Sports Betting Blog

06.11.2009

My girlfriend has talent :)

Filed under: Betting — admin @ 16:34

The heading is correct, no doubt at it. Believe it or not she got 4 perfect bets in a row. The system is clear. Every day, I ask her about a match, which I chose randomly and she give me the exact score. Until now she has two perfect scores and two right guesses of match winner.

The matches are Inter – Dinamo Kiev 2:2 (exact score); Milan – Real Madrid 1:1 (exact score); Dinamo Kiev – Inter 1:2 (she guessed 0:2) and Hamburger – Celtic 0:0 (she guessed 1:1). For today I asked her about Leverkusen – Frankfurt match and she predicted 1:0. Let see what will happen.

The story is going bigger and bigger. A friend of mine doesn’t believe me and challenged her to a big contest. They will both predict this weekend matches from England Premier League and we will see who is better – he or she :) I definitely bet all my money for her.

The story will continue tomorrow.

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03.11.2009

Hotmatches is back, but…

Filed under: Betting — admin @ 13:34

OK, my method of making picks is ready to be used again, but I have several marks here. First of all I have made some filters to sort out which match will be used and which wouldn’t. However, those filters are not ready yet. They will be after a mount and then hotmatches will be 100% sure way of betting.

The other thing which is different is that I have change the percentage of every bet. I will use small bank now, just to try the system before all filters are ready, so my bet will be 10% of the bank.

I know it is too much, but we will see.

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27.10.2009

Hotmatches is coming soon

Filed under: Betting — admin @ 6:43

The last month I spent making my new database. As I expected this new version give 100% different results than the first one. The reason for that is simple: betexplorer changed the number of bookies they use for making average odds.

However, my new database is almost ready and soon I will start making my picks again in hotmaches page. I am sure thay will be better even compared with my picks six monts ago because when the previous database failed I found out some really good hints to improve the results, which I will use again.

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13.10.2009

New database

Filed under: Betting — admin @ 7:15

Finally, I found why betsurf hot matches doesn’t work recently

29.09.2009

Big guns win 70% of matches in Premiership

Filed under: Betting,Football — admin @ 20:02

I was really surprised today when I checked the results from first seven rounds in English Premier League. It is really huge result and I am very dissapointed that I missed that profit.

69.7% of matches finished with wins for the favorites, 6.06% with draw and just 24.24% finished with win for the underdogs.

Now the question is will those result happen again in the next few rounds and the tendency will continue or we will see more underdogs wins? The other thing that a punter must think about is just 4 draws in 66 matches so far. What will happen with next matches?

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10.09.2009

A perfect example why we should avoid Martingale

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , — admin @ 12:09

I made a research inspired by a betting forum article for using martingale with big favorites. The idea is simple you take 5 big guns and bet for them using martingale. I switch the research using another method, but with the same idea.
I bet on every favorite below 1.5 coefficient and using my soccer database to make selection. Where the odds shown by my database are higher than those given by the bookies I bet on this match.
The only condition is in the section of the database which I will use to have at least 20 games.
When two or more matches are being played at the same time I will bet on the first on the table in today

31.08.2009

Kimi gave profit too!

Filed under: Betting,Formula One — admin @ 11:48

I am really pleased with that. I started betting on him in the middle of May and now I’ve won. Even better almost no one believed he could win this week and the odds were higher than I expected.

So I get that money and no more bets on F1 for this season.

May be I will start next year or WRC for Kimi again, who knows?

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10.08.2009

Under-over researching results after 66 games

Filed under: Basketball,Betting — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 8:13

What is going on with my research about betting on under or over in Basketball? Nothing so special, I would say, and the reason for that is the fact that the ROI has dropped from 17% to just four percents. However, there is good news and this is Gauss method for least square approximation. This is the most profitable method. Yes, with just four percents ROI, but it is a start. May be the way that the data is being collected is wrong, or maybe 4% is not so small profit. We will see.

Here are the results:

Under-over percentages from previous matches give 95.5 ROI
Under-over percentages from previous special matches give 101.3 ROI
Gauss method with data collected from last 10 matches for every team give 104 ROI
Gauss method with data collected from last 10 mutual games give 98.39 ROI
Average score made by teams in last 10 games for every team give 101.29 ROI
Average score made by teams in last 10 mutual games give 89.71 ROI

The last row is really a surprise for me. How is it possible the average for mutual games to be the worst result? Really strange, but a fact.

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03.08.2009

Should we start betting under on WNBA matches?

Filed under: Basketball,Betting — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 14:14

I am asking myself this question right now and the reason is simple. If you take a look at the table below you will see that the gap between matches finished over and under has never been so huge like right now. As far as I remember some previous seasons in NBA and WNBA the bookies are trying to hold the percentages 50-50 between unders and overs.

Would it be the same way this year? I do not know, but I will try it.

Here is the table:

Teams
U
O
Atlanta
35
65
Chicago
30
70
Connecticut
58
42
Detroit
47
53
Indiana
37
63
Los Angeles
69
31
Minnesota
40
60
New York
44
56
Phoenix
32
68
Sacramento
45
55
San Antonio
37
63
Seattle
59
41
Washington
44
56

If we speak in general all under finished games are 43.6% and over finished games are, well here the math is easy ?

So, if those numbers above must go to 50-50 percent there is clear profit. I will try it. Crossing fingers.

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01.08.2009

Football matches with coefficient more than 2.2. The results for July from 246 matches

Filed under: Betting,Football — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 16:31

I am getting a bit lazy these days with just following WNBA Under

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