Sports Betting Blog

10.09.2009

A perfect example why we should avoid Martingale

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , — admin @ 12:09

I made a research inspired by a betting forum article for using martingale with big favorites. The idea is simple you take 5 big guns and bet for them using martingale. I switch the research using another method, but with the same idea.
I bet on every favorite below 1.5 coefficient and using my soccer database to make selection. Where the odds shown by my database are higher than those given by the bookies I bet on this match.
The only condition is in the section of the database which I will use to have at least 20 games.
When two or more matches are being played at the same time I will bet on the first on the table in today’s soccer match.
Sound really simple and it was, but martingale is really deadly method. I lost everything. However, it was just a paper trial and my money is still on the bank, luckily.
Here are the matches and the paper trial:

Date Championship Match Pred. Odds Res. Bet Sum Total
18-Aug Ire. Cup Bohemians – Dundalk 1 1.46 0:0 74.94 109.92 0
16-Aug Pol. Lech – Polonia 1 1.46 2:4 24.3 34.98 74.94
16-Aug Hun. Uipest – Lombard 1 1.3 0:3 8.6 10.68 99.24
16-Aug Wal. Leanelli – Airbus 1 1.24 2:2 2.08 2.08 109.92
15-Aug Bel. Anderlecht – Westerlo 1 1.25 3:0 2 2 112
15-Aug Ukr. Stal – Tavria 2 1.29 0:4 30.17 38.42 111.5
14-Aug Ita. Cup Parma – Novara 1 1.3 1:2 6.73 8.25 101.23
14-Aug Fin. Inter T – KuPS 1 1.33 2:3 1.52 1.52 109.48
12-Aug Eng. Carling Cup Nottingham – Bradford 1 1.47 3:0 3.38 4.47 111
9-Aug Ice. Keflavik – Breidablik 1 1.46 0:3 1.09 1.09 109.41
9-Aug Cze.   Slavia P – Bohemians 1 1.3 3:1 1.67 1.67 110.5
9-Aug Dan.   Sonderjyske – FC Copenhagen 2 1.38 0:1 1.32 1.32 110
9-Aug Dan. 2nd Viborg – Roskilde 1 1.46 2:1 1.09 1.09 109.5
8-Aug Cro. Varteks – Lok. Zagreb 1 1.46 2:1 1.09 1.09 109
8-Aug Ukr. D. Kiev – Illychivets 1 1.13 3:1 3.85 3.85 108.5
8-Aug Bul. Lok. Mezdra – Litex 2 1.23 0:5 2.17 2.17 108
7-Aug Neth. 2nd G.A. Eagles – Omniworld 1 1.48 2:0 1.04 1.04 107.5
6-Aug Europa League Qual. CZ Beograd – Dynamo T 1 1.49 5:2 1.02 1.02 107
6-Aug Europa League Qual. Lille – Sevoino 1 1.13 2:0 10.38 14.76 106.5
5-Aug Bra. Cruzeiro – Atletico PR 1 1.47 0:2 4.38 5.94 100.6
5-Aug Champions League Qual. Slavia P – Serif 1 1.32 0:0 1.56 1.56 104.44
5-Aug Champions League Qual. Bate – Ventspils 1 1.36 2:1 1.39 1.39 106
5-Aug Rus. Cup Amkar – Avangard 1 1.23 2:1 2.17 2.17 105.5
4-Aug Champions League Qual. Panathinaikos – Sparta P 1 1.33 3:0 4.61 5.63 105
4-Aug Est. F. Tallinn – Nomme K. 1 1.49 0:0 1.02 1.02 103.48
3-Aug Swe. 2nd Mallby – Tranhallan 1 1.29 2:0 1.72 1.72 104.5
2-Aug Bra. Atletico – Coritiba 1 1.49 3:2 1.02 1.02 104
2-Aug Ukr. M. Donetsk – Zakarpatia 1 1.27 4:1 1.85 1.85 103.5
2-Aug Ita. Cup Pro Patria – Gela 1 1.49 4:0 4.67 6.46 103
2-Aug Ger. Cup Worms – Furth 2 1.28 0:0 1.79 1.79 100.71
2-Aug Ger. Cup Oberneuland – Hoffenhaim 2 1.17 0:2 2.94 2.94 102.5
1-Aug Pol. Slask – Cracovia 1 1.5 2:0 1 1 102
1-Aug Cze. 2nd Opava – Vlasim 1 1.45 2:1 1.11 1.11 101.5
1-Aug Rus. Spartak M – Kuban 1 1.3 4:0 1.67 1.67 101
1-Aug Jap. 2nd Mito – Togichi 1 1.47 3:1 1.06 1.06 100.5

05.04.2009

United always wins!!!

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 19:14

Manchester United scored late goal to win against Aston Villa just few minutes ago. They probably will be on the first place in the Premier League after the last round, but this is not so important to me. Actually, as a fan of Arsenal this is awful situation, but this is the life. What is more important for me than this to see United again on the top is the next question.

Do you know the fact that United is a team which has not have sequence of five games without a win in the last 10 years?

I checked only the last ten, but there are may be more years without five games in a row without win for the red devils, which is great for martingale if you have enough money and balls to try it.
So, I checked what would be happened if I was played for United with martingale this year. Until today I would have ROI – 120% and I would be grateful to Sir Alex and Berbatov.

I use martingale with this formula. B=G+S/(C-1), where B is the bet, G is my goal, S is the sum of my previous lost bets and C is the coefficient for the United’s win. Here are the numbers:

Match
Res.
Coef.
Bet
Total
United – Newcastle
1:1
1.3
3.33
-3.33
Portsmouth – United
0:1
1.9
4.81
1
United – Fulham
3:0
1.21
4.76
2
Liverpool – United
2:1
2.9
0.53
1.47
Chelsea – United
1:1
2.9
0.81
0.66
United – Bolton
2:0
1.19
12.32
3
Blackburn – United
0:2
1.56
1.79
4
United – West Brom
4:0
1.15
6.67
5
Everton – United
1:1
1.46
2.17
2.83
United – West Ham
2:0
1.18
17.61
6
United – Hull
4:3
1.15
6.67
7
Arsenal – United
2:1
2.28
0.78
6.22
United – Stoke
5:0
1.15
11.87
8
Aston Villa – United
0:0
1.77
1.3
6.7
Manchester City – United
0:1
1.8
2.88
9
United – Sunderland
1:0
1.14
7.14
10
Tottenham – United
0:0
1.85
1.18
8.82
United – Wigan
1:0
1.27
8.07
11
Stoke – United
0:1
1.28
3.57
12
United – Middlesbrough
1:0
1.2
5
13
United – Chelsea
3:0
2.48
0.68
14
Bolton – United
0:1
1.46
2.17
15
West Brom – United
0:5
1.36
2.78
16
United – Everton
1:0
1.35
2.86
17
West Ham – United
0:1
1.57
1.75
18
United – Blackburn
2:1
1.24
4.17
19
Newcastle – United
1:2
1.4
2.5
20
United – Liverpool
1:4
1.88
1.14
18.86
Fulham – United
2:0
1.51
4.2
14.66
United – Villa
3:2
1.4
15.85
21

31.03.2009

My biggest mistake with martingale

Filed under: Snooker — Tags: , , , — admin @ 11:09

Right now, I am watching the snooker match between Dave Harold and Stephen Maguire and I remembered what I did few year ago. I want to share this with you, because it is very funny. I had brilliant idea about martingale system and I could not resist to try it which led to my biggest failure in betting.

I remember I walked on the street and thought something like: “Wow, this is great it can not be wrong. I am going to succeed”, well, now I am laughing for this street walk few years ago. I remembered a joke now about succeed, but you will find it on the bottom of this post :) .

Then I also watched snooker and I found out that the underdog has more than 2 coefficient to win in every frame and also even Ronnie lose some frames, so my idea was simply to bet in live martingale for the underdog. Of course the betting would stop when the underdog get a frame in 5 from 9 games and some frames in longer games.

Even now, I do believe there is some point in this system, but I don’t dare to try it again. What happened? Neel Robertson played with some player, I can’t recall his name now and easily won with 5-0 and I lost everything I had.

However, I must say it again, this system can be profitable, but it has to be played very carefully.

Now, the joke. May be many of you know about it, but anyway. So, we have a man climbing Everest. On the 4000 meters a beautiful blond woman stop him and told him: “Do you want sex with me or you want to succeed?” The man answered: “I want to succeed!”. The same situation happened again on the 6000 meters, but with beautiful brown hair woman and the answer was the same.

The final result here is that on the top of Everest, strong black man came up and simply said to the man: “Hello, my friend. My name is Seed!” :) That is :)

Powered by WordPress