Sports Betting Blog

10.09.2009

A perfect example why we should avoid Martingale

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , — admin @ 12:09

I made a research inspired by a betting forum article for using martingale with big favorites. The idea is simple you take 5 big guns and bet for them using martingale. I switch the research using another method, but with the same idea.
I bet on every favorite below 1.5 coefficient and using my soccer database to make selection. Where the odds shown by my database are higher than those given by the bookies I bet on this match.
The only condition is in the section of the database which I will use to have at least 20 games.
When two or more matches are being played at the same time I will bet on the first on the table in today’s soccer match.
Sound really simple and it was, but martingale is really deadly method. I lost everything. However, it was just a paper trial and my money is still on the bank, luckily.
Here are the matches and the paper trial:

Date Championship Match Pred. Odds Res. Bet Sum Total
18-Aug Ire. Cup Bohemians – Dundalk 1 1.46 0:0 74.94 109.92 0
16-Aug Pol. Lech – Polonia 1 1.46 2:4 24.3 34.98 74.94
16-Aug Hun. Uipest – Lombard 1 1.3 0:3 8.6 10.68 99.24
16-Aug Wal. Leanelli – Airbus 1 1.24 2:2 2.08 2.08 109.92
15-Aug Bel. Anderlecht – Westerlo 1 1.25 3:0 2 2 112
15-Aug Ukr. Stal – Tavria 2 1.29 0:4 30.17 38.42 111.5
14-Aug Ita. Cup Parma – Novara 1 1.3 1:2 6.73 8.25 101.23
14-Aug Fin. Inter T – KuPS 1 1.33 2:3 1.52 1.52 109.48
12-Aug Eng. Carling Cup Nottingham – Bradford 1 1.47 3:0 3.38 4.47 111
9-Aug Ice. Keflavik – Breidablik 1 1.46 0:3 1.09 1.09 109.41
9-Aug Cze.   Slavia P – Bohemians 1 1.3 3:1 1.67 1.67 110.5
9-Aug Dan.   Sonderjyske – FC Copenhagen 2 1.38 0:1 1.32 1.32 110
9-Aug Dan. 2nd Viborg – Roskilde 1 1.46 2:1 1.09 1.09 109.5
8-Aug Cro. Varteks – Lok. Zagreb 1 1.46 2:1 1.09 1.09 109
8-Aug Ukr. D. Kiev – Illychivets 1 1.13 3:1 3.85 3.85 108.5
8-Aug Bul. Lok. Mezdra – Litex 2 1.23 0:5 2.17 2.17 108
7-Aug Neth. 2nd G.A. Eagles – Omniworld 1 1.48 2:0 1.04 1.04 107.5
6-Aug Europa League Qual. CZ Beograd – Dynamo T 1 1.49 5:2 1.02 1.02 107
6-Aug Europa League Qual. Lille – Sevoino 1 1.13 2:0 10.38 14.76 106.5
5-Aug Bra. Cruzeiro – Atletico PR 1 1.47 0:2 4.38 5.94 100.6
5-Aug Champions League Qual. Slavia P – Serif 1 1.32 0:0 1.56 1.56 104.44
5-Aug Champions League Qual. Bate – Ventspils 1 1.36 2:1 1.39 1.39 106
5-Aug Rus. Cup Amkar – Avangard 1 1.23 2:1 2.17 2.17 105.5
4-Aug Champions League Qual. Panathinaikos – Sparta P 1 1.33 3:0 4.61 5.63 105
4-Aug Est. F. Tallinn – Nomme K. 1 1.49 0:0 1.02 1.02 103.48
3-Aug Swe. 2nd Mallby – Tranhallan 1 1.29 2:0 1.72 1.72 104.5
2-Aug Bra. Atletico – Coritiba 1 1.49 3:2 1.02 1.02 104
2-Aug Ukr. M. Donetsk – Zakarpatia 1 1.27 4:1 1.85 1.85 103.5
2-Aug Ita. Cup Pro Patria – Gela 1 1.49 4:0 4.67 6.46 103
2-Aug Ger. Cup Worms – Furth 2 1.28 0:0 1.79 1.79 100.71
2-Aug Ger. Cup Oberneuland – Hoffenhaim 2 1.17 0:2 2.94 2.94 102.5
1-Aug Pol. Slask – Cracovia 1 1.5 2:0 1 1 102
1-Aug Cze. 2nd Opava – Vlasim 1 1.45 2:1 1.11 1.11 101.5
1-Aug Rus. Spartak M – Kuban 1 1.3 4:0 1.67 1.67 101
1-Aug Jap. 2nd Mito – Togichi 1 1.47 3:1 1.06 1.06 100.5

19.06.2009

To bet on French League 1

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 15:52

Today I read an interesting post in Ed’s betting blog about a punter must not bet in French League 1. The reason Ed‘s giving is the fact that the teams are really close in terms of quality and the punter will have a really difficult job to find the winners or at least more difficult than other leagues. Well, he has something in mind and he is right about the quality of the teams. To have a round with 4 derby matches in the league is something quite normal. On the other hand in the 2008/2009 season there were only 26 games where the favorite had less than 1.4 odds for winning the match.

However, I found the post interesting and I decided to check the results from the last season to take a closer look, can a punter make profit from here. I use a really simple method. I have the odds for the favorite grouped in 5 groups – under 1.4, between 1.41 and 1.7; 1.71 – 2; 2.01 – 2.2 and above 2.21, then I look how the favorites finished the match – with win, they lost or the match finished with draw.

Here are the results from League 1 – season 2008/2009:

Fav. Odds
FW
Draw
UW
FW
Draw
UW
< 1.4
19
5
2
73.08
19.23
7.69
1.41 – 1.7
44
19
9
61.11
26.39
12.50
1.71 – 2
40
31
13
47.62
36.90
15.48
2.01 – 2.2
35
27
16
44.87
34.62
20.51
2.21 >
55
30
35
45.83
25.00
29.17

When I see that table my first impression is that Ed was not right. There were only two games where the big favorites, with odds under 1.4 lost their matches. 19 winners with the same odds are not enough at all, but the percent is normal, I think. There are two things that surprised me. First, it is the huge percent of wins, taken by favorites in derby matches – with odds higher than 2.21 – 45.83%. This is profit, well, not huge but it is profit. Second, I was surprised to see the draws in sector between 1.71 and 2 coefficient for the favorites. The percent there is 36.9 and here Ed is right. It is really tough to catch a winner, but it is pure profit to bet on draws. I am not sure about the previous seasons, but I will check it later. It will be fun it is correct. Even for martingale.

10.06.2009

Creating odds from ratings

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , , , — admin @ 11:36

I read lot about power ratings etc. about the way of making good soccer betting system. Of course, those ratings can be used for any sports, but most of the punters use it for soccer. From all the pages I read, I assume that one of the biggest problems in those ratings is how to calculate true odds from your ratings, so the punter can search for value.

I must say, it is an unexplored field for me, but it seems easy to me how to calculate those odds and the way is to use Asian handycap +0.5. Isn’t it?

07.06.2009

Betting on underdogs using betsuf database

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , , , — admin @ 9:25

A few weeks ago I started a research using my soccer database. Until now I’ve used it only to find profit on favorites and there was some success. Betting on underdogs could be profitable too, but the punter must use the correct betting system and money management.

For my research I bet on 100 matches using doubles (draw and back the underdog) and only draws, using 3% on the bank on every bet. As a conclusion I can say that the draw betting was a mistake, I lost everything on the half way. The double betting was a bit better, but again with bad result. The ROI is about 80%. In the beginning the results were great and there was near 30% profit, but then the results got worse.

However, there is profit because 30+ of those games, predicted by my database as profitable when betting on underdogs finished with win for the underdogs. Most of the odds are high above 3, which will give good profit. I will check this later and I will try again.

Here is the table with matches:

Date
Campionship
Match
0.5
X K.
0.5 K.
Res.
X Bank
0.5 Bank
X +
0.5 +
No
X + %
0.5 + %
X ROI
0.5 ROI
6.06
MLS
Salt Lake – Colorado
X2
1.7
1:1
23.45
56
100
0.00
56.00
0.00
78.17
6.06
Spa. 2nd
Albacete – Murcia
X2
1.58
0:0
22.75
55
99
0.00
55.56
0.00
75.83
6.06
World Cup
Macedonia – Norway
1X
1.55
0:0
22.17
54
98
0.00
55.10
0.00
73.90
5.06
MLS
Chicago – Houston
X2
1.6
0:1
21.62
53
97
0.00
54.64
0.00
72.07
5.06
Ire.
Galway – Drogheda
X2
1.6
1:1
20.62
52
96
0.00
54.17
0.00
68.73
5.06
Ire.
Sligo – Derry City
1Х
1.72
0:1
20.02
51
95
0.00
53.68
0.00
66.73
3.06
Jap. 2nd
Tosu – Tokushima
X2
1.62
0:2
21.02
51
94
0.00
54.26
0.00
70.07
2.06
Ire.
Bray – Sligo
1X
1.57
3:1
20.4
50
93
0.00
53.76
0.00
68.00
2.06
Ire.
Shamrock – Dundalk FC
X2
3:1
19.83
49
92
0.00
53.26
0.00
66.10
1.06
Nor. 2nd
Skeid – Løv-Ham
1X
1.6
1:2
20.83
49
91
0.00
53.85
0.00
69.43
31.05
Swe. 2nd
Assyriska – Syrianska FC
X2
1.7
0:1
21.83
49
90
0.00
54.44
0.00
72.77
31.05
Cro.
Cibalia – Sibenik
X2
1.65
2:1
21.13
48
89
0.00
53.93
0.00
70.43
31.05
Cze. 2nd
Opava – Karvina FC
X2
1.6
1:0
22.13
48
88
0.00
54.55
0.00
73.77
31.05
Aus.
Kapfenberg – Rapid Wien
1X
1.61
0:4
23.13
48
87
0.00
55.17
0.00
77.10
30.05
MLS
New England – DC United
X2
1.5
2:1
24.13
48
86
0.00
55.81
0.00
80.43
30.05
Fra.
St. Etienne – Valenciennes
X2
2.75
4:0
25.13
48
85
0.00
56.47
0.00
83.77
30.05
Rom.
Farul – Gaz Metan
1X
1.5
2:0
26.13
48
84
0.00
57.14
0.00
87.10
30.05
Swi.  
Sion – Bellinzona
X2
1.925
1:1
25.63
47
83
0.00
56.63
0.00
85.43
30.05
Svk.  
Dubnica – Nitra
X2
1.825
4:1
24.71
46
82
0.00
56.10
0.00
82.37
30.05
Serb.
Hajduk Kula – Borac
X2
1.5
2:1
25.71
46
81
0.00
56.79
0.00
85.70
30.05
Blr.
Vitebsk – Mikashevichi
X2
1.78
2:1
26.71
46
80
0.00
57.50
0.00
89.03
30.05
Cze. 
C. Budejovice – Teplice
X2
1.8
3:0
27.71
46
79
0.00
58.23
0.00
92.37
30.05
Isr.
M. Tel Aviv – Ashdod
X2
1.74
1:0
28.71
46
78
0.00
58.97
0.00
95.70
29.05
Jap. 2nd
Kumamoto – Tosu
1X
1:2
29.71
46
77
0.00
59.74
0.00
99.03
29.05
Arg.
Newell’s Old Boys – Arsenal
X2
2.21
1:1
30.71
46
76
0.00
60.53
0.00
102.37
29.05
Fra. 2nd
Boulogne – Amiens
X2
4:0
29.51
45
75
0.00
60.00
0.00
98.37
29.05
Ire.
St. Patricks – Bray
X2
2.29
1:1
30.51
45
74
0.00
60.81
0.00
101.70
29.05
Aus. 2nd
FC Lustenau – W. Neustadt
X2
1.56
0:2
29.22
44
73
0.00
60.27
0.00
97.40
28.05
Ire.
Galway – Derry City
1X
1.99
0:3
28.66
43
72
0.00
59.72
0.00
95.53
28.05
Sing.
Geylang – Sengkang Punggol
X2
1.6
2:0
29.66
43
71
0.00
60.56
0.00
98.87
28.05
Jap. 2nd
Toyama Kataller – Tochigi SC
X2
1.68
0:1
30.66
42
70
0.00
60.00
0.00
102.20
27.05
Copa Libertadores
Caracas FC – Gremio
1X
1.6
1:1
29.98
41
69
0.00
59.42
0.00
99.93
27.05
Bel.
Neman – Naftan
X2
2:0
29.38
40
68
0.00
58.82
0.00
97.93
25.05
Swe.
Gefle – AIK
1X
1.5
1:0
0.25
30.38
12
40
67
17.91
59.70
0.83
101.27
24.05
Arg.
San Martin T. – Gimnasia LP
X2
1.55
0:1
1.25
29.88
12
39
66
18.18
59.09
4.17
99.60
24.05
Bra.
Sport Recife – Atletico-MG
X2
1.83
2:3
2.25
29.33
12
38
65
18.46
58.46
7.50
97.77
24.05
Bra.
Santo André – Flamengo
X2
1.54
1:2
3.25
28.5
12
37
64
18.75
57.81
10.83
95.00
24.05
Swi.  
Xamax – Aarau
X2
3:1
4.25
27.96
12
36
63
19.05
57.14
14.17
93.20
24.05
Swi.  
Young Boys – Luzern
X2
5:2
5.25
28.96
12
36
62
19.35
58.06
17.50
96.53
24.05
Ita.
Siena – Juventus
1X
0:3
6.25
29.96
12
36
61
19.67
59.02
20.83
99.87
24.05
Ita.
Catania – Napoli
X2
3:1
7.25
30.96
12
36
60
20.00
60.00
24.17
103.20
24.05
Eng. League One
Millwall – Scunthorpe
X2
3.2
1.5
2:3
8.25
31.96
12
36
59
20.34
61.02
27.50
106.53
24.05
Sco.
Aberdeen – Hibernian
X2
2:1
9.25
31.46
12
35
58
20.69
60.34
30.83
104.87
23.05
Arg.
Rosario – Huracan
1X
3.2
1.44
1:2
10.25
32.46
12
35
57
21.05
61.40
34.17
108.20
23.05
Hun.
Vasas – Kaposvar
X2
3.2
1.6
2:1
11.25
33.46
12
35
56
21.43
62.50
37.50
111.53
23.05
Swi. 2nd
Winterthur – Concordia
X2
3.25
1.6
4:5
12.25
34.46
12
35
55
21.82
63.64
40.83
114.87
23.05
Slo.
Celje – Koper
X2
3.25
1.54
1:2
13.25
33.86
12
34
54
22.22
62.96
44.17
112.87
23.05
Svk.  
Kosice – Trnava
X2
3.2
1.6
2:1
14.25
33.32
12
33
53
22.64
62.26
47.50
111.07
23.05
Pol. 2nd
Podbeskidzie – Turek
X2
4
2.35
9:0
15.25
34.32
12
33
52
23.08
63.46
50.83
114.40
23.05
Pol. 2nd
Stalowa Wola – Katowice
X2
3.2
1.55
0:0
16.25
35.32
12
33
51
23.53
64.71
54.17
117.73
23.05
Ice.
Keflavik – Fram
X2
3.6
1.94
1:0
14.05
34.77
11
32
50
22.00
64.00
46.83
115.90
23.05
Ukr.
A. Kiev – Karpaty
X2
3.3
1.71
4:0
15.05
35.77
11
31
49
22.45
63.27
50.17
119.23
23.05
Cze.  
Liberec – C. Budejovice
X2
4.33
3.1
2:0
16.05
36.77
11
31
48
22.92
64.58
53.50
122.57
23.05
Cze.  
Pribram – Zizkov
X2
3.5
2.24
3:0
17.05
37.77
11
31
47
23.40
65.96
56.83
125.90
22.05
Ire.
Dundalk FC – St. Patricks
X2
3
1.53
0:1
18.05
38.77
11
31
46
23.91
67.39
60.17
129.23
21.05
Mex.
Indios – Pachuca
1X
3.25
1.57
0:2
19.05
37.24
11
30
45
24.44
66.67
63.50
124.13
21.05
Nor. 2nd
Sarpsborg – Haugesund
1X
3.5
1.54
1:0
20.05
38.24
11
30
44
25.00
68.18
66.83
127.47
21.05
Fin. 2nd
Viikingit – Oulu
1X
3.25
1.44
1:1
21.05
37.8
11
29
43
25.58
67.44
70.17
126.00
21.05
Fin. 2nd
Kiisto Vaasa – Kemi
X2
3.25
1.44
0:2
18.8
37.36
10
28
42
23.81
66.67
62.67
124.53
21.05
Fin. 2nd
PoPa Pori – PK-35
X2
3.25
1.61
1:1
19.8
36.92
10
27
41
24.39
65.85
66.00
123.07
21.05
Aus.
Sturm – Salzburg
X2
3.6
1.85
2:0
17.55
36.31
9
26
40
22.50
65.00
58.50
121.03
21.05
Aus.
LASK Linz – Austria Wien
1X
4
2.3
4:0
18.55
37.31
9
26
39
23.08
66.67
61.83
124.37
20.05
Fin. 2nd
Klubi-04 Helsinki – TPV Tampere
X2
3.4
1.57
1:1
19.55
36.01
9
25
38
23.68
65.79
65.17
120.03
20.05
Slo.
Velenje – Domzale
X2
3.25
1.6
2:2
17.15
35.54
8
24
37
21.62
64.86
57.17
118.47
20.05
Jap. 2nd
Fukuoka – Kofu
1X
3.25
1.5
2:4
14.9
34.94
7
23
36
19.44
63.89
49.67
116.47
17.05
Pol. 2nd
Znicz – Gornik Leczna
X2
3.4
1.7
0:2
15.9
35.94
7
23
35
20.00
65.71
53.00
119.80
17.05
Swe. 2nd
Qviding – Angelholms
1X
3.2
1.53
3:1
16.9
35.24
7
22
34
20.59
64.71
56.33
117.47
17.05
Por. 2nd
Gil Vicente – Aves
X2
2.8
1.55
1:1
17.9
34.81
7
21
33
21.21
63.64
59.67
116.03
17.05
Por. 2nd
Vizela – Portimonense
X2
2.6
1.46
2:2
16.1
34.26
6
20
32
18.75
62.50
53.67
114.20
17.05
Cze. 2nd
Usti n. L. – Vitkovice
X2
3.2
1.55
2:0
14.5
33.76
5
19
31
16.13
61.29
48.33
112.53
17.05
Rom.
Otelul – Unirea
1X
3.2
1.83
0:2
15.5
34.76
5
19
30
16.67
63.33
51.67
115.87
17.05
Ger. 2nd
Oberhausen – Freiburg
1X
3.2
1.5
1:0
16.5
35.76
5
19
29
17.24
65.52
55.00
119.20
16.05
MLS
Salt Lake – Kansas City
X2
3.4
2.05
0:2
17.5
35.26
5
18
28
17.86
64.29
58.33
117.53
16.05
Bra.
Coritiba – Santo André
X2
3.6
1.95
2:4
18.5
34.21
5
17
27
18.52
62.96
61.67
114.03
16.05
Por.
Setubal – Leixoes
X2
3.2
2.05
0:1
19.5
33.26
5
16
26
19.23
61.54
65.00
110.87
16.05
Por.
Maritimo – Sporting
1X
3.5
2.05
1:2
20.5
32.21
5
15
25
20.00
60.00
68.33
107.37
16.05
Ire.
Shamrock – Bohemians D.
1X
3.2
1.71
2:1
21.5
33.21
5
15
24
20.83
62.50
71.67
110.70
16.05
Slo.
Celje – Gorica
X2
3.25
1.7
1:2
22.5
32.5
5
14
23
21.74
60.87
75.00
108.33
16.05
Pol. 2nd
Odra O. – Dolcan Zabki
1X
3.2
1.55
0:0
23.5
31.8
5
13
22
22.73
59.09
78.33
106.00
16.05
Spa. 2nd
Real Sociedad – Albacete
X2
3.4
2.26
1:0
21.3
31.25
4
12
21
19.05
57.14
71.00
104.17
16.05
Isr.
Bnei Sakhnin – M. Netanya
X2
3.1
1.55
0:0
22.3
32.25
4
12
20
20.00
60.00
74.33
107.50
16.05
Swi.  
Bellinzona – Vaduz
X2
4
2.83
3:1
20.2
31.7
3
11
19
15.79
57.89
67.33
105.67
16.05
Slo.
Drava – Velenje
X2
3.3
1.55
2:0
21.2
32.7
3
11
18
16.67
61.11
70.67
109.00
16.05
Ita. 2nd
Avellino – Treviso
X2
4
2.55
1:0
22.2
33.7
3
11
17
17.65
64.71
74.00
112.33
16.05
Pol.
Jagiellonia – Polonia W.
1X
3.3
1.55
2:1
23.2
34.7
3
11
16
18.75
68.75
77.33
115.67
15.05
Ire.
St. Patricks – Sligo
X2
3.1
1.57
2:2
24.3
34.32
3
10
15
20.00
66.67
81.00
114.40
15.05
Rom.
Steaua – Rapid Bucharest
X2
3.4
1.9
1:2
22.2
33.75
2
9
14
14.29
64.29
74.00
112.50
15.05
Pol.
Arka – Ruch
X2
3.4
1.6
1:2
23.2
32.85
2
8
13
15.38
61.54
77.33
109.50
14.05
Ice.
Grindavík – KR Reykiavik
1X
3.4
1.75
0:4
24.2
32.25
2
7
12
16.67
58.33
80.67
107.50
13.05
Dan.
Odense – FC Copenhagen
1X
3.4
1.56
3:2
25.2
33.25
2
7
11
18.18
63.64
84.00
110.83
13.05
Pol. 2nd
Zaglebie – Warta
X2
4.33
3.2
1:2
26.2
32.69
2
6
10
20.00
60.00
87.33
108.97
13.05
Swe. Cup
Mjällby – Hammarby
X2
3.3
1.32
4:2
27.2
30.49
2
5
9
22.22
55.56
90.67
101.63
13.05
Swe. Cup
Sundsvall – Häcken
X2
3.3
1.32
3:5
28.2
31.49
2
5
8
25.00
62.50
94.00
104.97
13.05
Svk.
Dubnica – Dun. Streda
X2
3.25
1.7
3:0
29.2
31.17
2
4
7
28.57
57.14
97.33
103.90
13.05
Hun.
Győr – Haladas
X2
3.4
1.6
3:3
30.2
32.17
2
4
6
33.33
66.67
100.67
107.23
13.05
Fra.
Nancy – Lorient
X2
2.8
1.57
2:2
27.8
31.57
1
3
5
20.00
60.00
92.67
105.23
13.05
Cze. Cup
Slovacko – Slavia Prague
1X
3.4
1.8
2:1
26
31
0
2
4
0.00
50.00
86.67
103.33
13.05
Pol. 2nd
Stalowa Wola – Jastrzebie
X2
3.3
1.7
2:0
27
29.2
0
1
3
0.00
33.33
90.00
97.33
13.05
Pol. 2nd
Dolcan Zabki – Plock
X2
3.25
1.7
1:0
28
30.2
0
1
2
0.00
50.00
93.33
100.67
12.05 Aus. 2nd St. Polten – Admira 1X 3.6 2.2 2:1 29 31.2 0 1 1 0.00 100.00 96.67 104.00

04.06.2009

Mathematics and betting

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , , , — admin @ 12:49

Recently I’ve been reading a post in punterslounge forum about a football rating system. The posts there are really fascinating and throw me in deep thinking about maths and how we use it.

However, I have read only 3 pages until now, because I have other stuff to do, but the post helped me with some fresh ideas, which I am going to give a try.

I was really impressed with how we can use the idea of Gauss about Least Squares Approximations . Right now I have put all other betting stuff aside and just read about this method.

I hope it will help me improve my results, which are quite bad these days.

27.05.2009

A new look into the game

Filed under: Betting — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 15:54

An interesting approach about betting occurred into my mind those days. I was away on travel, but I though a bit for betting. So, the point is for patterns in betting. I’m asking myself: “Is it possible bookies to have on their sheets we will make 23% underdog wins on 3.2 coefficient this year?”.

Sounds a it silly, but who knows.

However, I am checking now first 8 rounds in Finnish 1st Veiskkauliiga and there are some interesting patterns.

12.05.2009

To bet on underdog draws using Betsurf database

Filed under: Betting, Football — Tags: , , , , , , , — admin @ 8:40

I was too excited yesterday, but unfortunately I had to cool my head and to see the reality. The first 11 days of April showed ROI better than 120%, when I checked the system I wrote about yesterday. The result for the whole month are not so good with ROI 98.9%.

However, the system is interesting and I will continue on a paper sheet to see what will happen.

I will follow those matches using pure draw system and Asian handicap for the underdog. 3% of the bank will be used for every bet. Crossing fingers.

26.03.2009

A simple NBA betting system

Filed under: Basketball — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 12:05

No football matches today, so it is perfect time for a NBA post. Now, it is about under-over betting and a system that I use and a system that gives me really good profit. It is really simple. First of all I follow all the matches in the league and write down on an excel table, for every team – is the game finished under or over. Than I calculated the under – over percent for every team and I get something like this – Boston under 56%, over – 44%; New Jersey under 49%; over 51%.

Here comes the simple part of my system. When Boston and New Jersey will play tonight I take a look to my excel table, then considered the match as under, because under percenatage is higher than over’s one for both teams and I bet under for 1.91.

What kind of result I get at the end? It is 50-50, but it is really enough for me to play on martingale (well I had to redesign the system to be more safety, I will write about how I did it in another post) and you get your profit.

As example in the last four days I had 17 correct bets and 14 wrong with this system and I am pretty satisfied.

Oh, I remember something I have to write. This simple system is the best system I’ve ever used. With the same modified martingale system I failed many times with betting only in under, variations in under – over and similar. Now, everything works without a problem.

OK, here comes the numbers. Under – Over percentage for every team in NBA.

Boston 56 44
New Jersey 49 51
New York 51 49
Philadelphia 53 47
Toronto 43 57
Dallas 50 50
Houston 51 49
Memphis 54 46
New Orleans 59 41
San Antonio 52 48
Chicago 45 55
Cleveland 59 41
Detroit 54 46
Indiana 46 54
Milwaukee 43 57
Denver 46 54
Minnesota 49 51
Portland 56 44
Oklahoma 52 48
Utah 51 49
Atlanta 58 42
Charlotte 56 44
Miami 49 51
Orlando 54 46
Washington 54 46
Golden State 42 58
LA Clippers 41 59
LA Lakers 45 55
Phoenix 44 56
Sacramento 46 54

In total Under 50.3, Over 49.7

23.03.2009

Bet on underdog at home! True or false? The answer about NBA

Filed under: Basketball, Betting — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 17:06

I wrote few days ago that I’ve read something about this old betting rule – “Bet on underdog at home”. Is it true? I do not know, but I know it is not true about NBA. I checked the results on this season and here is what I’ve found. Until now there were 307 matches where the underdog was at home. Only 105 of them has finished with home win.

I took the odds from betexplorer.com and also I considered the draws as unfinished result. So the win or lose is decided by overtime. When I use odds from betexplorer, it means that the odds are average odds from all houses which offer NBA matches. I think that of course someone can find better odds, but the final result in my research is enough to be considered as real, pure truth :)

Ok here are the results. If you have bet on every match 1% of your bank you would finish with 307 bets, 105 winning bets, 202 losing bets and ROI – 86.27% which is not good at all.

If you take a look team by team you will find that some of the teams has made more winners than others. Oklahoma has 9 wins, Chicago and Indiana both has 8 wins as underdogs at home. They are followed by Memphis, Charlotte and LA Clippers with 7 wins. New York has 6 wins etc.

So what would happen if one of us has chosen the team with most wins as underdog? The answer is nothing special. This punter would lose some money too. Oklahoma has won those 9 games from 28 as underdog and ROI is almost the same as above – 84.2%.

But, here comes the interesting part. If one of us has bet on every match for Chicago or Indiana as underdog at home, he or she would make some money. Chicago won those 8 games from 14 as underdog at home and brings ROI 145.1%.

Indiana has won those 8 games from 15 and brings ROI 132.8%.

So, this are the results for NBA. I will check some other leagues later and NHL of course. Best luck to everyone :)

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