Today I read an interesting post in Ed’s betting blog about a punter must not bet in French League 1. The reason Ed‘s giving is the fact that the teams are really close in terms of quality and the punter will have a really difficult job to find the winners or at least more difficult than other leagues. Well, he has something in mind and he is right about the quality of the teams. To have a round with 4 derby matches in the league is something quite normal. On the other hand in the 2008/2009 season there were only 26 games where the favorite had less than 1.4 odds for winning the match.
However, I found the post interesting and I decided to check the results from the last season to take a closer look, can a punter make profit from here. I use a really simple method. I have the odds for the favorite grouped in 5 groups – under 1.4, between 1.41 and 1.7; 1.71 – 2; 2.01 – 2.2 and above 2.21, then I look how the favorites finished the match – with win, they lost or the match finished with draw.
Here are the results from League 1 – season 2008/2009:
|
Fav. Odds
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
FW
|
Draw
|
UW
|
|
< 1.4
|
19
|
5
|
2
|
73.08
|
19.23
|
7.69
|
|
1.41 – 1.7
|
44
|
19
|
9
|
61.11
|
26.39
|
12.50
|
|
1.71 – 2
|
40
|
31
|
13
|
47.62
|
36.90
|
15.48
|
|
2.01 – 2.2
|
35
|
27
|
16
|
44.87
|
34.62
|
20.51
|
|
2.21 >
|
55
|
30
|
35
|
45.83
|
25.00
|
29.17
|
When I see that table my first impression is that Ed was not right. There were only two games where the big favorites, with odds under 1.4 lost their matches. 19 winners with the same odds are not enough at all, but the percent is normal, I think. There are two things that surprised me. First, it is the huge percent of wins, taken by favorites in derby matches – with odds higher than 2.21 – 45.83%. This is profit, well, not huge but it is profit. Second, I was surprised to see the draws in sector between 1.71 and 2 coefficient for the favorites. The percent there is 36.9 and here Ed is right. It is really tough to catch a winner, but it is pure profit to bet on draws. I am not sure about the previous seasons, but I will check it later. It will be fun it is correct. Even for martingale.