Sports Betting Blog

22.06.2009

Would we bet on French League 1?

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 9:49

As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.

I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right – betting on French Ligue 1 is nonsense.

In the table below are all stats for this niche. I will start searching for another one, which gave small amount of profit – to bet in the league for the favorites with odds higher than 2.2. This gave profit of 110% last season. It is interesting if those result would be something regular or they are not.

1.71 – 2
FW
Draw
UW
FW
Draw
UW
2008/2009
40
31
13
47.62
36.90
15.48
2007/2008
54
35
19
50.00
32.41
17.59
2006/2007
56
24
19
56.57
24.24
19.19
2005/2006
43
32
19
45.74
34.04
20.21
2004/2005
49
29
15
52.69
31.18
16.13
2003/2004
58
32
14
55.77
30.77
13.46
2002/2003
56
20
30
52.83
18.87
28.30

15.05.2009

DNB and Hotmatches!

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 16:11

A month ago I thought Betsurf Hot Matches as small profitable, but secure way of betting. From the beginning of April till now the results are jumping like crazy animals – they jump high to the sky and fall down to the ground. I really can not understand what is happening, but it is 100% sure that my bank account will feel it.

I made a quick research about the last four sequences of 100 hot matches to find out that the draws is not helping me at all. Here are the stats. Last sequence 37 wins, 37 draws and 27 losers and ROI of 40.2%, if I have played it with DNB the ROI would be around 100. In the sequence before it, I had ROI of 188.8% with 61 winners, 25 draws and 21 losers only. The ROI would be much higher in DNB. The results in the previous two sequences are 42 winners, 33 draws and 27 losers with ROI of 88% and 47 winners 25 draws and 29 losers and 105.8 ROI.

The last one is the only one with more losers than draws. This fact is giving me hope that DNB would be more profitable.

11.05.2009

To make profit from soccer draws

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , — admin @ 9:46

I really think that I found something interesting for betting on draw games, using my soccer database. It is a funny story, because I searched for something else, which happened to be completely wrong, but at the end it was a happy end. Here is the story.

Until now, I use my soccer database searching for profit on betting for favorites. You can see the result in my section soccer hotmatches. The system is simple. When, I find a match where the odds for the favorite are better than the percents in my soccer database I bet on that team.

Yesterday, I decided to turn the page and to start searching for some profit betting on underdogs, using the same system. I checked the first eleven days of April and I found about 50 matches, then I checked the results. The ROI of betting on underdogs was really poor. Just 71%, but the draws in those matches was profitable.19 draws from 49 matches and 122.1% ROI.

I was even more amazed when I checked the results from yesterday. I found 11 matches that the soccer database shows as profitable underdogs and from those 11 matches – 5 were draw. Really good result, I think.

I will check tonight the last days of April with hope that this is really something and if it is, than … who knows. Bellow are the matches and after the table I wrote something for today’s matches.

Here are the matches from 1st to 11th of April.

1.4
WC Qual. Europe
Georgia – Montenegro
2
2.73
0:0
3.18
1.4
WC Quaf. N+C America
Costa Rica – Salvador
2
7.62
1:0
2.4
Eng. Conference
Wrexam – Barrow
2
4.71
1:1
3.46
4.4
Aus.
Altach – Reed
2
2.3
1:1
3.18
4.4
Bel. 2nd
OC Charleroi – Deinze
2
3.5
0:1
5.4
Bra. Paulista
Sao Caetano – Sao Paolo
1
3.57
2:2
3.23
5.4
Bra. Paulista
Ituano – Marilla
2
3.87
2:1
5.4
Cze. 2nd
Hradec – Most
2
3.2
2:0
5.4
Gre.
Thrasivoulos – Iraklis
1
3.38
1:1
2.97
5.4
Ita.
Cagliari – Catania
2
4.08
1:0
5.4
Neth.
Vitesse – De Graafschap
2
4.84
0:0
3.49
5.4
Nor.
Sanderfiord – Fredrikstad
2
2.63
1:1
3.27
5.4
Por.
Amadora – Benfica
1
4.89
1:2
5.4
Rus.
Lokomotiv M – Samara
2
4.11
2:1
6.4
Fra. 2nd
Amiens – Lans
1
3.09
0:0
2.86
6.4
Swi. 2nd
Winterthur – Lugano
1
3.73
2:2
3.31
7.4
Eng. League Two
Darligton – Wycombe
2
2.62
1:2
7.4
Rom.
G. Bistrita – Farul
2
4.65
1:0
7.4
Rom.
Pandurii – Steaua
1
3.06
2:0
8.4
Champions League
Liverpool – Chelsea
2
3.45
1:3
8.4
Copa Libertadores
Estudiantes – Cruzeiro
2
3.58
4:0
8.4
Serb.
Napredak – Habitfarm
2
3.05
0:0
3.05
8.4
Svk. 2nd
Prievidza – Inter Bratislava
2
3.15
2:2
2.98
8.4
Svk. 2nd
Sala – Podbrezova
1
3.05
-
9.4
Eng. Conference
Ebbsfleet – Kidderminster
1
2.61
1:1
3.22
9.4
Swi. 2nd
Thun – Wohlen
2
3.53
1:2
9.4
Swi. 2nd
Yverdon – Winterthur
2
3.71
0:4
10.4
Aus.
Mattersburg – Altach
2
3.2
5:4
10.4
Fra. 2nd
Brest – Dijon
2
3.36
1:2
11.4
Arg.
Godoy – Gimnasia
2
3.78
2:2
3.26
11.4
Bel. 2nd
Waasland – FC Liege
2
3.61
2:1
11.4
Bel. 2nd
Ronse – St.Truiden
1
3.59
1:5
11.4
Cro.
NK Zagreb – Osijek
2
2.99
1:0
11.4
Cyp.
AEL Limassol – Omonia
1
4.81
2:3
11.4
Eng. League One
Walsall – Tranmere
1
2.73
-
11.4
Eng. League One
Barnet – Bournemouth
2
2.72
1:0
11.4
Eng. Conference
Mansfield – Barrow
2
3.81
2:2
3.36
11.4
Fra.
Auxerre – Bordeaux
1
3.31
0:2
11.4
Jap. 2nd
Kofu – Kusatso
2
3.72
1:0
11.4
North. Ire.
Crusaders – Distillery
2
3
1:1
3.2
11.4
North. Ire.
Newry Town – Dungannon
2
3
2:2
3.2
11.4
Pol. 2nd
Swinoujscie – Podbeskidzie
2
2.64
2:0
11.4
Rom.
FC Timisoara – U. Craiova
1
3.65
1:0
11.4
Rus.
Kuban – Tomsk
2
3.41
0:0
2.9
11.4
Serb.
Habitfarm – Cukaricki
2
4.77
2:0
11.4
Slo.
Interblock – Gorica
2
2.96
1:2
11.4
Spa. 2nd
Eibar – Real Sociedad
1
3.03
1:1
2.9
11.4
Spa. 2nd
Castellon – Zaragosa
1
2.88
1:1
2.92
11.4
Swi. 2nd
Concordia – Nyonnais
2
3.56
2:1
11.4
Swi. 2nd
Biel – Lugano
1
3.69
0:3
11.4
Tur.
Bursaspor – Ankaragucu
2
2.82
2:0
11.4
Ukr.
Tavria – Kryvbas
2
4.95
0:1

Here the matches from yesterday:

10.5
Por.
Porto – Nacional
Х
4.16
1:0
10.5
Arg.
Rosario – Newell’s Old Boys
Х
3.16
1:1
10.5
Pol. 2nd
Plock – Swinoujscie
Х
3.16
1:2
10.5
Rom.
Unirea – CFR Cluj
Х
3.01
1:1
10.5
Tur.  
Kayserispor – Gaziantepspor
Х
3.08
3:0
10.5
Fin. 2nd
Kiisto Vaasa – KPV
Х
3.23
0:1
10.5
Por. 2nd
Varzim – Estoril
Х
3.17
0:3
10.5
Cze. 2nd
Most – Dukla
Х
2.94
1:0
10.5
Neth.
Nijmegen – Sparta
Х
3.52
1:1
10.5
Neth.
De Graafschap – Volendam
Х
3.27
2:2
10.5
Dan.
Sonderjyske – Vejle
Х
3.25
0:0

Of course, I checked today’s matches, only to find out that there is only one game that fits. This is the match from Italian Serie B between Treviso and Vicenza. Crossing fingers.

Powered by WordPress