I read something about that way of betting which would be really profitable. The idea is simple where the underdog play at home bet for it and the margin that the bookies give.
Like most of those betting strategies this one doesn’t work or at least it does not work with NBA betting.
Here is my paper sheet with the first 100 matches where the underdog played at home. The ROI is 69.1% so I would lose 1/3 of my bank if I have been betting on that idea.
I started with 30 units and 3% of the bank for every bet.
|
Date
|
Match
|
Odds
|
Margin
|
Res.
|
Bank
|
+
|
All
|
%
|
ROI
|
|
13-Dec
|
Oklahoma – Cleveland
|
2.45
|
3.5
|
89:102
|
20.74
|
48
|
100
|
48.0
|
69.1
|
|
13-Dec
|
LA Clippers – San Antonio
|
2.9
|
5.5
|
90:115
|
21.74
|
48
|
99
|
48.5
|
72.5
|
|
13-Dec
|
Toronto – Houston
|
2.1
|
2
|
101:88
|
22.74
|
48
|
98
|
49.0
|
75.8
|
|
11-Dec
|
Toronto – Atlanta
|
2.55
|
4
|
89:111
|
21.84
|
47
|
97
|
48.5
|
72.8
|
|
11-Dec
|
Philadelphia – Houston
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
91:96
|
22.84
|
47
|
96
|
49.0
|
76.1
|
|
10-Dec
|
Detroit – Denver
|
3.5
|
7
|
101:99
|
23.84
|
47
|
95
|
49.5
|
79.5
|
|
10-Dec
|
Washington – Boston
|
3.6
|
7.5
|
102:104
|
22.93
|
46
|
94
|
48.9
|
76.4
|
|
10-Dec
|
Utah – Orlando
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
120:111
|
22.02
|
45
|
93
|
48.4
|
73.4
|
|
9-Dec
|
Minnesota – New Orleans
|
2.4
|
3
|
96:97
|
21.11
|
44
|
92
|
47.8
|
70.4
|
|
9-Dec
|
Houston – Cleveland
|
2.25
|
2.5
|
95:85
|
20.2
|
43
|
91
|
47.3
|
67.3
|
|
9-Dec
|
Indiana – Portland
|
2.6
|
4
|
91:102
|
19.29
|
42
|
90
|
46.7
|
64.3
|
|
8-Dec
|
LA Clippers – Orlando
|
3.4
|
7
|
86:97
|
20.29
|
42
|
89
|
47.2
|
67.6
|
|
8-Dec
|
Memphis – Cleveland
|
3.65
|
7.5
|
111:109
|
21.29
|
42
|
88
|
47.7
|
71.0
|
|
8-Dec
|
Charlotte – Denver
|
2.35
|
3
|
107:95
|
20.38
|
41
|
87
|
47.1
|
67.9
|
|
7-Dec
|
Philadelphia – Denver
|
3.35
|
6.5
|
83:93
|
19.47
|
40
|
86
|
46.5
|
64.9
|
|
7-Dec
|
New York – Portland
|
2.45
|
3.5
|
93:84
|
20.47
|
40
|
85
|
47.1
|
68.2
|
|
6-Dec
|
Sacramento – Miami
|
2.05
|
1.5
|
102:115
|
19.56
|
39
|
84
|
46.4
|
65.2
|
|
6-Dec
|
Milwaukee – Cleveland
|
3.35
|
6.5
|
86:101
|
20.56
|
39
|
83
|
47.0
|
68.5
|
|
5-Dec
|
Golden State – Orlando
|
4.75
|
9
|
118:126
|
21.56
|
39
|
82
|
47.6
|
71.9
|
|
5-Dec
|
Minnesota – Utah
|
3.65
|
7.5
|
108:101
|
20.65
|
38
|
81
|
46.9
|
68.8
|
|
4-Dec
|
New Jersey – Charlotte
|
2.35
|
3.5
|
97:91
|
19.74
|
37
|
80
|
46.3
|
65.8
|
|
4-Dec
|
Memphis – Dallas
|
3.2
|
5.5
|
98:82
|
18.83
|
36
|
79
|
45.6
|
62.8
|
|
4-Dec
|
Oklahoma – Boston
|
2.65
|
4.5
|
87:105
|
17.92
|
35
|
78
|
44.9
|
59.7
|
|
3-Dec
|
Golden State – Houston
|
2.05
|
1.5
|
109:111
|
18.92
|
35
|
77
|
45.5
|
63.1
|
|
2-Dec
|
LA Clippers – Houston
|
2.1
|
2
|
85:102
|
19.92
|
35
|
76
|
46.1
|
66.4
|
|
2-Dec
|
Minnesota – Memphis
|
2.35
|
3
|
95:97
|
20.92
|
35
|
75
|
46.7
|
69.7
|
|
2-Dec
|
New Jersey – Dallas
|
3.5
|
7
|
101:117
|
20.01
|
34
|
74
|
45.9
|
66.7
|
|
1-Dec
|
New York – Phoenix
|
3.6
|
7
|
126:99
|
21.01
|
34
|
73
|
46.6
|
70.0
|
|
1-Dec
|
Charlotte – Boston
|
2.55
|
4
|
90:108
|
20.1
|
33
|
72
|
45.8
|
67.0
|
|
29-Nov
|
New York – Orlando
|
3.1
|
6
|
102:114
|
21.1
|
33
|
71
|
46.5
|
70.3
|
|
29-Nov
|
Miami – Boston
|
2.55
|
4
|
85:92
|
22.1
|
33
|
70
|
47.1
|
73.7
|
|
29-Nov
|
Toronto – Phoenix
|
2.25
|
3
|
94:113
|
23.1
|
33
|
69
|
47.8
|
77.0
|
|
29-Nov
|
Detroit – Atlanta
|
3.2
|
6
|
94:88
|
24.1
|
33
|
68
|
48.5
|
80.3
|
|
28-Nov
|
Milwaukee – Orlando
|
3.3
|
6.5
|
98:100
|
23.19
|
32
|
67
|
47.8
|
77.3
|
|
28-Nov
|
Golden State – LA Lakers
|
4.75
|
9
|
97:130
|
22.28
|
31
|
66
|
47.0
|
74.3
|
|
27-Nov
|
Minnesota – Phoenix
|
5.25
|
9.5
|
95:120
|
23.28
|
31
|
65
|
47.7
|
77.6
|
|
27-Nov
|
Indiana – Dallas
|
2.25
|
3
|
92:113
|
24.28
|
31
|
64
|
48.4
|
80.9
|
|
27-Nov
|
Houston – San Antonio
|
2
|
1
|
84:92
|
25.28
|
31
|
63
|
49.2
|
84.3
|
|
27-Nov
|
Charlotte – Cleveland
|
2.8
|
5
|
94:87
|
26.28
|
31
|
62
|
50.0
|
87.6
|
|
27-Nov
|
Philadelphia – Atlanta
|
2.8
|
5
|
86:100
|
25.39
|
30
|
61
|
49.2
|
84.6
|
|
25-Nov
|
Minnesota – Denver
|
4.25
|
8.5
|
111:124
|
26.39
|
30
|
60
|
50.0
|
88.0
|
|
25-Nov
|
Detroit – Cleveland
|
2.85
|
5
|
88:98
|
27.39
|
30
|
59
|
50.8
|
91.3
|
|
22-Nov
|
Toronto O1 – Orlando U1
|
2.35
|
3.5
|
96:104
|
28.39
|
30
|
58
|
51.7
|
94.6
|
|
22-Nov
|
New York U2 – Boston U2
|
5.5
|
10
|
105:107
|
29.39
|
30
|
57
|
52.6
|
98.0
|
|
21-Nov
|
New Orleans O1 – Atlanta O4
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
96:88
|
28.48
|
29
|
56
|
51.8
|
94.9
|
|
20-Nov
|
LA Clippers U1 – Denver O1
|
4.75
|
9
|
106:99
|
27.57
|
28
|
55
|
50.9
|
91.9
|
|
20-Nov
|
Golden State U1 – Portland U1
|
4
|
8
|
108:94
|
26.66
|
27
|
54
|
50.0
|
88.9
|
|
20-Nov
|
Indiana U2 – Cleveland O5
|
2.75
|
5
|
95:105
|
25.75
|
26
|
53
|
49.1
|
85.8
|
|
19-Nov
|
New Orleans – Phoenix
|
3.75
|
8
|
110:103
|
26.75
|
26
|
52
|
50.0
|
89.2
|
|
18-Nov
|
Minnesota – Houston
|
3.05
|
5.5
|
84:97
|
25.84
|
25
|
51
|
49.0
|
86.1
|
|
18-Nov
|
Washington – Cleveland
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
108:91
|
26.84
|
25
|
50
|
50.0
|
89.5
|
|
17-Nov
|
Sacramento – Chicago
|
2.25
|
3
|
87:101
|
25.93
|
24
|
49
|
49.0
|
86.4
|
|
17-Nov
|
New Orleans – LA Clippers
|
2.05
|
2
|
110:102
|
26.93
|
24
|
48
|
50.0
|
89.8
|
|
17-Nov
|
New Jersey – Indiana
|
2.65
|
4.5
|
83:91
|
26.02
|
23
|
47
|
48.9
|
86.7
|
|
15-Nov
|
Detroit – Dallas
|
2.7
|
5
|
90:95
|
27.02
|
23
|
46
|
50.0
|
90.1
|
|
14-Nov
|
Charlotte – Portland
|
2.3
|
3
|
74:80
|
27.02
|
22
|
45
|
48.9
|
90.1
|
|
14-Nov
|
Indiana – Boston
|
3.5
|
7
|
113:109
|
28.02
|
22
|
44
|
50.0
|
93.4
|
|
13-Nov
|
LA Clippers – toronto
|
2.45
|
3.5
|
89:104
|
27.11
|
21
|
43
|
48.8
|
90.4
|
|
13-Nov
|
Sacramento – Houston
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
109:100
|
28.11
|
21
|
42
|
50.0
|
93.7
|
|
13-Nov
|
New Orleans – portland
|
2.3
|
3
|
78:86
|
27.2
|
20
|
41
|
48.8
|
90.7
|
|
13-Nov
|
minnesota – Dallas
|
6.5
|
11
|
77:89
|
28.2
|
20
|
40
|
50.0
|
94.0
|
|
11-Nov
|
San Antonio – Dallas
|
2.05
|
1.5
|
92:83
|
29.2
|
20
|
39
|
51.3
|
97.3
|
|
11-Nov
|
Milwaukee – Denver
|
2.5
|
3.5
|
108:102
|
28.29
|
19
|
38
|
50.0
|
94.3
|
|
11-Nov
|
Minnesota – Portland
|
4
|
8
|
84:107
|
27.38
|
18
|
37
|
48.6
|
91.3
|
|
11-Nov
|
New York – Atlanta
|
2.95
|
5.5
|
101:114
|
28.38
|
18
|
36
|
50.0
|
94.6
|
|
10-Nov
|
Sacramento – Oklahoma
|
2.15
|
2
|
101:98
|
29.38
|
18
|
35
|
51.4
|
97.9
|
|
10-Nov
|
Memphis – Portland
|
3.15
|
6.5
|
79:93
|
28.47
|
17
|
34
|
50.0
|
94.9
|
|
10-Nov
|
Chicago – Denver
|
2.3
|
3
|
89:90
|
29.47
|
17
|
33
|
51.5
|
98.2
|
|
10-Nov
|
Charlotte – Orlando
|
2.45
|
3.5
|
81:93
|
28.56
|
16
|
32
|
50.0
|
95.2
|
|
9-Nov
|
LA Clippers – New Orleans
|
2.15
|
2
|
84:112
|
29.56
|
16
|
31
|
51.6
|
98.5
|
|
9-Nov
|
New York – Utah
|
3
|
6
|
93:95
|
30.56
|
16
|
30
|
53.3
|
101.9
|
|
9-Nov
|
Philadelphia – Phoenix
|
2.15
|
2
|
115:119
|
29.65
|
15
|
29
|
51.7
|
98.8
|
|
8-Nov
|
Sacramento – Golden State
|
2.4
|
3.5
|
120:107
|
30.65
|
15
|
28
|
53.6
|
102.2
|
|
8-Nov
|
Oklahoma – Orlando
|
3.15
|
6
|
102:74
|
29.74
|
14
|
27
|
51.9
|
99.1
|
|
8-Nov
|
Washington – Phoenix
|
2.15
|
2
|
90:102
|
28.83
|
13
|
26
|
50.0
|
96.1
|
|
7-Nov
|
New Jersey – Boston
|
12
|
14
|
76:86
|
29.83
|
13
|
25
|
52.0
|
99.4
|
|
6-Nov
|
New York – Cleveland
|
4.25
|
8
|
91:100
|
28.92
|
12
|
24
|
50.0
|
96.4
|
|
6-Nov
|
Charlotte – Atlanta
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
103:83
|
29.92
|
12
|
23
|
52.2
|
99.7
|
|
4-Nov
|
Sacramento – Atlanta
|
2.9
|
5.5
|
105:113
|
29.01
|
11
|
22
|
50.0
|
96.7
|
|
4-Nov
|
Houston – LA Lakers
|
2.1
|
2
|
102:103
|
30.01
|
11
|
21
|
52.4
|
100.0
|
|
4-Nov
|
Minnesota – Boston
|
7.5
|
12
|
90:92
|
29.1
|
10
|
20
|
50.0
|
97.0
|
|
4-Nov
|
New Jersey – Denver
|
4.75
|
9
|
94:122
|
28.19
|
9
|
19
|
47.4
|
94.0
|
|
3-Nov
|
Oklahoma – LA Lakers
|
3.65
|
7.5
|
98:101
|
29.19
|
9
|
18
|
50.0
|
97.3
|
|
3-Nov
|
Detroit – Orlando
|
3.35
|
6.5
|
85:80
|
28.28
|
8
|
17
|
47.1
|
94.3
|
|
3-Nov
|
Philadelphia – Boston
|
3.6
|
7
|
74:105
|
27.37
|
7
|
16
|
43.8
|
91.2
|
|
3-Nov
|
Indiana – Denver
|
2.9
|
5.5
|
93:111
|
28.37
|
7
|
15
|
46.7
|
94.6
|
|
2-Nov
|
New York – New Orleans
|
2.25
|
2.5
|
117:111
|
29.37
|
7
|
14
|
50.0
|
97.9
|
|
1-Nov
|
Oklahoma – Portland
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
74:83
|
28.46
|
6
|
13
|
46.2
|
94.9
|
|
1-Nov
|
Toronto -
|