Sports Betting Blog

25.06.2009

Shouldn’t we bet on French League?

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 16:45

Is there something special in French League 1. I found an article in another blog that we shouldn’t bet there because there are too many surprises. I must say there are not more surprises than every other league in the world. I’ve already posted about draws in games where the favorite has coefficient between 1.71 and 2, because that margin gave some profit last year.

I also checked the big derbies where the favorite has odds higher than 2.21, because last year there was profit there too, but the results weren’t good at all. There is no profit in French league if you bet all games with particular odds. The results are exactly the same as everywhere. The results will return around 85-90% of your investments.

However, no more talks. Here is the table with stats. I hope somebody to find something I have missed.

2.21 +
FW
Draw
UW
FW
Draw
UW
2008/2009
55
30
35
45.83
25.00
29.17
2007/2008
47
33
37
40.17
28.21
31.62
2006/2007
45
46
29
37.50
38.33
24.17
2005/2006
49
39
31
41.18
32.77
26.05
2004/2005
43
46
30
36.13
38.66
25.21

22.06.2009

Would we bet on French League 1?

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — admin @ 9:49

As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.

I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right – betting on French Ligue 1 is nonsense.

In the table below are all stats for this niche. I will start searching for another one, which gave small amount of profit – to bet in the league for the favorites with odds higher than 2.2. This gave profit of 110% last season. It is interesting if those result would be something regular or they are not.

1.71 – 2
FW
Draw
UW
FW
Draw
UW
2008/2009
40
31
13
47.62
36.90
15.48
2007/2008
54
35
19
50.00
32.41
17.59
2006/2007
56
24
19
56.57
24.24
19.19
2005/2006
43
32
19
45.74
34.04
20.21
2004/2005
49
29
15
52.69
31.18
16.13
2003/2004
58
32
14
55.77
30.77
13.46
2002/2003
56
20
30
52.83
18.87
28.30

19.06.2009

To bet on French League 1

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 15:52

Today I read an interesting post in Ed’s betting blog about a punter must not bet in French League 1. The reason Ed‘s giving is the fact that the teams are really close in terms of quality and the punter will have a really difficult job to find the winners or at least more difficult than other leagues. Well, he has something in mind and he is right about the quality of the teams. To have a round with 4 derby matches in the league is something quite normal. On the other hand in the 2008/2009 season there were only 26 games where the favorite had less than 1.4 odds for winning the match.

However, I found the post interesting and I decided to check the results from the last season to take a closer look, can a punter make profit from here. I use a really simple method. I have the odds for the favorite grouped in 5 groups – under 1.4, between 1.41 and 1.7; 1.71 – 2; 2.01 – 2.2 and above 2.21, then I look how the favorites finished the match – with win, they lost or the match finished with draw.

Here are the results from League 1 – season 2008/2009:

Fav. Odds
FW
Draw
UW
FW
Draw
UW
< 1.4
19
5
2
73.08
19.23
7.69
1.41 – 1.7
44
19
9
61.11
26.39
12.50
1.71 – 2
40
31
13
47.62
36.90
15.48
2.01 – 2.2
35
27
16
44.87
34.62
20.51
2.21 >
55
30
35
45.83
25.00
29.17

When I see that table my first impression is that Ed was not right. There were only two games where the big favorites, with odds under 1.4 lost their matches. 19 winners with the same odds are not enough at all, but the percent is normal, I think. There are two things that surprised me. First, it is the huge percent of wins, taken by favorites in derby matches – with odds higher than 2.21 – 45.83%. This is profit, well, not huge but it is profit. Second, I was surprised to see the draws in sector between 1.71 and 2 coefficient for the favorites. The percent there is 36.9 and here Ed is right. It is really tough to catch a winner, but it is pure profit to bet on draws. I am not sure about the previous seasons, but I will check it later. It will be fun it is correct. Even for martingale.

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