I am going to bet under on next five Phoenix games with martingale. I know it is a bit dangerous and I can lose all my bank, but I’ve got some reasons. From the beginning of WNBA Phoenix played 8 matches and all of them are over.
The longest strike of over I know about was New York’s last season with 12 overs in a row.
I think Phoenix will make at least one under in the next few games. So, crossing fingers.
As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.
I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right – betting on French Ligue 1 is nonsense.
In the table below are all stats for this niche. I will start searching for another one, which gave small amount of profit – to bet in the league for the favorites with odds higher than 2.2. This gave profit of 110% last season. It is interesting if those result would be something regular or they are not.
|
1.71 – 2
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
|
2008/2009
|
40
|
31
|
13
|
47.62
|
36.90
|
15.48
|
|
2007/2008
|
54
|
35
|
19
|
50.00
|
32.41
|
17.59
|
|
2006/2007
|
56
|
24
|
19
|
56.57
|
24.24
|
19.19
|
|
2005/2006
|
43
|
32
|
19
|
45.74
|
34.04
|
20.21
|
|
2004/2005
|
49
|
29
|
15
|
52.69
|
31.18
|
16.13
|
|
2003/2004
|
58
|
32
|
14
|
55.77
|
30.77
|
13.46
|
|
2002/2003
|
56
|
20
|
30
|
52.83
|
18.87
|
28.30
|
Recently I’ve been reading a post in punterslounge forum about a football rating system. The posts there are really fascinating and throw me in deep thinking about maths and how we use it.
However, I have read only 3 pages until now, because I have other stuff to do, but the post helped me with some fresh ideas, which I am going to give a try.
I was really impressed with how we can use the idea of Gauss about Least Squares Approximations . Right now I have put all other betting stuff aside and just read about this method.
I hope it will help me improve my results, which are quite bad these days.
I am staring at the numbers in the last two days with hope to find something that will give a clue about profitable betting. You know I hope to find some pattern which will lead me to profit in Finnish 1st league. I use results from past years and compare them to this one. I got some good guess on betting for the favorite with coefficients between 2.01 and 2.2, but unfortunately the first bet was unsuccessful – Lahti lost against TPS Turku yesterday with 2:4. There will be more games, so I am crossing fingers.
However, I do not lose my hope. In the past year there was a similar case. In the first 50 games the favorites with odds higher than 2.2 had zero wins from 11 games. In the next 50 matches 8 were with similar odds and 50% of them were won by the favorites which gave nice profit from 115%. That happened 3 years ago.
Another interesting fact is that in the period from 50th to 100th match in the league, the favorites with odds higher than 2.2 have won 40 or more percent in 6 of 8 years. Those numbers show profit. Even more this year two matches were played by now and both games were taken by the favorites. I will definitely try this next year.
OK let’s see the numbers. Here is the table for results between 50th and 100th match in Finnish first league:
|
From 51th to 100th game in percentage
|
|
|
Favorite’s win
|
Draw
|
Underdog’s win
|
|
|
09
|
08
|
07
|
06
|
05
|
04
|
03
|
02
|
01
|
09
|
08
|
07
|
06
|
05
|
04
|
03
|
02
|
01
|
09
|
08
|
07
|
06
|
05
|
04
|
03
|
02
|
01
|
|
< 1.4
|
50
|
50
|
50
|
100
|
50
|
100
|
57.1
|
33.3
|
0
|
0
|
50
|
50
|
0
|
50
|
0
|
42.9
|
0
|
100
|
50
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
66.7
|
0
|
|
1.41 – 1.7
|
33.3
|
84.6
|
57.1
|
62.5
|
75
|
75
|
55.6
|
66.7
|
66.7
|
0
|
7.69
|
28.6
|
0
|
18.8
|
0
|
11.1
|
33.3
|
22.2
|
66.7
|
7.69
|
14.3
|
37.5
|
6.25
|
25
|
33.3
|
0
|
11.1
|
|
1.71 – 2
|
100
|
40
|
37.5
|
69.6
|
69.2
|
57.1
|
76.9
|
40
|
63.6
|
0
|
20
|
50
|
8.7
|
30.8
|
42.9
|
15.4
|
26.7
|
0
|
0
|
40
|
12.5
|
21.7
|
0
|
0
|
7.69
|
33.3
|
36.4
|
|
2.01 – 2.2
|
0
|
55.6
|
53.8
|
42.9
|
50
|
50
|
12.5
|
41.7
|
31.3
|
0
|
33.3
|
7.69
|
28.6
|
0
|
25
|
50
|
33.3
|
18.8
|
100
|
11.1
|
38.5
|
28.6
|
50
|
25
|
37.5
|
25
|
50
|
|
2.21 >
|
100
|
55.6
|
23.5
|
50
|
50
|
45.5
|
50
|
40
|
25
|
0
|
27.8
|
29.4
|
12.5
|
30
|
45.5
|
33.3
|
30
|
41.7
|
0
|
16.7
|
47.1
|
37.5
|
20
|
9.09
|
16.7
|
30
|
33.3
|
