I am going to bet under on next five Phoenix games with martingale. I know it is a bit dangerous and I can lose all my bank, but I’ve got some reasons. From the beginning of WNBA Phoenix played 8 matches and all of them are over.
The longest strike of over I know about was New York’s last season with 12 overs in a row.
I think Phoenix will make at least one under in the next few games. So, crossing fingers.
%%awsomnews1%%
As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.
I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right
I found something that really hit me in the head. I started a paper sheet project a few weeks ago. Short explanation: the project is something about soccer betting on all favorites where the odds for them are over 2.2. What a big surprise came when I saw the first 60 games with more than 50% wins for the favorites. Here are the games:
|
1
|
Jap. Cup
|
Niigata – Yokohama
|
1
|
0:3
|
0
|
0
|
|
2
|
Jap. Cup
|
Kashiva – Kobe
|
1
|
3:0
|
1
|
50
|
|
3
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Yokohama – Fukuoka
|
1
|
0:1
|
1
|
33.33
|
|
4
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Gifu – Mito
|
2
|
1:1
|
1
|
25
|
|
5
|
World Cup
|
Costa Rika – USA
|
1
|
3:1
|
2
|
40
|
|
6
|
Bra.
|
Santo Andres – Santos
|
2
|
3:3
|
2
|
33.33
|
|
7
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Jastrzebie – Katowice
|
1
|
0:1
|
2
|
28.57
|
|
8
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Swinoujscie – Zaglebie
|
1
|
2:3
|
2
|
25
|
|
9
|
World Cup
|
North Korea – Iran
|
2
|
0:0
|
2
|
22.22
|
|
10
|
World Cup
|
Malawi – Burkina Faso
|
1
|
0:1
|
2
|
20
|
|
11
|
Cze. 2nd
|
Sparta Prague B – Dukla
|
1
|
1:0
|
3
|
27.27
|
|
12
|
World Cup
|
Gabon – Togo
|
1
|
3:0
|
4
|
33.33
|
|
13
|
World Cup
|
Macedonia – Norway
|
2
|
0:0
|
4
|
30.77
|
|
14
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Ancona – Rimini
|
1
|
1:1
|
4
|
28.57
|
|
15
|
World Cup
|
Lithuania – Romania
|
2
|
0:1
|
5
|
33.33
|
|
16
|
World Cup
|
Cyprus – Montenegro
|
1
|
2:2
|
5
|
31.25
|
|
17
|
World Cup
|
Uruguay – Brazil
|
2
|
0:4
|
6
|
35.29
|
|
18
|
World Cup
|
Trinidad & Tobago – Costa Rica
|
2
|
2:3
|
7
|
38.89
|
|
19
|
MLS
|
Kansas City – Columbus
|
1
|
0:2
|
7
|
36.84
|
|
20
|
Jap. Cup
|
Yamagata – Kashiwa
|
1
|
1:1
|
7
|
35
|
|
21
|
Jap. Cup
|
Kobe – Shimizu
|
2
|
1:2
|
8
|
38.1
|
|
22
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Toyama Kataller – Verdy
|
2
|
0:3
|
9
|
40.91
|
|
23
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Fukuoka – Kusatsu
|
1
|
1:2
|
9
|
39.13
|
|
24
|
Euro U21
|
Kazakhstan 21 – Montenegro 21
|
1
|
0:2
|
9
|
37.5
|
|
25
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Ljungskile – Norrk?ping
|
1
|
2:2
|
9
|
36
|
|
26
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Tromsdalen – H?nefoss
|
2
|
0:1
|
10
|
38.46
|
|
27
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Alta – Sarpsborg
|
1
|
3:0
|
11
|
40.74
|
|
28
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Stavanger IF – Bryne
|
2
|
0:2
|
12
|
42.86
|
|
29
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Eibar – Girona
|
2
|
2:2
|
12
|
41.38
|
|
30
|
Bra.
|
Sport Recife – Flamengo
|
1
|
4:2
|
13
|
43.33
|
|
31
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Grosseto – Livorno
|
1
|
2:0
|
14
|
45.16
|
|
32
|
World Cup
|
Mali – Ghana
|
1
|
0:2
|
14
|
43.75
|
|
33
|
World Cup
|
Algeria – Egypt
|
2
|
3:1
|
14
|
42.42
|
|
34
|
World Cup
|
Peru – Ecuador
|
2
|
1:2
|
15
|
44.12
|
|
35
|
Bra.
|
Fluminense – Botafogo
|
1
|
1:0
|
16
|
45.71
|
|
36
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Trollh?ttan FC – Angelholms
|
2
|
1:2
|
17
|
47.22
|
|
37
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Syrianska FC – Sundsvall
|
1
|
1:2
|
17
|
45.95
|
|
38
|
Lit.
|
Kruoja Pakruojis – Siauliai
|
2
|
0:5
|
18
|
47.37
|
|
39
|
Dan. 2nd
|
AB Copenhagen – Herfolge
|
1
|
0:4
|
18
|
46.15
|
|
40
|
Rom.
|
FC Brasov – FC Timisoara
|
2
|
1:0
|
18
|
45
|
|
41
|
Rom.
|
CS Otopeni – Farul
|
1
|
6:0
|
19
|
46.34
|
|
42
|
Rom.
|
G. Buzau – G. Bistrita
|
2
|
2:1
|
19
|
45.24
|
|
43
|
Rom.
|
Unirea – Steaua Bucharest
|
2
|
1:1
|
19
|
44.19
|
|
44
|
World Cup
|
Ecuador – Argentina
|
2
|
2:0
|
19
|
43.18
|
|
45
|
World Cup
|
Venezuela – Uruguay
|
2
|
2:2
|
19
|
42.22
|
|
46
|
Lat.
|
Daugava Riga – Tranzits Ventspils
|
1
|
2:0
|
20
|
43.48
|
|
47
|
Swe. 2nd
|
J?nk?pings – Mj?llby
|
2
|
0:3
|
21
|
44.68
|
|
48
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Brescia – Empoli
|
1
|
3:0
|
22
|
45.83
|
|
49
|
Bul.
|
Slavia Sofia – Lok. Sofia
|
2
|
2:2
|
22
|
44.9
|
|
50
|
Bul.
|
Spartak Varna – Litex Lovech
|
2
|
0:4
|
23
|
46
|
|
51
|
Ice.
|
Fjolnir – Fylkir
|
2
|
1:3
|
24
|
47.06
|
|
52
|
Nor. 2nd
|
H?nefoss – Ham-Kam
|
1
|
1:1
|
24
|
46.15
|
|
53
|
Ire. Cup
|
Tralee Dynamos – Salthill Devon
|
1
|
2:1
|
25
|
47.17
|
|
54
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Murcia – Salamanca
|
1
|
2:1
|
26
|
48.15
|
|
55
|
Rom. Cup
|
CFR Cluj – FC Timisoara
|
1
|
3:0
|
27
|
49.09
|
|
56
|
Bra.
|
Botafogo – Santos
|
1
|
2:0
|
28
|
50
|
|
57
|
MLS
|
DC United – Chicago
|
1
|
2:1
|
29
|
50.88
|
|
58
|
MLS
|
Kansas City – New England
|
1
|
3:1
|
30
|
51.72
|
|
59
|
MLS
|
Dallas – Houston
|
2
|
1:3
|
31
|
52.54
|
|
60
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Tochigi SC – Tosu
|
2
|
0:5
|
32
|
53.33
|
%%awsomnews1%%
In my last post I wrote about my research on soccer betting and my soccer database. It wasn’t good enough, but there is profit. I found out that I made a mistake with the way of betting and not with the games I picked.
So, if I’d bet on single for the underdogs, instead of doubles with draw, I would have 35 winners and ROI of 118.63% with 1% of the bank, used for every bet.
Of course this result is only from 100 matches. I will continue with searching.
%%awsomnews1%%
A few weeks ago I started a research using my soccer database. Until now I’ve used it only to find profit on favorites and there was some success. Betting on underdogs could be profitable too, but the punter must use the correct betting system and money management.
For my research I bet on 100 matches using doubles (draw and back the underdog) and only draws, using 3% on the bank on every bet. As a conclusion I can say that the draw betting was a mistake, I lost everything on the half way. The double betting was a bit better, but again with bad result. The ROI is about 80%. In the beginning the results were great and there was near 30% profit, but then the results got worse.
However, there is profit because 30+ of those games, predicted by my database as profitable when betting on underdogs finished with win for the underdogs. Most of the odds are high above 3, which will give good profit. I will check this later and I will try again.
Here is the table with matches:
|
Date
|
Campionship
|
Match
|
0.5
|
X K.
|
0.5 K.
|
Res.
|
X Bank
|
0.5 Bank
|
X +
|
0.5 +
|
No
|
X + %
|
0.5 + %
|
X ROI
|
0.5 ROI
|
|
6.06
|
MLS
|
Salt Lake – Colorado
|
X2
|
1.7
|
1:1
|
23.45
|
56
|
100
|
0.00
|
56.00
|
0.00
|
78.17
|
|||
|
6.06
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Albacete – Murcia
|
X2
|
1.58
|
0:0
|
22.75
|
55
|
99
|
0.00
|
55.56
|
0.00
|
75.83
|
|||
|
6.06
|
World Cup
|
Macedonia – Norway
|
1X
|
1.55
|
0:0
|
22.17
|
54
|
98
|
0.00
|
55.10
|
0.00
|
73.90
|
|||
|
5.06
|
MLS
|
Chicago – Houston
|
X2
|
1.6
|
0:1
|
21.62
|
53
|
97
|
0.00
|
54.64
|
0.00
|
72.07
|
|||
|
5.06
|
Ire.
|
Galway – Drogheda
|
X2
|
1.6
|
1:1
|
20.62
|
52
|
96
|
0.00
|
54.17
|
0.00
|
68.73
|
|||
|
5.06
|
Ire.
|
Sligo – Derry City
|
1
Comments Off
04.06.2009Mathematics and bettingRecently I’ve been reading a post in punterslounge forum about a football rating system. The posts there are really fascinating and throw me in deep thinking about maths and how we use it. However, I have read only 3 pages until now, because I have other stuff to do, but the post helped me with some fresh ideas, which I am going to give a try. I was really impressed with how we can use the idea of Gauss about Least Squares Approximations . Right now I have put all other betting stuff aside and just read about this method. I hope it will help me improve my results, which are quite bad these days. %%awsomnews1%%
Comments Off
01.06.2009Searching for patterns. Finnish 1st leagueI am staring at the numbers in the last two days with hope to find something that will give a clue about profitable betting. You know I hope to find some pattern which will lead me to profit in Finnish 1st league. I use results from past years and compare them to this one. I got some good guess on betting for the favorite with coefficients between 2.01 and 2.2, but unfortunately the first bet was unsuccessful
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29.05.2009A new way of betting – Finnish 1st leagueFirst of all I want to say that I know this is really strange method of betting, but it is fun. As I wrote two days ago, my idea is to check for patterns and to find some deviations. For example I can show you my post Powered by WordPress |
