I am really pleased with that. I started betting on him in the middle of May and now I’ve won. Even better almost no one believed he could win this week and the odds were higher than I expected.
So I get that money and no more bets on F1 for this season.
May be I will start next year or WRC for Kimi again, who knows?
After a few successful trials, the soccer hotmatches had two really bad months. In order to get back on track, I decided to return to an older soccer database, with strong hope that this will give me again those 130-180% ROI which I’ve got in the beginning of the year.
Crossing fingers.
What is going on with my research about betting on under or over in Basketball? Nothing so special, I would say, and the reason for that is the fact that the ROI has dropped from 17% to just four percents. However, there is good news and this is Gauss method for least square approximation. This is the most profitable method. Yes, with just four percents ROI, but it is a start. May be the way that the data is being collected is wrong, or maybe 4% is not so small profit. We will see.
Here are the results:
Under-over percentages from previous matches give 95.5 ROI
Under-over percentages from previous special matches give 101.3 ROI
Gauss method with data collected from last 10 matches for every team give 104 ROI
Gauss method with data collected from last 10 mutual games give 98.39 ROI
Average score made by teams in last 10 games for every team give 101.29 ROI
Average score made by teams in last 10 mutual games give 89.71 ROI
The last row is really a surprise for me. How is it possible the average for mutual games to be the worst result? Really strange, but a fact.
I am asking myself this question right now and the reason is simple. If you take a look at the table below you will see that the gap between matches finished over and under has never been so huge like right now. As far as I remember some previous seasons in NBA and WNBA the bookies are trying to hold the percentages 50-50 between unders and overs.
Would it be the same way this year? I do not know, but I will try it.
Here is the table:
|
Teams
|
U
|
O
|
|
Atlanta
|
35
|
65
|
|
Chicago
|
30
|
70
|
|
Connecticut
|
58
|
42
|
|
Detroit
|
47
|
53
|
|
Indiana
|
37
|
63
|
|
Los Angeles
|
69
|
31
|
|
Minnesota
|
40
|
60
|
|
New York
|
44
|
56
|
|
Phoenix
|
32
|
68
|
|
Sacramento
|
45
|
55
|
|
San Antonio
|
37
|
63
|
|
Seattle
|
59
|
41
|
|
Washington
|
44
|
56
|
If we speak in general all under finished games are 43.6% and over finished games are, well here the math is easy
So, if those numbers above must go to 50-50 percent there is clear profit. I will try it. Crossing fingers.
I am getting a bit lazy these days with just following WNBA Under – Over and football matches with odds over 2.21. Huh, I am following my football hotmatches too. Here are the results for football matches with odds over 2.21 for July:
With a win for the favorites ended 39.84% of the matches. Compared to June it is 6% down.
With draws finished 26.42% of the matches. The percent for June was the same – 25%.
With a loss for the favorite finished 33.74% of the matches. The underdogs won more matches than last month. The percent then was only 29.
246 matches with odds higher that 2.21 were played in July.
It is really interesting for me to find out what the situation would be in August, where matches like that will be a lot more than 246.
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