As I posted earlier I was going to bet on Under for Phoenix with Martinagale. Finally it gave profit and I am satisfied with full pockets. 
Crossing fingers this to continue.
09.07.2009
Phoenix made profit. Finally!
04.06.2009
Mathematics and betting
Recently I’ve been reading a post in punterslounge forum about a football rating system. The posts there are really fascinating and throw me in deep thinking about maths and how we use it.
However, I have read only 3 pages until now, because I have other stuff to do, but the post helped me with some fresh ideas, which I am going to give a try.
I was really impressed with how we can use the idea of Gauss about Least Squares Approximations . Right now I have put all other betting stuff aside and just read about this method.
I hope it will help me improve my results, which are quite bad these days.
29.05.2009
A new way of betting – Finnish 1st league
First of all I want to say that I know this is really strange method of betting, but it is fun. As I wrote two days ago, my idea is to check for patterns and to find some deviations. For example I can show you my post – A quiz for punters, where under and over profit in NBA games can be made if the punter guesses the model correctly.
However, this is the tricky part – to find and use the deviation or the pattern to make some profit.
OK enough talks. What I made. I check the results in Finnish 1st league 10 years back concentrating only on first 51 games in the year. I put them all in an excel sheet to search for deviation and I found something. You can see it on the tables down.
|
Favorite’s win
|
Draw
|
Underdog’s win
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Year
|
09
|
08
|
07
|
06
|
05
|
04
|
03
|
02
|
01
|
09
|
08
|
07
|
06
|
05
|
04
|
03
|
02
|
01
|
09
|
08
|
07
|
06
|
05
|
04
|
03
|
02
|
01
|
|
< 1.4
|
100
|
66.7
|
66.7
|
100
|
66.7
|
50
|
80
|
50
|
100
|
0
|
33.3
|
33.3
|
0
|
33.3
|
50
|
20
|
25
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
25
|
0
|
|
1.41 – 1.7
|
50
|
54.5
|
77.8
|
54.5
|
68.8
|
75
|
60
|
72.7
|
53.3
|
41.7
|
27.3
|
22.2
|
27.3
|
25
|
25
|
40
|
18.2
|
26.7
|
8.33
|
18.2
|
0
|
18.2
|
6.25
|
0
|
0
|
9.09
|
20
|
|
1.71 – 2
|
57.1
|
54.5
|
31.3
|
52.9
|
44.4
|
36.4
|
70
|
60
|
33.3
|
28.6
|
27.3
|
31.3
|
29.4
|
33.3
|
27.3
|
20
|
30
|
41.7
|
14.3
|
18.2
|
37.5
|
17.6
|
22.2
|
36.4
|
10
|
10
|
25
|
|
2.01 – 2.2
|
11.1
|
54.5
|
38.5
|
40
|
50
|
42.9
|
50
|
71.4
|
35.7
|
66.7
|
18.2
|
30.8
|
30
|
50
|
28.6
|
25
|
28.6
|
42.9
|
22.2
|
27.3
|
30.8
|
30
|
0
|
28.6
|
25
|
0
|
21.4
|
|
2.21 >
|
41.7
|
46.7
|
40
|
0
|
25
|
35.3
|
29.4
|
31.6
|
20
|
25
|
33.3
|
40
|
36.4
|
62.5
|
23.5
|
11.8
|
36.8
|
30
|
33.3
|
20
|
20
|
63.6
|
12.5
|
41.2
|
58.8
|
31.6
|
50
|
An explanation about the table. I have used average odds from betexplorer and as it is seen I have grouped them on 5 groups according the odds for the favorite of the game. So if we have a match won by the favorite who had odds on 1.76 I will write as favorite’s win on the group between 1.71 – 2.0.
So, what can be seen on this table. I can see that this year the wins for the favorites who have odds between 2.01 and 2.2 are really few – only 11.1% of all matches. This haven’t been seen by now and I think there is great chance for some profit in the next games with favorite’s odds between 2.01 and 2.2. I will back them in the following matches. We will see.
Another thing that occur in my mind when I look that table is that on almost every year there is a draw when we have a match with favorite with odds below 1.4, this can be tried too. In this season there is no draw at all, but the risk is to high, i think.
And finally there is too many draws 41.7% when the favorite has coefficient between 1.41 and 1.7. If everything in the world must be balanced the next few games will be taken by the favorites. I will try it and I will back favorites. What do you think?
However, the most important part of this research is the next 50 games. I will make it tomorrow and we will see is my idea good or it is nothing special.