Few days ago I wanted to post about my previous sequence of 100 soccer hotmatches, where I got only 86% of ROI. The post would be with some stats and analysis why those bad results happened. However, the sequence now shows incredible results of 188% ROI, so I decided to write about the soccer database, which makes this result possible. I am pretty sure such a database is unique and I am also sure it can be profitable.
There is something I am not sure about and this is: Do I use that database correctly? I think that if a punter better than me take a look in it he or she will find some better way to bet.
OK, first of all few words about how I make it. You can easily see that the database is divided with sectors. Few of them represent the coefficient for the favorites and few of them shows some strange sectors. F.e. here is a part from the database:
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
|
2.06 – 2,1
|
0,2351 – 0,2400
|
31
|
35.5
|
25.8
|
38.7
|
|
2,06 – 2,1
|
0,2401 – 0,2450
|
119
|
48.7
|
30.3
|
21.0
|
|
2,06 – 2,1
|
0,2451 – 0,2500
|
119
|
38.7
|
28.6
|
32.8
|
|
2,06 – 2,1
|
0,2501 – 0,2550
|
27
|
55.6
|
22.2
|
22.2
|
You see that here the odds for the favorite are between 2.06 and 2.1. All of the coefficients are taken by betexplorer.com. The part with the coefficients is clear. How I get the next column. The formula is pretty easy and here is it:
R=A/(A+B+C) where R is the result, A is the coefficient for the favorite, B is the draw coefficient and C is the coefficient for the underdog.
This result in my database is followed by the number of matches I have already checked and three columns for the percentages. I have to say something really important. The first column from those three does not shows home win percentage, it shows the percentages for win of the favorite. The second column shows draws percentage and the third one the percentages for underdog’s win.
Every morning I take an excel sheet, open my browser, copy and paste the matches and the odds and placed every match in the particular field of the database. When the match is over I update the database with the result. That’s it.