Sports Betting Blog

30.04.2009

Under – over profit in Spanish handball league

Filed under: Betting, Handball — Tags: , , , , , — admin @ 10:48

Few weeks ago I started to search for continuation of my simple NBA betting system. I found out something that most of you already know – that under – over bets in that kind could be made in just few sports. One of them is basketball and other is handball.

So I made my research in Spanish handball league to find out something that amazed me. There are teams with more than 70% under or over games.

However, this is not as good as it sounds, because in Spanish handball league every team is playing 30 matches only, which is not good at all compared to 80+ in NBA.

But, we still can make some profit and I will try it immediately. Tomorrow Caja and Torrevieja are playing.

Here are the stats:

Team / Round
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
U%
O%
Alcobendas
U
O
U
O
U
O
O
O
U
O
U
O
O
O
U
U
U
U
O
O
U
O
U
O
U
O
46.15
53.85
Almeria
U
U
O
O
O
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
O
U
O
O
U
U
U
U
O
O
O
O
U
O
57.69
42.31
Antequera
U
U
U
O
U
O
U
O
U
O
U
O
O
U
U
U
O
U
U
U
O
O
U
U
O
O
57.69
42.31
Aragorn
U
O
U
O
U
U
O
U
O
O
O
U
O
O
U
U
U
U
O
U
U
O
O
O
O
O
46.15
53.85
Arrate
U
O
U
U
U
U
U
U
O
O
O
O
U
U
U
O
O
U
U
O
O
O
U
O
O
O
50
50
Barcelona
U
U
U
O
U
O
O
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
O
U
O
O
U
U
U
O
73.08
26.92
Caja Ademar
U
O
O
O
U
U
O
U
O
O
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
O
U
O
U
U
O
O
O
57.69
42.31
Ciudad Real
O
O
O
U
U
U
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
O
O
U
U
O
O
46.15
53.85
Cuenca Ciudad
U
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
U
O
O
O
U
U
U
O
O
O
O
O
U
O
O
U
O
26.92
73.08
Darien
U
O
O
U
U
U
U
O
O
O
U
O
U
O
O
O
U
U
U
O
O
O
O
O
=
O
40
60
Granollers
U
O
U
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
U
U
O
O
U
O
O
U
U
O
U
U
U
O
=
O
40
60
Octavio Pilotes
U
U
O
U
O
O
O
O
O
U
O
U
O
U
U
O
O
O
U
O
O
O
U
O
U
O
38.46
61.54
Portland
U
O
O
O
O
U
O
U
O
O
U
U
U
O
O
O
U
U
U
O
O
U
U
U
=
U
52
48
Torrevieja
U
O
O
O
U
U
O
O
U
O
O
U
O
O
O
U
O
U
U
U
O
O
O
O
O
O
34.62
65.38
SD Teucro
O
O
O
O
U
U
O
O
U
O
U
O
U
O
U
U
U
U
U
O
U
O
U
O
=
O
48
52
Valladolid
U
O
O
O
O
U
O
O
O
O
U
O
O
O
U
U
U
U
O
U
O
O
O
O
U
U
38.46
61.54

One more thing, take a closer look to Barcelona and their 73% under games. The same thing is happen with Cuenca Ciudad with over games. A bit less profitable are Octavio Pilotes, Torrevieja and Valladolid with over games again.

27.04.2009

Best sequence of soccer Hot matches ever. 188.8% ROI!

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 10:19

Two weeks ago I was in deep trouble when the sequence of hot matches gave only 89% ROI. I started to think what went wrong, but then I just gave up and started again. Just to see what will happen. And it happens. 107 soccer matches, every of them above two coefficient, 61 wins and 46 losers and 188.8% ROI with 3% of the bank used for every bet and all of this for 13 days.

Not bad, right?

You can see this sequence of soccer Hot matches here.

I’m really crossing fingers this good period will continue, but who knows. I will be glad of 110%.

Good luck to everyone.

25.04.2009

How I маке my soccer database

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , — admin @ 13:35

Few days ago I wanted to post about my previous sequence of 100 soccer hotmatches, where I got only 86% of ROI. The post would be with some stats and analysis why those bad results happened. However, the sequence now shows incredible results of 188% ROI, so I decided to write about the soccer database, which makes this result possible. I am pretty sure such a database is unique and I am also sure it can be profitable.

There is something I am not sure about and this is: Do I use that database correctly? I think that if a punter better than me take a look in it he or she will find some better way to bet.

OK, first of all few words about how I make it. You can easily see that the database is divided with sectors. Few of them represent the coefficient for the favorites and few of them shows some strange sectors. F.e. here is a part from the database:

1
2
3
4
5
6
2.06 – 2,1
0,2351 – 0,2400
31
35.5
25.8
38.7
2,06 – 2,1
0,2401 – 0,2450
119
48.7
30.3
21.0
2,06 – 2,1
0,2451 – 0,2500
119
38.7
28.6
32.8
2,06 – 2,1
0,2501 – 0,2550
27
55.6
22.2
22.2

You see that here the odds for the favorite are between 2.06 and 2.1. All of the coefficients are taken by betexplorer.com. The part with the coefficients is clear. How I get the next column. The formula is pretty easy and here is it:

R=A/(A+B+C) where R is the result, A is the coefficient for the favorite, B is the draw coefficient and C is the coefficient for the underdog.

This result in my database is followed by the number of matches I have already checked and three columns for the percentages. I have to say something really important. The first column from those three does not shows home win percentage, it shows the percentages for win of the favorite. The second column shows draws percentage and the third one the percentages for underdog’s win.

Every morning I take an excel sheet, open my browser, copy and paste the matches and the odds and placed every match in the particular field of the database. When the match is over I update the database with the result. That’s it.

22.04.2009

To bet on 4:4 draw for 401 coefficient

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , — admin @ 14:21

Andrey Arshavin, taken from guardian.co.uk

Andrey Arshavin, taken from guardian.co.uk

A friend of mine uses really strange system of betting, which has been extremely profitable this days. What is he doing? He picks a match almost every day and simply bet on exact score 4:4 with 401 coefficient.

Yesterday he won with Liverpool and Arsenal and a week ago he made the same thing with the match between Chelsea and Liverpool.

He has won one more time since the start of using this system and again the match was in England. The match was Arsenal versus Tottenham if my memories are correct.

However, this system is not so profitable, even those 800 units he collected this week. I checked with Soccerstats tracker the results from more than 30 championships to find out the following: In season 2007/2008 there were only 14 games finished 4:4 draw and Aston Villa Chelsea and Tottenham made it twice.

The season before that one – 2006/2007 only Antalya from Turkey has made it twice and the matches finished with the exact result 4:4 were 11.

In the season 2005/2006 the results from my research are: 10 games and no one have made it twice.

Almost the same were results in the 2004/2005 season: 11 games with no one to score 4:4 twice.

My friend would be very happy if he had started this system in the season 2003/2004. Then 4:4 were finished 19 games and Visla Plock has made it twice.

Finally I must say it that even not so profitable in the long term I think this system is really fun. Especially to watch it with friends and bottles of beer.

21.04.2009

A quiz for punters

Filed under: Basketball, Betting — Tags: , , , — admin @ 11:15
nba chart for under and over

nba chart for under and over

  • Can you make money from this chart above? It is for under over betting in the whole regular season in NBA. The yellow line represents over endings, the pink one is for under rating and the blue one is the percent between them. I must say here that the chart is divided by periods of 60 matches in NBA and the yellow and pink lines are the matches multiplied twice – once for both teams. So the middle for those lines is 60 and of course the middle for the blue line is 50, as we have 100%.

    • Do you see the pattern? I do and I will try it next season. I am really curious will the pattern repeat next season.

    Something else I want to share is that fact that made impression on me. I wrote above that every period consist 60 matches and from the chart we can see that after 60 – 60 (or 30-30) under – over period we have a period with deviated results. Under or over does not matter. Is it possible from the first 20 games to guess where this period is going to and to bet for that guessing? What do you think?

    19.04.2009

    Great day for Hot Matches :)

    Filed under: Football, announcements — Tags: , , , — admin @ 11:21

    Right now I am celebrating Easter with my family and friends, but I am really glad to spend few minutes and to write down a note for yesterday’s good results in Betsurf Hotmatches.

    15 wins and only 4 loses with every pick over 2 coefficient. I am really pleased. Right now the ROI is 142.2 % from 46 matches. Here are the matches from yesterday:

    Ger.
    Köln – Stuttgart
    2
    2.1
    0:3
    Sco. 
    Inverness CT – Hamilton
    1
    2.07
    1:1
    Ita. 2nd
    Cittadella – Pisa
    1
    2.05
    1:0
    Ita. 2nd
    Avellino – Piacenza
    1
    2.38
    1:1
    Swe.
    Väsby – Åtvidabergs
    2
    2.46
    0:2
    Eng. League One
    Southend – Leicester
    2
    2.27
    0:2
    Eng. League One
    Hereford – Colchester
    2
    2.4
    0:2
    Sco. 2nd
    Stirling – Raith
    2
    2.08
    0:1
    Eng. Conference
    Kettering – Wrexham
    1
    2.2
    1:0
    North. Ire.
    Coleraine – Crusaders Belfast
    2
    2.37
    0:1
    Serb.
    Napredak – OFK Beograd
    1
    2.16
    1:0
    Swi. 
    Vaduz – Luzern
    2
    2.48
    1:2
    Spa. 2nd
    Levante – Huesca
    1
    2.07
    1:0
    Cze.
    Zlin – Pribram
    1
    2.19
    2:0
    Fra.
    Nantes – Nice
    1
    2.09
    2:0
    Neth.
    De Graafschap – Groningen
    2
    2.27
    0:1
    Por.
    Nacional – Braga
    1
    2.39
    1:1
    Spa.  
    Ath. Bilbao – La Coruna
    1
    2.1
    0:1
    MLS
    New York – Salt Lake
    1
    2.19
    2:0

    18.04.2009

    Betsurf’s today’s matches and hotmatches will not be updated on sunday

    Filed under: announcements — Tags: , , , — admin @ 9:53

    Hello to everyone. Just a note. Betsurf’s pages Today matches stats and Hot matches will not be updated on sunday. The reason is simple. In Bulgaria this sunday is Easter and I will be with my family.

    The updates will be back on monday, so I hope we will meet soon.

    Best wishes :)

    16.04.2009

    Finally, there is profit with streaks in NBA

    Filed under: Basketball, Betting — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 22:16

    Finally I found some profit in under over streaks in NBA. The trick is to bet on every 5th game in the row and to place only one bet. Not more, only one bet. However, the ROI is so small, that it is not worth to play it at all. If, I have to talk with numbers the ROI is exactly 105.82%.

    Not so good for the entire regular season.

    So, I have to say it. I am really disappointed. I have read so many times the streaks are the best way of betting. Things like a punter will always has profit if the bet is placed on the 4th match in the row etc, but all of this is simply not correct for under – over in NBA.

    I checked also what will happen if the punter is placed only one bet on the third match in the row, but the result was disappointing – only 96% ROI.

    Here comes the good part of this post. Using the streaks in under over in NBA gives 50 to 56% correct results. This can be used for good profit. I am quite sure about it and I will try it.

    Down is the table, team by team with the results of straight betting with streaks.
    On 3rd
    On 5th
    Team
    +
    -
    +
    -
    Boston
    12
    11
    2
    3
    New Jersey
    12
    5
    3
    3
    New York
    9
    6
    5
    1
    Philadelphia
    9
    9
    2
    2
    Toronto
    6
    14
    2
    1
    Dallas
    10
    11
    0
    2
    Houston
    9
    7
    3
    0
    Memphis
    15
    7
    1
    6
    New Orleans
    11
    8
    5
    1
    San Antonio
    9
    9
    4
    2
    Chicago
    7
    15
    2
    1
    Cleveland
    6
    16
    2
    2
    Detroit
    8
    14
    4
    1
    Indiana
    10
    7
    5
    1
    Milwaukee
    15
    6
    1
    6
    Denver
    7
    11
    2
    3
    Minnesota
    10
    11
    4
    2
    Portland
    5
    10
    2
    1
    Oklahoma
    8
    9
    2
    2
    Utah
    11
    8
    6
    2
    Atlanta
    8
    8
    3
    3
    Charlotte
    11
    9
    2
    3
    Miami
    8
    9
    1
    4
    Orlando
    11
    10
    2
    1
    Washington
    14
    5
    3
    3
    Golden State
    11
    10
    5
    1
    LA Clippers
    12
    6
    3
    4
    LA Lakers
    10
    9
    3
    2
    Phoenix
    7
    13
    1
    1
    Sacramento
    8
    13
    2
    2
    289
    286
    82
    66
    551.99
    575
    156.62
    148
    96.00
    105.82

    15.04.2009

    NBA under – over percentage

    Filed under: Basketball, Betting — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 9:16

    There are only 12 games left in NBA regular season, so now is the time for post season analysis. I post few week ago for the percentage of under – over games for every team and my simple betting system. Here are the final results (of course without those 12 games, but they will not change the situation).

    Team
    U %
    O %
    Boston
    53
    47
    New Jersey
    49
    51
    New York
    54
    46
    Philadelphia
    49
    51
    Toronto
    42
    58
    Dallas
    53
    48
    Houston
    51
    49
    Memphis
    54
    46
    New Orleans
    62
    38
    San Antonio
    51
    49
    Chicago
    45
    55
    Cleveland
    58
    43
    Detroit
    53
    47
    Indiana
    42
    58
    Milwaukee
    44
    56
    Denver
    46
    54
    Minnesota
    50
    50
    Portland
    56
    44
    Oklahoma
    50
    50
    Utah
    49
    51
    Atlanta
    55
    45
    Charlotte
    56
    44
    Miami
    49
    51
    Orlando
    54
    46
    Washington
    53
    47
    Golden State
    43
    58
    LA Clippers
    44
    56
    LA Lakers
    49
    51
    Phoenix
    44
    56
    Sacramento
    45
    55

    14.04.2009

    Betting on Under – Over streaks in NBA

    Filed under: Basketball, Betting — Tags: , , , , , — admin @ 10:28

    I’m sure you all have read about how to bet on streaks and that there are some great systems where we all can win money if we use them. At the beginning of the regular season in NBA I started to follow under – over streaks with the idea to try some of those systems. So, what happened?

    After a season of writing down on an excel table and after some days of reading the data in this table I finally reached the conclusion that using the streaks about Over and Under would not help at all.

    Of course, there are some teams which are profitable, but you have to pick those teams and hope your guessing is correct.

    Now, let’s see some results.

    1. If the punter at the beginning of the season had decided to bet on every streak after two consecutive under or over games, today he or she would have 98.32% ROI.
    2. If the punter had decided to bet after three consecutive games, he or she would have 100.39% ROI. 3. If he or she had bet after the fourth consecutive game – the punter would have 99.74% ROI.

    Not good, huh.

    Now, let’s talk about one of the most used streaks system. Bet after three consecutive games and place only one bet, win or lose, doesn’t matter. Only one bet. I read something about this system here. However, the result here will be not better at all. The ROI is 100.88%.

    I will say it again, the punter still has a chance to make some money, if he or she picks the right team to follow. The reason for that is the fact that there is a pattern of streaks for different teams. F.e. Utah has 8 streaks with more than 3 consecutive under or over games. The same can be said for teams like Atlanta with 6 streaks, New York again with 6 streaks, LA Clippers with 7 streaks etc.

    In contrast, teams like Phoenix and Toronto have only 3 streak with 4 consecutive games, which can be also used by the punter.

    Some last words. Below you can see a table, where I placed some data about losing and winning bets for every team if we try 4 different strategies of betting on under – over streaks in NBA. The stats are for betting after the second, third and fourth consecutive game to the end of the streak and for placing only one bet after the third consecutive under or over game.

    After 2
    After 3
    After 4
    On 4th
     
    +
    -
    +
    -
    +
    -
    +
    -
    Boston
    18
    24
    7
    12
    2
    5
    5
    7
    New Jersey
    23
    17
    11
    12
    5
    6
    6
    6
    New York
    26
    16
    17
    9
    11
    6
    6
    3
    Philadelphia
    16
    17
    6
    9
    2
    3
    4
    6
    Toronto
    15
    19
    9
    6
    6
    3
    3
    3
    Dallas
    13
    19
    2
    9
    0
    2
    2
    6
    Houston
    16
    16
    7
    7
    4
    3
    3
    5
    Memphis
    24
    19
    9
    15
    1
    8
    8
    7
    New Orleans
    29
    18
    18
    10
    12
    5
    6
    5
    San Antonio
    23
    16
    13
    8
    8
    6
    6
    3
    Chicago
    13
    21
    8
    7
    3
    3
    3
    4
    Cleveland
    13
    22
    8
    6
    4
    4
    4
    2
    Detroit
    19
    22
    11
    8
    6
    5
    6
    2
    Indiana
    24
    16
    14
    9
    8
    4
    6
    4
    Milwaukee
    23
    21
    9
    15
    1
    7
    7
    8
    Denver
    19
    18
    12
    7
    7
    5
    5
    2
    Minnesota
    25
    20
    14
    8
    8
    5
    6
    4
    Portland
    14
    15
    9
    5
    6
    3
    3
    2
    Oklahoma
    16
    16
    8
    8
    4
    4
    4
    4
    Utah
    29
    18
    18
    11
    10
    8
    8
    4
    Atlanta
    28
    17
    20
    7
    14
    5
    6
    2
    Charlotte
    20
    20
    9
    11
    4
    4
    5
    6
    Miami
    14
    17
    6
    8
    1
    5
    5
    3
    Orlando
    15
    19
    4
    11
    2
    2
    2
    9
    Washington
    24
    19
    10
    13
    3
    6
    7
    6
    Golden State
    21
    20
    12
    10
    5
    6
    6
    4
    LA Clippers
    23
    16
    11
    11
    4
    6
    7
    5
    LA Lakers
    23
    20
    16
    11
    9
    5
    5
    5
    Phoenix
    10
    20
    3
    7
    1
    2
    2
    4
    Sacramento
    16
    20
    7
    8
    2
    4
    4
    3
    592
    558
    308
    278
    153
    140
    150
    134
    1131
    1150
    588.3
    586
    292.2
    293
    286.5
    284
    ROI 98.32
    ROI 100.39
    ROI 99.74
    ROI 100.88

    Finally, I read similar post about the danger of betting on streaks here. Maybe it will be useful for you. I don’t know. Best wishes!

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