State U1 – Portland U1
|
4
|
8
|
108:94
|
26.66
|
27
|
54
|
50.0
|
88.9
|
|
20-Nov
|
Indiana U2 – Cleveland O5
|
2.75
|
5
|
95:105
|
25.75
|
26
|
53
|
49.1
|
85.8
|
|
19-Nov
|
New Orleans – Phoenix
|
3.75
|
8
|
110:103
|
26.75
|
26
|
52
|
50.0
|
89.2
|
|
18-Nov
|
Minnesota – Houston
|
3.05
|
5.5
|
84:97
|
25.84
|
25
|
51
|
49.0
|
86.1
|
|
18-Nov
|
Washington – Cleveland
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
108:91
|
26.84
|
25
|
50
|
50.0
|
89.5
|
|
17-Nov
|
Sacramento – Chicago
|
2.25
|
3
|
87:101
|
25.93
|
24
|
49
|
49.0
|
86.4
|
|
17-Nov
|
New Orleans – LA Clippers
|
2.05
|
2
|
110:102
|
26.93
|
24
|
48
|
50.0
|
89.8
|
|
17-Nov
|
New Jersey – Indiana
|
2.65
|
4.5
|
83:91
|
26.02
|
23
|
47
|
48.9
|
86.7
|
|
15-Nov
|
Detroit – Dallas
|
2.7
|
5
|
90:95
|
27.02
|
23
|
46
|
50.0
|
90.1
|
|
14-Nov
|
Charlotte – Portland
|
2.3
|
3
|
74:80
|
27.02
|
22
|
45
|
48.9
|
90.1
|
|
14-Nov
|
Indiana – Boston
|
3.5
|
7
|
113:109
|
28.02
|
22
|
44
|
50.0
|
93.4
|
|
13-Nov
|
LA Clippers – toronto
|
2.45
|
3.5
|
89:104
|
27.11
|
21
|
43
|
48.8
|
90.4
|
|
13-Nov
|
Sacramento – Houston
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
109:100
|
28.11
|
21
|
42
|
50.0
|
93.7
|
|
13-Nov
|
New Orleans – portland
|
2.3
|
3
|
78:86
|
27.2
|
20
|
41
|
48.8
|
90.7
|
|
13-Nov
|
minnesota – Dallas
|
6.5
|
11
|
77:89
|
28.2
|
20
|
40
|
50.0
|
94.0
|
|
11-Nov
|
San Antonio – Dallas
|
2.05
|
1.5
|
92:83
|
29.2
|
20
|
39
|
51.3
|
97.3
|
|
11-Nov
|
Milwaukee – Denver
|
2.5
|
3.5
|
108:102
|
28.29
|
19
|
38
|
50.0
|
94.3
|
|
11-Nov
|
Minnesota – Portland
|
4
|
8
|
84:107
|
27.38
|
18
|
37
|
48.6
|
91.3
|
|
11-Nov
|
New York – Atlanta
|
2.95
|
5.5
|
101:114
|
28.38
|
18
|
36
|
50.0
|
94.6
|
|
10-Nov
|
Sacramento – Oklahoma
|
2.15
|
2
|
101:98
|
29.38
|
18
|
35
|
51.4
|
97.9
|
|
10-Nov
|
Memphis – Portland
|
3.15
|
6.5
|
79:93
|
28.47
|
17
|
34
|
50.0
|
94.9
|
|
10-Nov
|
Chicago – Denver
|
2.3
|
3
|
89:90
|
29.47
|
17
|
33
|
51.5
|
98.2
|
|
10-Nov
|
Charlotte – Orlando
|
2.45
|
3.5
|
81:93
|
28.56
|
16
|
32
|
50.0
|
95.2
|
|
9-Nov
|
LA Clippers – New Orleans
|
2.15
|
2
|
84:112
|
29.56
|
16
|
31
|
51.6
|
98.5
|
|
9-Nov
|
New York – Utah
|
3
|
6
|
93:95
|
30.56
|
16
|
30
|
53.3
|
101.9
|
|
9-Nov
|
Philadelphia – Phoenix
|
2.15
|
2
|
115:119
|
29.65
|
15
|
29
|
51.7
|
98.8
|
|
8-Nov
|
Sacramento – Golden State
|
2.4
|
3.5
|
120:107
|
30.65
|
15
|
28
|
53.6
|
102.2
|
|
8-Nov
|
Oklahoma – Orlando
|
3.15
|
6
|
102:74
|
29.74
|
14
|
27
|
51.9
|
99.1
|
|
8-Nov
|
Washington – Phoenix
|
2.15
|
2
|
90:102
|
28.83
|
13
|
26
|
50.0
|
96.1
|
|
7-Nov
|
New Jersey – Boston
|
12
|
14
|
76:86
|
29.83
|
13
|
25
|
52.0
|
99.4
|
|
6-Nov
|
New York – Cleveland
|
4.25
|
8
|
91:100
|
28.92
|
12
|
24
|
50.0
|
96.4
|
|
6-Nov
|
Charlotte – Atlanta
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
103:83
|
29.92
|
12
|
23
|
52.2
|
99.7
|
|
4-Nov
|
Sacramento – Atlanta
|
2.9
|
5.5
|
105:113
|
29.01
|
11
|
22
|
50.0
|
96.7
|
|
4-Nov
|
Houston – LA Lakers
|
2.1
|
2
|
102:103
|
30.01
|
11
|
21
|
52.4
|
100.0
|
|
4-Nov
|
Minnesota – Boston
|
7.5
|
12
|
90:92
|
29.1
|
10
|
20
|
50.0
|
97.0
|
|
4-Nov
|
New Jersey – Denver
|
4.75
|
9
|
94:122
|
28.19
|
9
|
19
|
47.4
|
94.0
|
|
3-Nov
|
Oklahoma – LA Lakers
|
3.65
|
7.5
|
98:101
|
29.19
|
9
|
18
|
50.0
|
97.3
|
|
3-Nov
|
Detroit – Orlando
|
3.35
|
6.5
|
85:80
|
28.28
|
8
|
17
|
47.1
|
94.3
|
|
3-Nov
|
Philadelphia – Boston
|
3.6
|
7
|
74:105
|
27.37
|
7
|
16
|
43.8
|
91.2
|
|
3-Nov
|
Indiana – Denver
|
2.9
|
5.5
|
93:111
|
28.37
|
7
|
15
|
46.7
|
94.6
|
|
2-Nov
|
New York – New Orleans
|
2.25
|
2.5
|
117:111
|
29.37
|
7
|
14
|
50.0
|
97.9
|
|
1-Nov
|
Oklahoma – Portland
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
74:83
|
28.46
|
6
|
13
|
46.2
|
94.9
|
|
1-Nov
|
Toronto - Orlando
|
2.9
|
5.5
|
116:125
|
29.46
|
6
|
12
|
50.0
|
98.2
|
|
31-Oct
|
LA Clippers – Dallas
|
2.8
|
5
|
84:93
|
30.46
|
6
|
11
|
54.5
|
101.5
|
|
31-Oct
|
Houston – Portland
|
2.3
|
3
|
111:107
|
31.46
|
6
|
10
|
60.0
|
104.9
|
|
31-Oct
|
New York – Philadelphia
|
2.1
|
2
|
127:141
|
30.55
|
5
|
9
|
55.6
|
101.8
|
|
30-Oct
|
Minnesota – Cleveland
|
8
|
11
|
87:104
|
31.55
|
5
|
8
|
62.5
|
105.2
|
|
30-Oct
|
Memphis – Toronto
|
2.5
|
3.5
|
115:107
|
32.55
|
5
|
7
|
71.4
|
108.5
|
|
30-Oct
|
New Jersey – Toronto
|
4.75
|
9.5
|
85:95
|
31.64
|
4
|
6
|
66.7
|
105.5
|
|
29-Oct
|
Chicago – San Antonio
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
92:85
|
32.64
|
4
|
5
|
80.0
|
108.8
|
|
28-Oct
|
LA Clippers – Phoenix
|
2.22
|
3
|
107:109
|
31.73
|
3
|
4
|
75.0
|
105.8
|
|
28-Oct
|
Minesotta – New Jersey
|
2.05
|
1.5
|
95:93
|
30.82
|
2
|
3
|
66.7
|
102.7
|
|
28-Oct
|
Memphis – Detroit
|
2.1
|
2
|
74:96
|
29.91
|
1
|
2
|
50.0
|
99.7
|
|
28-Oct
|
Toronto – Cleveland
|
2.86
|
6
|
101:91
|
30.91
|
1
|
1
|
100.0
|
103.0
|
I know that from my experience. A punter finds a way to bet and finally a system that works looks perfect and the future seems bright. The punter starts making tips and fortunately the profit is rising, but there is a moment when all of this is not enough anymore. After a period of money increasing everything goes back and even below the bank the punter started with.
Why does it happen? Many people would say that the system is simply not good enough or the punter’s skills aren’t good, but the truth is different. I think that the most important fact here is the exhaustion which is getting stronger and stronger and reduce the punter’s betting ability. This is something inevitable and unfortunately it is the reason for failing of many good systems.
What can we do about it? There are two methods I use to avoid this symptom. First, I make some pick systems where my mind is not occupied with the match. I don’t think about who is in better form, who is injured etc. I just put all the numbers my system requires and I just wait for the results to come. This is a really hard way, because it needs months of hard work for finding the correct system and filters to clean the system for better results.
I have been doing this for two years and I am still working on that.
The other method is to use a betting help site, which provides picks. There are lots of benefits doing so. First, you don’t bother with team news and stats – you just follow your system. Second, those sites are using many punters, so the factor tiredness is no longer important. You just have to apply the picks they give. Of course, we mustn’t forget the fact, that those sites hire really good punters, who know much about betting and most importantly they have better sources of information, than a regular punter has.
I have been using bettingchoice.co.uk for one of my football betting systems and I must say I am satisfied with the results. The fact, that I don’t make those tips gives me the time to concentrate on my under-over betting in NBA and at the same time I make profit from both systems, which is really good. My ROI from NBA betting is about 23% and the result from football betting is about 25% profit.
I had too much work this days and I totally forgot to write about our contest. I was reminded by my friend Sybin who called me few minutes ago and said: “Hey, aren’t you going to write about my victory?”. Yes, he got his point and he beat my girlfriend and even beat me, which is not good at all.
Here, I must say that he made good performance with 10 points and 120% ROI if he bet on every single match. Another thing I should underline here, is my opinion which is not less strong than before that Petya has talent. If, the matches finished until 75th minute she would won, but unfortunately her picks gone wrong after this period of match time.
However, if she wants I will try her ability again, cos I really believe in her. She got 5 correct picks in a row before this weekend, after all.
Yes, the battle finished equally after the first day. Petya got one perfect score with 2:0 for Tottenham and another correct pick with the win for Aston Villa. That means 4 points – 3 for the correct result and one for the correct winner.
Me and Sybin got 4 correct winners and that means 4 points too.
The battle between the football knowledge and women’s instinct continues.
As I wrote yesterday my girlfriend has been chalenged by one of my closest friends to a battle – who can guess more matches from Premier League. I am also in, but just for fun – the clash is only between them.
Here is a screen shot of their picks and mine too – Petya is my girlfriend, Sybin is the friend and Petar is me 
|
Date
|
Match
|
1
|
X
|
2
|
Petya
|
Sybin
|
Petar
|
|
07.11.2009 16:00
|
Aston Villa – Bolton
|
1.76
|
3.46
|
4.61
|
3:0
|
2:0
|
2:0
|
|
07.11.2009 16:00
|
Blackburn – Portsmouth
|
2.08
|
3.26
|
3.51
|
0:2
|
2:0
|
2:1
|
|
07.11.2009 16:00
|
Manchester City – Burnley
|
1.32
|
4.73
|
10.01
|
1:0
|
3:1
|
3:0
|
|
07.11.2009 16:00
|
Tottenham – Sunderland
|
1.54
|
3.76
|
6.32
|
2:0
|
2:1
|
3:0
|
|
07.11.2009 18:30
|
Wolves – Arsenal
|
8.21
|
4.47
|
1.38
|
1:1
|
0:3
|
1:3
|
|
08.11.2009 14:30
|
Hull – Stoke
|
2.73
|
3.2
|
2.54
|
0:2
|
0:0
|
2:1
|
|
08.11.2009 16:00
|
West Ham – Everton
|
2.42
|
3.22
|
2.84
|
1:1
|
1:2
|
1:1
|
|
08.11.2009 16:00
|
Wigan – Fulham
|
2.27
|
3.21
|
3.11
|
1:0
|
1:1
|
0:0
|
|
08.11.2009 17:00
|
Chelsea – Manchester Utd
|
2.02
|
3.24
|
3.73
|
2:2
|
1:1
|
0:1
|
|
09.11.2009 21:00
|
Liverpool – Birmingham
|
1.33
|
4.63
|
9.72
|
0:2
|
2:1
|
5:1
|
Let the force be with us and who is better to win ( I have no doubts that will be Petya)