Sports Betting Blog

31.03.2009

My biggest mistake with martingale

Filed under: Snooker — Tags: , , , — admin @ 11:09

Right now, I am watching the snooker match between Dave Harold and Stephen Maguire and I remembered what I did few year ago. I want to share this with you, because it is very funny. I had brilliant idea about martingale system and I could not resist to try it which led to my biggest failure in betting.

I remember I walked on the street and thought something like: “Wow, this is great it can not be wrong. I am going to succeed”, well, now I am laughing for this street walk few years ago. I remembered a joke now about succeed, but you will find it on the bottom of this post :) .

Then I also watched snooker and I found out that the underdog has more than 2 coefficient to win in every frame and also even Ronnie lose some frames, so my idea was simply to bet in live martingale for the underdog. Of course the betting would stop when the underdog get a frame in 5 from 9 games and some frames in longer games.

Even now, I do believe there is some point in this system, but I don’t dare to try it again. What happened? Neel Robertson played with some player, I can’t recall his name now and easily won with 5-0 and I lost everything I had.

However, I must say it again, this system can be profitable, but it has to be played very carefully.

Now, the joke. May be many of you know about it, but anyway. So, we have a man climbing Everest. On the 4000 meters a beautiful blond woman stop him and told him: “Do you want sex with me or you want to succeed?” The man answered: “I want to succeed!”. The same situation happened again on the 6000 meters, but with beautiful brown hair woman and the answer was the same.

The final result here is that on the top of Everest, strong black man came up and simply said to the man: “Hello, my friend. My name is Seed!” :) That is :)

30.03.2009

More about my simple betting system

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , , , — admin @ 15:31

Yesterday when I read the comment by Robert (thank you for your interest:)) about my simple NBA betting system I started to think about other sports and leagues where this system can be used. Few words about this system. It is really easy. When I am going to bet I check the percent of under and over endings for both teams in the match. If the sum for over percent is higher I bet over, if it is under I bet under.

The system is profitable. It gives around 50-50 which I use in modified for safety reasons martingale system. For example, yesterday I had 9 winners and only 1 lose. It was really pleasure to watch the games :)

OK about the system in other sports and leagues.

First of all the news are not good. I can see this system working only in NBA and WNBA. Probably it can be used in NCAAB, but the odds there are lower than in NBA. At the other hand this is not a problem for martingale.

In Europe we also have basketball leagues where I can try with this system, but here the problem is very few matches in those leagues. For example every team in NBA play more than 90 matches per year (including play-offs), in Germany the regular season is 34 games for every team. 34 games is the season in Israel too, but I am not 100% sure about it.

Where is the problem when you have only 34 matches. It is simply uncomfortable. The punter must wait for minimum 10 games for safety reasons and to be clearer which team in which direction, under or over is going and after this the punter will have only 24 games left to bet.

May be Korea is a variant with 54 games for every team, but the season there starts in August. I found those leagues in bet365, may be somewhere a bookie offers more leagues.

I will post more about other sports tomorrow, but by now I saw opportunity only in handball. Tennis, soccer and Ice Hockey does not work at all and the reason is the fixed score (2,5 for soccer, 5,5 for hockey) and odds between 1,4 to 2,2.

26.03.2009

A simple NBA betting system

Filed under: Basketball — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 12:05

No football matches today, so it is perfect time for a NBA post. Now, it is about under-over betting and a system that I use and a system that gives me really good profit. It is really simple. First of all I follow all the matches in the league and write down on an excel table, for every team – is the game finished under or over. Than I calculated the under – over percent for every team and I get something like this – Boston under 56%, over – 44%; New Jersey under 49%; over 51%.

Here comes the simple part of my system. When Boston and New Jersey will play tonight I take a look to my excel table, then considered the match as under, because under percenatage is higher than over’s one for both teams and I bet under for 1.91.

What kind of result I get at the end? It is 50-50, but it is really enough for me to play on martingale (well I had to redesign the system to be more safety, I will write about how I did it in another post) and you get your profit.

As example in the last four days I had 17 correct bets and 14 wrong with this system and I am pretty satisfied.

Oh, I remember something I have to write. This simple system is the best system I’ve ever used. With the same modified martingale system I failed many times with betting only in under, variations in under – over and similar. Now, everything works without a problem.

OK, here comes the numbers. Under – Over percentage for every team in NBA.

Boston 56 44
New Jersey 49 51
New York 51 49
Philadelphia 53 47
Toronto 43 57
Dallas 50 50
Houston 51 49
Memphis 54 46
New Orleans 59 41
San Antonio 52 48
Chicago 45 55
Cleveland 59 41
Detroit 54 46
Indiana 46 54
Milwaukee 43 57
Denver 46 54
Minnesota 49 51
Portland 56 44
Oklahoma 52 48
Utah 51 49
Atlanta 58 42
Charlotte 56 44
Miami 49 51
Orlando 54 46
Washington 54 46
Golden State 42 58
LA Clippers 41 59
LA Lakers 45 55
Phoenix 44 56
Sacramento 46 54

In total Under 50.3, Over 49.7

24.03.2009

The golden rule of betting

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , — admin @ 23:54

My really poor start of this 100 Hot matches sequence, 5 of 5 wrong remind me about the golden rule of betting. Never, never and never change the system you are using. Do not change your percent of the bank for the next bet and do not change the way you make your tips.

If you win or if you lose, there is no difference. Many smart punters know they will reach those 50% or whatever percent the punter usually hits and the start does not matter at all. The most important is the final result.

However, I have never started with 5 wrong :( When I saw Bury’s equalizer in the last minute against Rotheram I felt terrible, but tomorrow I will wake up, I will push the button and I will find those Hot matches, which will bring me back over 100% ROI.

Or at least I hope so :)

Good night everyone.

23.03.2009

Bet on underdog at home! True or false? The answer about NBA

Filed under: Basketball, Betting — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 17:06

I wrote few days ago that I’ve read something about this old betting rule – “Bet on underdog at home”. Is it true? I do not know, but I know it is not true about NBA. I checked the results on this season and here is what I’ve found. Until now there were 307 matches where the underdog was at home. Only 105 of them has finished with home win.

I took the odds from betexplorer.com and also I considered the draws as unfinished result. So the win or lose is decided by overtime. When I use odds from betexplorer, it means that the odds are average odds from all houses which offer NBA matches. I think that of course someone can find better odds, but the final result in my research is enough to be considered as real, pure truth :)

Ok here are the results. If you have bet on every match 1% of your bank you would finish with 307 bets, 105 winning bets, 202 losing bets and ROI – 86.27% which is not good at all.

If you take a look team by team you will find that some of the teams has made more winners than others. Oklahoma has 9 wins, Chicago and Indiana both has 8 wins as underdogs at home. They are followed by Memphis, Charlotte and LA Clippers with 7 wins. New York has 6 wins etc.

So what would happen if one of us has chosen the team with most wins as underdog? The answer is nothing special. This punter would lose some money too. Oklahoma has won those 9 games from 28 as underdog and ROI is almost the same as above – 84.2%.

But, here comes the interesting part. If one of us has bet on every match for Chicago or Indiana as underdog at home, he or she would make some money. Chicago won those 8 games from 14 as underdog at home and brings ROI 145.1%.

Indiana has won those 8 games from 15 and brings ROI 132.8%.

So, this are the results for NBA. I will check some other leagues later and NHL of course. Best luck to everyone :)

22.03.2009

Good discution

Filed under: Betting, Football — admin @ 20:53

I do not have much time this weekend (lot of matches and my girlfriend is with me), so I do not have much time to think about betting systems, but I found an interesting discution. It is about draws in soccer and how to use them. Also the punter giving picks has an incredible result – 66% rate of correct draws. In that discution I read also a lot of math information :)

It was nice to read it. Here is the link

20.03.2009

It is really funny

Filed under: Betting — admin @ 11:18

This is my first blog, as I said in my previous post, but it is really cool. The ability to write what you want and to know that somebody will read it is incredible :) Right now I am looking how to put some analytic program like google analytics to find out how many people read it :)

Something about betting. Yesterday I read something about the old story that underdog at home is the best way to place your bet. I did quick research to find out that if you play in that way in NBA (I checked the last 20 games in betexplorer.com) for your 20 units you will receive 20.56 not much, but who know…

I did the same thing in football, of course we have to consider the fact that in soccer we do have three possible endings against two in basketball (I did not disturbed myself with Asian handicap and DNB in this little research) and the results were the same. I checked English League One and Two. The results were around 102% ROI.

In betexplorer I use average odds. so the ROI can be a bit different. I will check more of this tonight.

19.03.2009

Hello :)

Filed under: Betting — admin @ 22:31

Hello to everyone who read this post. This is my first attempt to place some words in blog, so please be merciful :) . I believe I have to write something about me. My name is Petar Ivanov and I am from Bulgaria. I am founder of betsurf.org and I really hope you like it. I think that the database here is something that can help. I will post later some way that I use it.

I think I have to apologies about my poor English. I still learn the language and I hope to improve it, so it will not be problem. If you read a post with perfect English, this only means that my girlfriend has read and correct it :)

Betting is my hobby and I am trying to represent that in this web page. I bet from more than 14 years. I started when the first book company arrived in Bulgaria. I was 13 years old and my father and I put 5 Euro cents in three matches. Of course we did not win. But, from that moment betting is my hobby.

Like everybody my first four – five years was terrible. I bet 5-6 matches in a row, trying to hit the big strike and I was down with really big money. Big for me, I don’t know about you.

After that I started to gain some profit, internet came too and I have the ability to read about betting systems and I like it. Day after day I realized that the truth about betting is not correct picks, but correct using of correct system. Unfortunatly I found that out in the most painful way :) Martingale, of course! I know you have been on the same way or most of you. It is the way.

If I have to continue with my betting history I must say that I spent another two years in researching for safer Martingale system. I am still looking for it. Something more I think I have found something, but it is still in the oven.

What will be this blog about. It will be about betting. I will not post here picks or information about mathces. I will try to post mostly about betting system. We will see.

I do not know more about bloging, so may be this is enough for the first post. South Park starts too :) So I will continue later.

Some final word I bet on soccer 1X2 and NBA under-over. This is what I am focused right now.

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