After a few successful trials, the soccer hotmatches had two really bad months. In order to get back on track, I decided to return to an older soccer database, with strong hope that this will give me again those 130-180% ROI which I’ve got in the beginning of the year.
Crossing fingers.
As I posted earlier I followed the soccer matches where the favorite had coefficient more than 2.2. The first few days the results were amazing. 53% of the games finished with wins for the favorites. Here are the final stats for the month.
Favorite’s wins = 46%
Draws = 25%
Underdog’s wins = 29%
All this is from 124 matches played in June. I must say here that those 124 matches would be played just for a weekend in regular football months as September for example.
Is there something special in French League 1. I found an article in another blog that we shouldn’t bet there because there are too many surprises. I must say there are not more surprises than every other league in the world. I’ve already posted about draws in games where the favorite has coefficient between 1.71 and 2, because that margin gave some profit last year.
I also checked the big derbies where the favorite has odds higher than 2.21, because last year there was profit there too, but the results weren’t good at all. There is no profit in French league if you bet all games with particular odds. The results are exactly the same as everywhere. The results will return around 85-90% of your investments.
However, no more talks. Here is the table with stats. I hope somebody to find something I have missed.
|
2.21 +
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
|
2008/2009
|
55
|
30
|
35
|
45.83
|
25.00
|
29.17
|
|
2007/2008
|
47
|
33
|
37
|
40.17
|
28.21
|
31.62
|
|
2006/2007
|
45
|
46
|
29
|
37.50
|
38.33
|
24.17
|
|
2005/2006
|
49
|
39
|
31
|
41.18
|
32.77
|
26.05
|
|
2004/2005
|
43
|
46
|
30
|
36.13
|
38.66
|
25.21
|
As I wrote in my previous post I started to follow the French Ligue 1, inspired by another blog post about not betting on this league. Well, I found out that in a niche there was profit in the last season matches. It is about betting for draws in games where the odds for the favorite are between 1.71 and 2.
I took a closer look to the past 8 seasons, just to find out that there is no profit in that niche, but no losses, also. So, may be Ed is right – betting on French Ligue 1 is nonsense.
In the table below are all stats for this niche. I will start searching for another one, which gave small amount of profit – to bet in the league for the favorites with odds higher than 2.2. This gave profit of 110% last season. It is interesting if those result would be something regular or they are not.
|
1.71 – 2
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
|
2008/2009
|
40
|
31
|
13
|
47.62
|
36.90
|
15.48
|
|
2007/2008
|
54
|
35
|
19
|
50.00
|
32.41
|
17.59
|
|
2006/2007
|
56
|
24
|
19
|
56.57
|
24.24
|
19.19
|
|
2005/2006
|
43
|
32
|
19
|
45.74
|
34.04
|
20.21
|
|
2004/2005
|
49
|
29
|
15
|
52.69
|
31.18
|
16.13
|
|
2003/2004
|
58
|
32
|
14
|
55.77
|
30.77
|
13.46
|
|
2002/2003
|
56
|
20
|
30
|
52.83
|
18.87
|
28.30
|
Today I read an interesting post in Ed’s betting blog about a punter must not bet in French League 1. The reason Ed‘s giving is the fact that the teams are really close in terms of quality and the punter will have a really difficult job to find the winners or at least more difficult than other leagues. Well, he has something in mind and he is right about the quality of the teams. To have a round with 4 derby matches in the league is something quite normal. On the other hand in the 2008/2009 season there were only 26 games where the favorite had less than 1.4 odds for winning the match.
However, I found the post interesting and I decided to check the results from the last season to take a closer look, can a punter make profit from here. I use a really simple method. I have the odds for the favorite grouped in 5 groups – under 1.4, between 1.41 and 1.7; 1.71 – 2; 2.01 – 2.2 and above 2.21, then I look how the favorites finished the match – with win, they lost or the match finished with draw.
Here are the results from League 1 – season 2008/2009:
|
Fav. Odds
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
|
< 1.4
|
19
|
5
|
2
|
73.08
|
19.23
|
7.69
|
|
1.41 – 1.7
|
44
|
19
|
9
|
61.11
|
26.39
|
12.50
|
|
1.71 – 2
|
40
|
31
|
13
|
47.62
|
36.90
|
15.48
|
|
2.01 – 2.2
|
35
|
27
|
16
|
44.87
|
34.62
|
20.51
|
|
2.21 >
|
55
|
30
|
35
|
45.83
|
25.00
|
29.17
|
When I see that table my first impression is that Ed was not right. There were only two games where the big favorites, with odds under 1.4 lost their matches. 19 winners with the same odds are not enough at all, but the percent is normal, I think. There are two things that surprised me. First, it is the huge percent of wins, taken by favorites in derby matches – with odds higher than 2.21 – 45.83%. This is profit, well, not huge but it is profit. Second, I was surprised to see the draws in sector between 1.71 and 2 coefficient for the favorites. The percent there is 36.9 and here Ed is right. It is really tough to catch a winner, but it is pure profit to bet on draws. I am not sure about the previous seasons, but I will check it later. It will be fun it is correct. Even for martingale.
I found something that really hit me in the head. I started a paper sheet project a few weeks ago. Short explanation: the project is something about soccer betting on all favorites where the odds for them are over 2.2. What a big surprise came when I saw the first 60 games with more than 50% wins for the favorites. Here are the games:
|
1
|
Jap. Cup
|
Niigata – Yokohama
|
1
|
0:3
|
0
|
0
|
|
2
|
Jap. Cup
|
Kashiva – Kobe
|
1
|
3:0
|
1
|
50
|
|
3
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Yokohama – Fukuoka
|
1
|
0:1
|
1
|
33.33
|
|
4
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Gifu – Mito
|
2
|
1:1
|
1
|
25
|
|
5
|
World Cup
|
Costa Rika – USA
|
1
|
3:1
|
2
|
40
|
|
6
|
Bra.
|
Santo Andres – Santos
|
2
|
3:3
|
2
|
33.33
|
|
7
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Jastrzebie – Katowice
|
1
|
0:1
|
2
|
28.57
|
|
8
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Swinoujscie – Zaglebie
|
1
|
2:3
|
2
|
25
|
|
9
|
World Cup
|
North Korea – Iran
|
2
|
0:0
|
2
|
22.22
|
|
10
|
World Cup
|
Malawi – Burkina Faso
|
1
|
0:1
|
2
|
20
|
|
11
|
Cze. 2nd
|
Sparta Prague B – Dukla
|
1
|
1:0
|
3
|
27.27
|
|
12
|
World Cup
|
Gabon – Togo
|
1
|
3:0
|
4
|
33.33
|
|
13
|
World Cup
|
Macedonia – Norway
|
2
|
0:0
|
4
|
30.77
|
|
14
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Ancona – Rimini
|
1
|
1:1
|
4
|
28.57
|
|
15
|
World Cup
|
Lithuania – Romania
|
2
|
0:1
|
5
|
33.33
|
|
16
|
World Cup
|
Cyprus – Montenegro
|
1
|
2:2
|
5
|
31.25
|
|
17
|
World Cup
|
Uruguay – Brazil
|
2
|
0:4
|
6
|
35.29
|
|
18
|
World Cup
|
Trinidad & Tobago – Costa Rica
|
2
|
2:3
|
7
|
38.89
|
|
19
|
MLS
|
Kansas City – Columbus
|
1
|
0:2
|
7
|
36.84
|
|
20
|
Jap. Cup
|
Yamagata – Kashiwa
|
1
|
1:1
|
7
|
35
|
|
21
|
Jap. Cup
|
Kobe – Shimizu
|
2
|
1:2
|
8
|
38.1
|
|
22
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Toyama Kataller – Verdy
|
2
|
0:3
|
9
|
40.91
|
|
23
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Fukuoka – Kusatsu
|
1
|
1:2
|
9
|
39.13
|
|
24
|
Euro U21
|
Kazakhstan 21 – Montenegro 21
|
1
|
0:2
|
9
|
37.5
|
|
25
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Ljungskile – Norrköping
|
1
|
2:2
|
9
|
36
|
|
26
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Tromsdalen – Hønefoss
|
2
|
0:1
|
10
|
38.46
|
|
27
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Alta – Sarpsborg
|
1
|
3:0
|
11
|
40.74
|
|
28
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Stavanger IF – Bryne
|
2
|
0:2
|
12
|
42.86
|
|
29
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Eibar – Girona
|
2
|
2:2
|
12
|
41.38
|
|
30
|
Bra.
|
Sport Recife – Flamengo
|
1
|
4:2
|
13
|
43.33
|
|
31
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Grosseto – Livorno
|
1
|
2:0
|
14
|
45.16
|
|
32
|
World Cup
|
Mali – Ghana
|
1
|
0:2
|
14
|
43.75
|
|
33
|
World Cup
|
Algeria – Egypt
|
2
|
3:1
|
14
|
42.42
|
|
34
|
World Cup
|
Peru – Ecuador
|
2
|
1:2
|
15
|
44.12
|
|
35
|
Bra.
|
Fluminense – Botafogo
|
1
|
1:0
|
16
|
45.71
|
|
36
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Trollhättan FC – Angelholms
|
2
|
1:2
|
17
|
47.22
|
|
37
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Syrianska FC – Sundsvall
|
1
|
1:2
|
17
|
45.95
|
|
38
|
Lit.
|
Kruoja Pakruojis – Siauliai
|
2
|
0:5
|
18
|
47.37
|
|
39
|
Dan. 2nd
|
AB Copenhagen – Herfolge
|
1
|
0:4
|
18
|
46.15
|
|
40
|
Rom.
|
FC Brasov – FC Timisoara
|
2
|
1:0
|
18
|
45
|
|
41
|
Rom.
|
CS Otopeni – Farul
|
1
|
6:0
|
19
|
46.34
|
|
42
|
Rom.
|
G. Buzau – G. Bistrita
|
2
|
2:1
|
19
|
45.24
|
|
43
|
Rom.
|
Unirea – Steaua Bucharest
|
2
|
1:1
|
19
|
44.19
|
|
44
|
World Cup
|
Ecuador – Argentina
|
2
|
2:0
|
19
|
43.18
|
|
45
|
World Cup
|
Venezuela – Uruguay
|
2
|
2:2
|
19
|
42.22
|
|
46
|
Lat.
|
Daugava Riga – Tranzits Ventspils
|
1
|
2:0
|
20
|
43.48
|
|
47
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Jönköpings – Mjällby
|
2
|
0:3
|
21
|
44.68
|
|
48
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Brescia – Empoli
|
1
|
3:0
|
22
|
45.83
|
|
49
|
Bul.
|
Slavia Sofia – Lok. Sofia
|
2
|
2:2
|
22
|
44.9
|
|
50
|
Bul.
|
Spartak Varna – Litex Lovech
|
2
|
0:4
|
23
|
46
|
|
51
|
Ice.
|
Fjolnir – Fylkir
|
2
|
1:3
|
24
|
47.06
|
|
52
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Hønefoss – Ham-Kam
|
1
|
1:1
|
24
|
46.15
|
|
53
|
Ire. Cup
|
Tralee Dynamos – Salthill Devon
|
1
|
2:1
|
25
|
47.17
|
|
54
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Murcia – Salamanca
|
1
|
2:1
|
26
|
48.15
|
|
55
|
Rom. Cup
|
CFR Cluj – FC Timisoara
|
1
|
3:0
|
27
|
49.09
|
|
56
|
Bra.
|
Botafogo – Santos
|
1
|
2:0
|
28
|
50
|
|
57
|
MLS
|
DC United – Chicago
|
1
|
2:1
|
29
|
50.88
|
|
58
|
MLS
|
Kansas City – New England
|
1
|
3:1
|
30
|
51.72
|
|
59
|
MLS
|
Dallas – Houston
|
2
|
1:3
|
31
|
52.54
|
|
60
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Tochigi SC – Tosu
|
2
|
0:5
|
32
|
53.33
|
In my last post I wrote about my research on soccer betting and my soccer database. It wasn’t good enough, but there is profit. I found out that I made a mistake with the way of betting and not with the games I picked.
So, if I’d bet on single for the underdogs, instead of doubles with draw, I would have 35 winners and ROI of 118.63% with 1% of the bank, used for every bet.
Of course this result is only from 100 matches. I will continue with searching.
A few weeks ago I started a research using my soccer database. Until now I’ve used it only to find profit on favorites and there was some success. Betting on underdogs could be profitable too, but the punter must use the correct betting system and money management.
For my research I bet on 100 matches using doubles (draw and back the underdog) and only draws, using 3% on the bank on every bet. As a conclusion I can say that the draw betting was a mistake, I lost everything on the half way. The double betting was a bit better, but again with bad result. The ROI is about 80%. In the beginning the results were great and there was near 30% profit, but then the results got worse.
However, there is profit because 30+ of those games, predicted by my database as profitable when betting on underdogs finished with win for the underdogs. Most of the odds are high above 3, which will give good profit. I will check this later and I will try again.
Here is the table with matches:
|
Date
|
Campionship
|
Match
|
0.5
|
X K.
|
0.5 K.
|
Res.
|
X Bank
|
0.5 Bank
|
X +
|
0.5 +
|
No
|
X + %
|
0.5 + %
|
X ROI
|
0.5 ROI
|
|
6.06
|
MLS
|
Salt Lake – Colorado
|
X2
|
1.7
|
1:1
|
23.45
|
56
|
100
|
0.00
|
56.00
|
0.00
|
78.17
|
|||
|
6.06
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Albacete – Murcia
|
X2
|
1.58
|
0:0
|
22.75
|
55
|
99
|
0.00
|
55.56
|
0.00
|
75.83
|
|||
|
6.06
|
World Cup
|
Macedonia – Norway
|
1X
|
1.55
|
0:0
|
22.17
|
54
|
98
|
0.00
|
55.10
|
0.00
|
73.90
|
|||
|
5.06
|
MLS
|
Chicago – Houston
|
X2
|
1.6
|
0:1
|
21.62
|
53
|
97
|
0.00
|
54.64
|
0.00
|
72.07
|
|||
|
5.06
|
Ire.
|
Galway – Drogheda
|
X2
|
1.6
|
1:1
|
20.62
|
52
|
96
|
0.00
|
54.17
|
0.00
|
68.73
|
|||
|
5.06
|
Ire.
|
Sligo – Derry City
|
1Х
|
1.72
|
0:1
|
20.02
|
51
|
95
|
0.00
|
53.68
|
0.00
|
66.73
|
|||
|
3.06
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Tosu – Tokushima
|
X2
|
1.62
|
0:2
|
21.02
|
51
|
94
|
0.00
|
54.26
|
0.00
|
70.07
|
|||
|
2.06
|
Ire.
|
Bray – Sligo
|
1X
|
1.57
|
3:1
|
20.4
|
50
|
93
|
0.00
|
53.76
|
0.00
|
68.00
|
|||
|
2.06
|
Ire.
|
Shamrock – Dundalk FC
|
X2
|
3:1
|
19.83
|
49
|
92
|
0.00
|
53.26
|
0.00
|
66.10
|
||||
|
1.06
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Skeid – Løv-Ham
|
1X
|
1.6
|
1:2
|
20.83
|
49
|
91
|
0.00
|
53.85
|
0.00
|
69.43
|
|||
|
31.05
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Assyriska – Syrianska FC
|
X2
|
1.7
|
0:1
|
21.83
|
49
|
90
|
0.00
|
54.44
|
0.00
|
72.77
|
|||
|
31.05
|
Cro.
|
Cibalia – Sibenik
|
X2
|
1.65
|
2:1
|
21.13
|
48
|
89
|
0.00
|
53.93
|
0.00
|
70.43
|
|||
|
31.05
|
Cze. 2nd
|
Opava – Karvina FC
|
X2
|
1.6
|
1:0
|
22.13
|
48
|
88
|
0.00
|
54.55
|
0.00
|
73.77
|
|||
|
31.05
|
Aus.
|
Kapfenberg – Rapid Wien
|
1X
|
1.61
|
0:4
|
23.13
|
48
|
87
|
0.00
|
55.17
|
0.00
|
77.10
|
|||
|
30.05
|
MLS
|
New England – DC United
|
X2
|
1.5
|
2:1
|
24.13
|
48
|
86
|
0.00
|
55.81
|
0.00
|
80.43
|
|||
|
30.05
|
Fra.
|
St. Etienne – Valenciennes
|
X2
|
2.75
|
4:0
|
25.13
|
48
|
85
|
0.00
|
56.47
|
0.00
|
83.77
|
|||
|
30.05
|
Rom.
|
Farul – Gaz Metan
|
1X
|
1.5
|
2:0
|
26.13
|
48
|
84
|
0.00
|
57.14
|
0.00
|
87.10
|
|||
|
30.05
|
Swi.
|
Sion – Bellinzona
|
X2
|
1.925
|
1:1
|
25.63
|
47
|
83
|
0.00
|
56.63
|
0.00
|
85.43
|
|||
|
30.05
|
Svk.
|
Dubnica – Nitra
|
X2
|
1.825
|
4:1
|
24.71
|
46
|
82
|
0.00
|
56.10
|
0.00
|
82.37
|
|||
|
30.05
|
Serb.
|
Hajduk Kula – Borac
|
X2
|
1.5
|
2:1
|
25.71
|
46
|
81
|
0.00
|
56.79
|
0.00
|
85.70
|
|||
|
30.05
|
Blr.
|
Vitebsk – Mikashevichi
|
X2
|
1.78
|
2:1
|
26.71
|
46
|
80
|
0.00
|
57.50
|
0.00
|
89.03
|
|||
|
30.05
|
Cze.
|
C. Budejovice – Teplice
|
X2
|
1.8
|
3:0
|
27.71
|
46
|
79
|
0.00
|
58.23
|
0.00
|
92.37
|
|||
|
30.05
|
Isr.
|
M. Tel Aviv – Ashdod
|
X2
|
1.74
|
1:0
|
28.71
|
46
|
78
|
0.00
|
58.97
|
0.00
|
95.70
|
|||
|
29.05
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Kumamoto – Tosu
|
1X
|
1:2
|
29.71
|
46
|
77
|
0.00
|
59.74
|
0.00
|
99.03
|
||||
|
29.05
|
Arg.
|
Newell’s Old Boys – Arsenal
|
X2
|
2.21
|
1:1
|
30.71
|
46
|
76
|
0.00
|
60.53
|
0.00
|
102.37
|
|||
|
29.05
|
Fra. 2nd
|
Boulogne – Amiens
|
X2
|
4:0
|
29.51
|
45
|
75
|
0.00
|
60.00
|
0.00
|
98.37
|
||||
|
29.05
|
Ire.
|
St. Patricks – Bray
|
X2
|
2.29
|
1:1
|
30.51
|
45
|
74
|
0.00
|
60.81
|
0.00
|
101.70
|
|||
|
29.05
|
Aus. 2nd
|
FC Lustenau – W. Neustadt
|
X2
|
1.56
|
0:2
|
29.22
|
44
|
73
|
0.00
|
60.27
|
0.00
|
97.40
|
|||
|
28.05
|
Ire.
|
Galway – Derry City
|
1X
|
1.99
|
0:3
|
28.66
|
43
|
72
|
0.00
|
59.72
|
0.00
|
95.53
|
|||
|
28.05
|
Sing.
|
Geylang – Sengkang Punggol
|
X2
|
1.6
|
2:0
|
29.66
|
43
|
71
|
0.00
|
60.56
|
0.00
|
98.87
|
|||
|
28.05
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Toyama Kataller – Tochigi SC
|
X2
|
1.68
|
0:1
|
30.66
|
42
|
70
|
0.00
|
60.00
|
0.00
|
102.20
|
|||
|
27.05
|
Copa Libertadores
|
Caracas FC – Gremio
|
1X
|
1.6
|
1:1
|
29.98
|
41
|
69
|
0.00
|
59.42
|
0.00
|
99.93
|
|||
|
27.05
|
Bel.
|
Neman – Naftan
|
X2
|
2:0
|
29.38
|
40
|
68
|
0.00
|
58.82
|
0.00
|
97.93
|
||||
|
25.05
|
Swe.
|
Gefle – AIK
|
1X
|
1.5
|
1:0
|
0.25
|
30.38
|
12
|
40
|
67
|
17.91
|
59.70
|
0.83
|
101.27
|
|
|
24.05
|
Arg.
|
San Martin T. – Gimnasia LP
|
X2
|
1.55
|
0:1
|
1.25
|
29.88
|
12
|
39
|
66
|
18.18
|
59.09
|
4.17
|
99.60
|
|
|
24.05
|
Bra.
|
Sport Recife – Atletico-MG
|
X2
|
1.83
|
2:3
|
2.25
|
29.33
|
12
|
38
|
65
|
18.46
|
58.46
|
7.50
|
97.77
|
|
|
24.05
|
Bra.
|
Santo André – Flamengo
|
X2
|
1.54
|
1:2
|
3.25
|
28.5
|
12
|
37
|
64
|
18.75
|
57.81
|
10.83
|
95.00
|
|
|
24.05
|
Swi.
|
Xamax – Aarau
|
X2
|
3:1
|
4.25
|
27.96
|
12
|
36
|
63
|
19.05
|
57.14
|
14.17
|
93.20
|
||
|
24.05
|
Swi.
|
Young Boys – Luzern
|
X2
|
5:2
|
5.25
|
28.96
|
12
|
36
|
62
|
19.35
|
58.06
|
17.50
|
96.53
|
||
|
24.05
|
Ita.
|
Siena – Juventus
|
1X
|
0:3
|
6.25
|
29.96
|
12
|
36
|
61
|
19.67
|
59.02
|
20.83
|
99.87
|
||
|
24.05
|
Ita.
|
Catania – Napoli
|
X2
|
3:1
|
7.25
|
30.96
|
12
|
36
|
60
|
20.00
|
60.00
|
24.17
|
103.20
|
||
|
24.05
|
Eng. League One
|
Millwall – Scunthorpe
|
X2
|
3.2
|
1.5
|
2:3
|
8.25
|
31.96
|
12
|
36
|
59
|
20.34
|
61.02
|
27.50
|
106.53
|
|
24.05
|
Sco.
|
Aberdeen – Hibernian
|
X2
|
2:1
|
9.25
|
31.46
|
12
|
35
|
58
|
20.69
|
60.34
|
30.83
|
104.87
|
||
|
23.05
|
Arg.
|
Rosario – Huracan
|
1X
|
3.2
|
1.44
|
1:2
|
10.25
|
32.46
|
12
|
35
|
57
|
21.05
|
61.40
|
34.17
|
108.20
|
|
23.05
|
Hun.
|
Vasas – Kaposvar
|
X2
|
3.2
|
1.6
|
2:1
|
11.25
|
33.46
|
12
|
35
|
56
|
21.43
|
62.50
|
37.50
|
111.53
|
|
23.05
|
Swi. 2nd
|
Winterthur – Concordia
|
X2
|
3.25
|
1.6
|
4:5
|
12.25
|
34.46
|
12
|
35
|
55
|
21.82
|
63.64
|
40.83
|
114.87
|
|
23.05
|
Slo.
|
Celje – Koper
|
X2
|
3.25
|
1.54
|
1:2
|
13.25
|
33.86
|
12
|
34
|
54
|
22.22
|
62.96
|
44.17
|
112.87
|
|
23.05
|
Svk.
|
Kosice – Trnava
|
X2
|
3.2
|
1.6
|
2:1
|
14.25
|
33.32
|
12
|
33
|
53
|
22.64
|
62.26
|
47.50
|
111.07
|
|
23.05
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Podbeskidzie – Turek
|
X2
|
4
|
2.35
|
9:0
|
15.25
|
34.32
|
12
|
33
|
52
|
23.08
|
63.46
|
50.83
|
114.40
|
|
23.05
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Stalowa Wola – Katowice
|
X2
|
3.2
|
1.55
|
0:0
|
16.25
|
35.32
|
12
|
33
|
51
|
23.53
|
64.71
|
54.17
|
117.73
|
|
23.05
|
Ice.
|
Keflavik – Fram
|
X2
|
3.6
|
1.94
|
1:0
|
14.05
|
34.77
|
11
|
32
|
50
|
22.00
|
64.00
|
46.83
|
115.90
|
|
23.05
|
Ukr.
|
A. Kiev – Karpaty
|
X2
|
3.3
|
1.71
|
4:0
|
15.05
|
35.77
|
11
|
31
|
49
|
22.45
|
63.27
|
50.17
|
119.23
|
|
23.05
|
Cze.
|
Liberec – C. Budejovice
|
X2
|
4.33
|
3.1
|
2:0
|
16.05
|
36.77
|
11
|
31
|
48
|
22.92
|
64.58
|
53.50
|
122.57
|
|
23.05
|
Cze.
|
Pribram – Zizkov
|
X2
|
3.5
|
2.24
|
3:0
|
17.05
|
37.77
|
11
|
31
|
47
|
23.40
|
65.96
|
56.83
|
125.90
|
|
22.05
|
Ire.
|
Dundalk FC – St. Patricks
|
X2
|
3
|
1.53
|
0:1
|
18.05
|
38.77
|
11
|
31
|
46
|
23.91
|
67.39
|
60.17
|
129.23
|
|
21.05
|
Mex.
|
Indios – Pachuca
|
1X
|
3.25
|
1.57
|
0:2
|
19.05
|
37.24
|
11
|
30
|
45
|
24.44
|
66.67
|
63.50
|
124.13
|
|
21.05
|
Nor. 2nd
|
Sarpsborg – Haugesund
|
1X
|
3.5
|
1.54
|
1:0
|
20.05
|
38.24
|
11
|
30
|
44
|
25.00
|
68.18
|
66.83
|
127.47
|
|
21.05
|
Fin. 2nd
|
Viikingit – Oulu
|
1X
|
3.25
|
1.44
|
1:1
|
21.05
|
37.8
|
11
|
29
|
43
|
25.58
|
67.44
|
70.17
|
126.00
|
|
21.05
|
Fin. 2nd
|
Kiisto Vaasa – Kemi
|
X2
|
3.25
|
1.44
|
0:2
|
18.8
|
37.36
|
10
|
28
|
42
|
23.81
|
66.67
|
62.67
|
124.53
|
|
21.05
|
Fin. 2nd
|
PoPa Pori – PK-35
|
X2
|
3.25
|
1.61
|
1:1
|
19.8
|
36.92
|
10
|
27
|
41
|
24.39
|
65.85
|
66.00
|
123.07
|
|
21.05
|
Aus.
|
Sturm – Salzburg
|
X2
|
3.6
|
1.85
|
2:0
|
17.55
|
36.31
|
9
|
26
|
40
|
22.50
|
65.00
|
58.50
|
121.03
|
|
21.05
|
Aus.
|
LASK Linz – Austria Wien
|
1X
|
4
|
2.3
|
4:0
|
18.55
|
37.31
|
9
|
26
|
39
|
23.08
|
66.67
|
61.83
|
124.37
|
|
20.05
|
Fin. 2nd
|
Klubi-04 Helsinki – TPV Tampere
|
X2
|
3.4
|
1.57
|
1:1
|
19.55
|
36.01
|
9
|
25
|
38
|
23.68
|
65.79
|
65.17
|
120.03
|
|
20.05
|
Slo.
|
Velenje – Domzale
|
X2
|
3.25
|
1.6
|
2:2
|
17.15
|
35.54
|
8
|
24
|
37
|
21.62
|
64.86
|
57.17
|
118.47
|
|
20.05
|
Jap. 2nd
|
Fukuoka – Kofu
|
1X
|
3.25
|
1.5
|
2:4
|
14.9
|
34.94
|
7
|
23
|
36
|
19.44
|
63.89
|
49.67
|
116.47
|
|
17.05
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Znicz – Gornik Leczna
|
X2
|
3.4
|
1.7
|
0:2
|
15.9
|
35.94
|
7
|
23
|
35
|
20.00
|
65.71
|
53.00
|
119.80
|
|
17.05
|
Swe. 2nd
|
Qviding – Angelholms
|
1X
|
3.2
|
1.53
|
3:1
|
16.9
|
35.24
|
7
|
22
|
34
|
20.59
|
64.71
|
56.33
|
117.47
|
|
17.05
|
Por. 2nd
|
Gil Vicente – Aves
|
X2
|
2.8
|
1.55
|
1:1
|
17.9
|
34.81
|
7
|
21
|
33
|
21.21
|
63.64
|
59.67
|
116.03
|
|
17.05
|
Por. 2nd
|
Vizela – Portimonense
|
X2
|
2.6
|
1.46
|
2:2
|
16.1
|
34.26
|
6
|
20
|
32
|
18.75
|
62.50
|
53.67
|
114.20
|
|
17.05
|
Cze. 2nd
|
Usti n. L. – Vitkovice
|
X2
|
3.2
|
1.55
|
2:0
|
14.5
|
33.76
|
5
|
19
|
31
|
16.13
|
61.29
|
48.33
|
112.53
|
|
17.05
|
Rom.
|
Otelul – Unirea
|
1X
|
3.2
|
1.83
|
0:2
|
15.5
|
34.76
|
5
|
19
|
30
|
16.67
|
63.33
|
51.67
|
115.87
|
|
17.05
|
Ger. 2nd
|
Oberhausen – Freiburg
|
1X
|
3.2
|
1.5
|
1:0
|
16.5
|
35.76
|
5
|
19
|
29
|
17.24
|
65.52
|
55.00
|
119.20
|
|
16.05
|
MLS
|
Salt Lake – Kansas City
|
X2
|
3.4
|
2.05
|
0:2
|
17.5
|
35.26
|
5
|
18
|
28
|
17.86
|
64.29
|
58.33
|
117.53
|
|
16.05
|
Bra.
|
Coritiba – Santo André
|
X2
|
3.6
|
1.95
|
2:4
|
18.5
|
34.21
|
5
|
17
|
27
|
18.52
|
62.96
|
61.67
|
114.03
|
|
16.05
|
Por.
|
Setubal – Leixoes
|
X2
|
3.2
|
2.05
|
0:1
|
19.5
|
33.26
|
5
|
16
|
26
|
19.23
|
61.54
|
65.00
|
110.87
|
|
16.05
|
Por.
|
Maritimo – Sporting
|
1X
|
3.5
|
2.05
|
1:2
|
20.5
|
32.21
|
5
|
15
|
25
|
20.00
|
60.00
|
68.33
|
107.37
|
|
16.05
|
Ire.
|
Shamrock – Bohemians D.
|
1X
|
3.2
|
1.71
|
2:1
|
21.5
|
33.21
|
5
|
15
|
24
|
20.83
|
62.50
|
71.67
|
110.70
|
|
16.05
|
Slo.
|
Celje – Gorica
|
X2
|
3.25
|
1.7
|
1:2
|
22.5
|
32.5
|
5
|
14
|
23
|
21.74
|
60.87
|
75.00
|
108.33
|
|
16.05
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Odra O. – Dolcan Zabki
|
1X
|
3.2
|
1.55
|
0:0
|
23.5
|
31.8
|
5
|
13
|
22
|
22.73
|
59.09
|
78.33
|
106.00
|
|
16.05
|
Spa. 2nd
|
Real Sociedad – Albacete
|
X2
|
3.4
|
2.26
|
1:0
|
21.3
|
31.25
|
4
|
12
|
21
|
19.05
|
57.14
|
71.00
|
104.17
|
|
16.05
|
Isr.
|
Bnei Sakhnin – M. Netanya
|
X2
|
3.1
|
1.55
|
0:0
|
22.3
|
32.25
|
4
|
12
|
20
|
20.00
|
60.00
|
74.33
|
107.50
|
|
16.05
|
Swi.
|
Bellinzona – Vaduz
|
X2
|
4
|
2.83
|
3:1
|
20.2
|
31.7
|
3
|
11
|
19
|
15.79
|
57.89
|
67.33
|
105.67
|
|
16.05
|
Slo.
|
Drava – Velenje
|
X2
|
3.3
|
1.55
|
2:0
|
21.2
|
32.7
|
3
|
11
|
18
|
16.67
|
61.11
|
70.67
|
109.00
|
|
16.05
|
Ita. 2nd
|
Avellino – Treviso
|
X2
|
4
|
2.55
|
1:0
|
22.2
|
33.7
|
3
|
11
|
17
|
17.65
|
64.71
|
74.00
|
112.33
|
|
16.05
|
Pol.
|
Jagiellonia – Polonia W.
|
1X
|
3.3
|
1.55
|
2:1
|
23.2
|
34.7
|
3
|
11
|
16
|
18.75
|
68.75
|
77.33
|
115.67
|
|
15.05
|
Ire.
|
St. Patricks – Sligo
|
X2
|
3.1
|
1.57
|
2:2
|
24.3
|
34.32
|
3
|
10
|
15
|
20.00
|
66.67
|
81.00
|
114.40
|
|
15.05
|
Rom.
|
Steaua – Rapid Bucharest
|
X2
|
3.4
|
1.9
|
1:2
|
22.2
|
33.75
|
2
|
9
|
14
|
14.29
|
64.29
|
74.00
|
112.50
|
|
15.05
|
Pol.
|
Arka – Ruch
|
X2
|
3.4
|
1.6
|
1:2
|
23.2
|
32.85
|
2
|
8
|
13
|
15.38
|
61.54
|
77.33
|
109.50
|
|
14.05
|
Ice.
|
Grindavík – KR Reykiavik
|
1X
|
3.4
|
1.75
|
0:4
|
24.2
|
32.25
|
2
|
7
|
12
|
16.67
|
58.33
|
80.67
|
107.50
|
|
13.05
|
Dan.
|
Odense – FC Copenhagen
|
1X
|
3.4
|
1.56
|
3:2
|
25.2
|
33.25
|
2
|
7
|
11
|
18.18
|
63.64
|
84.00
|
110.83
|
|
13.05
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Zaglebie – Warta
|
X2
|
4.33
|
3.2
|
1:2
|
26.2
|
32.69
|
2
|
6
|
10
|
20.00
|
60.00
|
87.33
|
108.97
|
|
13.05
|
Swe. Cup
|
Mjällby – Hammarby
|
X2
|
3.3
|
1.32
|
4:2
|
27.2
|
30.49
|
2
|
5
|
9
|
22.22
|
55.56
|
90.67
|
101.63
|
|
13.05
|
Swe. Cup
|
Sundsvall – Häcken
|
X2
|
3.3
|
1.32
|
3:5
|
28.2
|
31.49
|
2
|
5
|
8
|
25.00
|
62.50
|
94.00
|
104.97
|
|
13.05
|
Svk.
|
Dubnica – Dun. Streda
|
X2
|
3.25
|
1.7
|
3:0
|
29.2
|
31.17
|
2
|
4
|
7
|
28.57
|
57.14
|
97.33
|
103.90
|
|
13.05
|
Hun.
|
Győr – Haladas
|
X2
|
3.4
|
1.6
|
3:3
|
30.2
|
32.17
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
33.33
|
66.67
|
100.67
|
107.23
|
|
13.05
|
Fra.
|
Nancy – Lorient
|
X2
|
2.8
|
1.57
|
2:2
|
27.8
|
31.57
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
20.00
|
60.00
|
92.67
|
105.23
|
|
13.05
|
Cze. Cup
|
Slovacko – Slavia Prague
|
1X
|
3.4
|
1.8
|
2:1
|
26
|
31
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
0.00
|
50.00
|
86.67
|
103.33
|
|
13.05
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Stalowa Wola – Jastrzebie
|
X2
|
3.3
|
1.7
|
2:0
|
27
|
29.2
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
0.00
|
33.33
|
90.00
|
97.33
|
|
13.05
|
Pol. 2nd
|
Dolcan Zabki – Plock
|
X2
|
3.25
|
1.7
|
1:0
|
28
|
30.2
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
0.00
|
50.00
|
93.33
|
100.67
|
| 12.05 | Aus. 2nd | St. Polten – Admira | 1X | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2:1 | 29 | 31.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 96.67 | 104.00 |
Recently I’ve been reading a post in punterslounge forum about a football rating system. The posts there are really fascinating and throw me in deep thinking about maths and how we use it.
However, I have read only 3 pages until now, because I have other stuff to do, but the post helped me with some fresh ideas, which I am going to give a try.
I was really impressed with how we can use the idea of Gauss about Least Squares Approximations . Right now I have put all other betting stuff aside and just read about this method.
I hope it will help me improve my results, which are quite bad these days.
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