I found something that really hit me in the head. I started a paper sheet project a few weeks ago. Short explanation: the project is something about soccer betting on all favorites where the odds for them are over 2.2. What a big surprise came when I saw the first 60 games with more than 50% wins for the favorites. Here are the games:
|
1
|
Jap. Cup
|
Niigata – Yokohama
|
1
|
0:3
|
0
|
0
|
|
2
|
Jap. Cup
|
Kashiva – Kobe
|
1
|
3:0
|
1
|
50
|
|
3
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Yokohama – Fukuoka
|
1
|
0:1
|
1
|
33.33
|
|
4
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Gifu – Mito
|
2
|
1:1
|
1
|
25
|
|
5
|
World Cup
|
Costa Rika – USA
|
1
|
3:1
|
2
|
40
|
|
6
|
Bra.
|
Santo Andres – Santos
|
2
|
3:3
|
2
|
33.33
|
|
7
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Jastrzebie – Katowice
|
1
|
0:1
|
2
|
28.57
|
|
8
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Swinoujscie – Zaglebie
|
1
|
2:3
|
2
|
25
|
|
9
|
World Cup
|
North Korea – Iran
|
2
|
0:0
|
2
|
22.22
|
|
10
|
World Cup
|
Malawi – Burkina Faso
|
1
|
0:1
|
2
|
20
|
|
11
|
Cze. 2nd
|
Sparta Prague B – Dukla
|
1
|
1:0
|
3
|
27.27
|
|
12
|
World Cup
|
Gabon – Togo
|
1
|
3:0
|
4
|
33.33
|
|
13
|
World Cup
|
Macedonia – Norway
|
2
|
0:0
|
4
|
30.77
|
|
14
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Ancona – Rimini
|
1
|
1:1
|
4
|
28.57
|
|
15
|
World Cup
|
Lithuania – Romania
|
2
|
0:1
|
5
|
33.33
|
|
16
|
World Cup
|
Cyprus – Montenegro
|
1
|
2:2
|
5
|
31.25
|
|
17
|
World Cup
|
Uruguay – Brazil
|
2
|
0:4
|
6
|
35.29
|
|
18
|
World Cup
|
Trinidad & Tobago – Costa Rica
|
2
|
2:3
|
7
|
38.89
|
|
19
|
MLS
|
Kansas City – Columbus
|
1
|
0:2
|
7
|
36.84
|
|
20
|
Jap. Cup
|
Yamagata – Kashiwa
|
1
|
1:1
|
7
|
35
|
|
21
|
Jap. Cup
|
Kobe – Shimizu
|
2
|
1:2
|
8
|
38.1
|
|
22
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Toyama Kataller – Verdy
|
2
|
0:3
|
9
|
40.91
|
|
23
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Fukuoka – Kusatsu
|
1
|
1:2
|
9
|
39.13
|
|
24
|
Euro U21
|
Kazakhstan 21 – Montenegro 21
|
1
|
0:2
|
9
|
37.5
|
|
25
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Ljungskile – Norrk?ping
|
1
|
2:2
|
9
|
36
|
|
26
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Tromsdalen – H?nefoss
|
2
|
0:1
|
10
|
38.46
|
|
27
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Alta – Sarpsborg
|
1
|
3:0
|
11
|
40.74
|
|
28
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Stavanger IF – Bryne
|
2
|
0:2
|
12
|
42.86
|
|
29
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Eibar – Girona
|
2
|
2:2
|
12
|
41.38
|
|
30
|
Bra.
|
Sport Recife – Flamengo
|
1
|
4:2
|
13
|
43.33
|
|
31
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Grosseto – Livorno
|
1
|
2:0
|
14
|
45.16
|
|
32
|
World Cup
|
Mali – Ghana
|
1
|
0:2
|
14
|
43.75
|
|
33
|
World Cup
|
Algeria – Egypt
|
2
|
3:1
|
14
|
42.42
|
|
34
|
World Cup
|
Peru – Ecuador
|
2
|
1:2
|
15
|
44.12
|
|
35
|
Bra.
|
Fluminense – Botafogo
|
1
|
1:0
|
16
|
45.71
|
|
36
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Trollh?ttan FC – Angelholms
|
2
|
1:2
|
17
|
47.22
|
|
37
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Syrianska FC – Sundsvall
|
1
|
1:2
|
17
|
45.95
|
|
38
|
Lit.
|
Kruoja Pakruojis – Siauliai
|
2
|
0:5
|
18
|
47.37
|
|
39
|
Dan. 2nd
|
AB Copenhagen – Herfolge
|
1
|
0:4
|
18
|
46.15
|
|
40
|
Rom.
|
FC Brasov – FC Timisoara
|
2
|
1:0
|
18
|
45
|
|
41
|
Rom.
|
CS Otopeni – Farul
|
1
|
6:0
|
19
|
46.34
|
|
42
|
Rom.
|
G. Buzau – G. Bistrita
|
2
|
2:1
|
19
|
45.24
|
|
43
|
Rom.
|
Unirea – Steaua Bucharest
|
2
|
1:1
|
19
|
44.19
|
|
44
|
World Cup
|
Ecuador – Argentina
|
2
|
2:0
|
19
|
43.18
|
|
45
|
World Cup
|
Venezuela – Uruguay
|
2
|
2:2
|
19
|
42.22
|
|
46
|
Lat.
|
Daugava Riga – Tranzits Ventspils
|
1
|
2:0
|
20
|
43.48
|
|
47
|
Swe. 2nd
|
J?nk?pings – Mj?llby
|
2
|
0:3
|
21
|
44.68
|
|
48
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Brescia – Empoli
|
1
|
3:0
|
22
|
45.83
|
|
49
|
Bul.
|
Slavia Sofia – Lok. Sofia
|
2
|
2:2
|
22
|
44.9
|
|
50
|
Bul.
|
Spartak Varna – Litex Lovech
|
2
|
0:4
|
23
|
46
|
|
51
|
Ice.
|
Fjolnir – Fylkir
|
2
|
1:3
|
24
|
47.06
|
|
52
|
Nor. 2nd
|
H?nefoss – Ham-Kam
|
1
|
1:1
|
24
|
46.15
|
|
53
|
Ire. Cup
|
Tralee Dynamos – Salthill Devon
|
1
|
2:1
|
25
|
47.17
|
|
54
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Murcia – Salamanca
|
1
|
2:1
|
26
|
48.15
|
|
55
|
Rom. Cup
|
CFR Cluj – FC Timisoara
|
1
|
3:0
|
27
|
49.09
|
|
56
|
Bra.
|
Botafogo – Santos
|
1
|
2:0
|
28
|
50
|
|
57
|
MLS
|
DC United – Chicago
|
1
|
2:1
|
29
|
50.88
|
|
58
|
MLS
|
Kansas City – New England
|
1
|
3:1
|
30
|
51.72
|
|
59
|
MLS
|
Dallas – Houston
|
2
|
1:3
|
31
|
52.54
|
|
60
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Tochigi SC – Tosu
|
2
|
0:5
|
32
|
53.33
|
%%awsomnews1%%
[...] View original post here: Back the favorites! | Sports Betting Blog [...]
Pingback by Back the favorites! | Sports Betting Blog | Algeria Today — 16.06.2009 @ 3:48
[...] Excerpt from: Back the favorites! | Sports Betting Blog [...]
Pingback by Back the favorites! | Sports Betting Blog | Costarica Today — 16.06.2009 @ 4:40
[...] Read more: Back the favorites! | Sports Betting Blog [...]
Pingback by Back the favorites! | Sports Betting Blog | Cyprus today — 16.06.2009 @ 4:54
[...] original here: Back the favorites! | Sports Betting Blog Tags: 14-45-16-, paraguay, phoenix, world-cup- [...]
Pingback by Back the favorites! | Sports Betting Blog | Kazakhstan today — 16.06.2009 @ 7:28
Hi. Nice finding. From your 60 matches stats > 53 % home win; 22 % draw & 25 % away win.
i notice that the % of draw is only 22%. that’s surprising because i always thought that when the favorite teams’ odds is above 2.20 there is a high chance of draw !!! Do you think betting on double chance 12 (home win or away win) for this kind of matches will be profitable ? appreciate your comment. thanks.
regards
ren
Comment by ren — 18.06.2009 @ 9:45
Quick refresh
the matches now are more than 70 and the percent is all the same. With 53% of favorite’s win I think the only method is to back the favorites. However, I post that in one sport betting forum. I asked them about their opinion and a punter there replied to me that he had made the same research few years ago and finally got 39% wins for favorites, which means that the draws percent must get higher than those 22%.
I am not sure, but I think this 53% can be explained with the period of time we are right now. There are no big championships like Premiership, Primera etc. I will continue follow this, but I will bet on it after 1st of September, after a month with the big guns involved.
Comment by admin — 18.06.2009 @ 10:39
[...] am getting a bit lazy these days with just following WNBA Under
Pingback by Football matches with coefficient more than 2.2. The results for July from 246 matches | Sports Betting Blog — 08.09.2009 @ 19:44